Improved estimation of portfolio value‐at‐risk under copula models with mixed marginals

Portfolio value‐at‐risk (PVAR) is widely used in practice, but recent criticisms have focused on risks arising from biased PVAR estimates due to model specification errors and other problems. The PVAR estimation method proposed in this article combines generalized Pareto distribution tails with the empirical density function to model the marginal distributions for each asset in the portfolio, and a copula model is used to form a joint distribution from the fitted marginals. The copula–mixed distribution (CMX) approach converges in probability to the true marginal return distribution but is based on weaker assumptions that may be appropriate for the returns data found in practice. CMX is used to estimate the joint distribution of log returns for the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE) index and the associated futures contracts on SGX and TAIFEX. The PVAR estimates for various hedge portfolios are computed from the fitted CMX model, and backtesting diagnostics indicate that CMX outperforms the alternative PVAR estimators. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:997–1018, 2006     

The Impact of Regulation Fair Disclosure on Information Asymmetry and Trading: An Intraday Analysis

This study examines the impact of Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD) on liquidity, information asymmetry, and institutional and retail investors trading behavior. Our main findings suggest three conclusions. First, Regulation FD has been effective in improving liquidity and in decreasing the level of information asymmetry. Second, retail trading activity increases dramatically after earnings announcements but there is a significant decline in institutional trading surrounding earnings announcements, particularly in the pre‐announcement period. Last, the decline in information asymmetry around earnings announcements is closely associated with a lower participation rate in the pre‐announcement period and more active trading of retail investors after earnings releases.     

经济全球化与城市功能

<正> 经济全球化对城市的影响极其深远,它使得世界城市体系形成,大都市连绵区更具活力,首位城市逐渐主宰世界经济,城市功能成为衡量城市竞争力的重要指标。随着中国经济实力的不断增强,参与世界市场的力度增加,中国需要几个国际城市,提高中国城市体系在世界城市体系中的地位。为实现这个目标,中国的大城市应该实行以城市功能高级化为核心的“目标管理”模式。     

德国如何成功举办世界杯足球赛

2006年德国世界杯足球赛是2008年北京奥运会之前全球最大的体育赛事。北京市发改委奥运经济高级顾问黄为专程前往德国，为北京奥运求取真经。[编者按]     

Validating the international tourist role scale

This study was designed to validate the international tourist role scale and the three dimensions it revealed. The purpose of this attitudinal scale was to measure the tourist role typology. United States adult outbound tourists flying with 11 major airlines returned useful questionnaires. This study validated the role scale as a reliable one that properly identified three conceptual dimensions of international tourist typology and successfully provided measures of tourists’ novelty-seeking preferences on the three dimensions. The study demonstrated, however, that the scale would measure the novelty-seeking preferences of international tourists more effectively if it were supplemented by other measures.     

中国农村人口迁移模型探索——一个对"民工荒"现象新的解释

本文构造了一个理论模型,得出了人口流动均衡条件,从而对“民工荒”现象做出了新的解释。本文的结论是迁移成本和就业概率决定了迁移人口的规模;农村工业部门的发展不仅分担城市就业压力,还缩小农民流动规模;农产品价格波动表示的农业剩余波动使得劳动力无限供给神话提前破灭,但并不意味着二元经济的终结。     

市场细分标准的分类与选取

<正>一、市场细分概述市场细分的一般概念最早于1956年由美国市场学家温德尔·斯密(Wendell.Smith)提出来。所谓市场细分就是指按照消费者欲望与需求的差异性把一个总体市场划分成若干个具有共同特征的子市场的过程。有效市场细分准则的要求与市场细分的目的紧密相关,是差异化营销对市场细     

联合国对住房权实现的指标化评估与监控框架

对于一项权利而言,其实现与保障是最为核心和根本的问题。作为一种基本人权的公民住房权,目前在世界各国、尤其是发展中国家面临严峻的挑战。但由于缺乏统一的方法和解决路径,我们无法深入地揭示人类住房权实现与保障中存在的关键性困境和障碍,也就无法有效地推动住房权实现进程。联合国人居署在内罗毕会议上制定了一套具有重要参考价值的住房权指标体系,包含住房适足性指标、强制驱逐指标、露宿指标、平等性指标、法律保障指标、国际融入指标等,为建立普遍适用的住房权评估与监控机制提供了重要的基础框架。该框架还有许多亟待补充和完善之处,但其为推动人类住房权的实现与保障提供了极具价值的计量方法,开启了人类住房权事业的新纪元。     

从京、沪、深高新技术产业发展的特点及演化看政府与制度创新

高新技术产业是我国产业发展的方向,北京、上海和深圳在高新技术产业的规模和发展速度上在全国名列前茅.北京、上海和深圳的高新技术产业发展,为我国高新技术产业发展提供了有益的经验.     

Inflation Returns

China's November economic data suggests continued strong growth momentum.Industrial production rose by 19.2% year-on-year (y/y), well above the market consensus.Retail sales growth (15.8% y/y) remained healthy, despite being a bit lower than October (likely due to a holiday-effect distortion).