Foresight in the Brussels Capital Region

This paper presents results from the Iris Futures research project. The research was aimed at exploring the potential role of foresight in the development of the Brussels Capital Region and the identification of tools, capabilities and conditions for an improved application of foresight in Brussels. An overview was created of the characteristics of 60 future oriented activities and 120 organisations involved in such activities At the outset questions on organisational or institutional fragmentation and collaboration were not intended to be in the foreground of the research but over the course of the research this issue was observed to have a significant adverse impact on foresight capacity in Brussels. The case of the Brussels Capital Region demonstrates that institutional and organisational fragmentation need to be overcome for a futures oriented practice to have opportunity. De-fragmentation, bottom-up and institutionally, is both a condition for and an effect of the futures oriented practice underlying the foresight capacity of organisations.     

The Allocation of German Aid: Self‐interest and Government Ideology

We investigate the importance of geo‐strategic and commercial motives for the allocation of German aid to 138 countries over the 1973–2010 period. We find that geo‐strategic and commercial motives matter. When we relate them to the political color of the German government in general, and the Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Federal Foreign Office in particular, we find their importance to be at least as strong under the socialist leadership. Socialist leadership decreases the amount of aid commitments, controlled for other factors.     

Time series copulas for heteroskedastic data

We propose parametric copulas that capture serial dependence in stationary heteroskedastic time series. We suggest copulas for first‐order Markov series, and then extend them to higher orders and multivariate series. We derive the copula of a volatility proxy, based on which we propose new measures of volatility dependence, including co‐movement and spillover in multivariate series. In general, these depend upon the marginal distributions of the series. Using exchange rate returns, we show that the resulting copula models can capture their marginal distributions more accurately than univariate and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models, and produce more accurate value‐at‐risk forecasts.     

Minimum wage or negative income tax: why skilled workers may favor wage rigidities

In this article, we analyze the political choice of the extent and means of income redistribution between high and low-skilled workers. Redistributive tools encompass both fiscal transfers (a negative income tax) and a minimum wage requirement. We assume the use of fiscal instruments alone to be the first-best means of redistribution. We show that high-skilled workers may favor a second-best, minimum wage requirement because it increases unemployment, hence raising the marginal cost of redistribution, and creates a justification for them to moderate low-skilled workers’ claim for redistribution.      

Rising Income Inequality: Do Not Draw the Obvious Conclusions

Inequality is dominating the political debate in various countries still characterised by sluggish economic recovery and high unemployment. The drivers of higher income inequality since 1995 have been globalisation, technological change and migration. At the same time, these factors have had an undeniably positive impact on aggregate income. While populist parties advocate more nationalistic-oriented approaches, we argue that the appropriate policy response to this dilemma is to alleviate the social costs of globalisation rather than rejecting the aggregate economic benefit.     

Linking Human Resource Development Practices to Counterproductive Work Behaviour: Does Employee Engagement Matter

ABSTRACT

Although there is strong evidence in the literature to support the relationship between human resource development (HRD) practices and counterproductive work behavior (CWB), little is known about the psychological processes underlying this relationship. The present study examined whether employee engagement mediates the relationship between HRD practices and CWB. Participants were 271 employees enroled in a part-time Master of Business Administration (MBA) program at a large public university in Nigeria. After controlling for demographic characteristics, results showed that HRD practices were negatively related to CWB. The results also indicated that employee engagement plays a role in mediating the relationship between HRD practices and CWB.     

The Euro — A Tale of 20 Years: What Are the Priorities Going Forward?

Intereconomics - First, we need to recall the initial objectives set for the euro and how these have changed over time, notably due to the weaknesses that came to the fore throughout the recent...     

When hedonic products help regulate my mood

This paper analyzes how affect mechanisms work when consumers form their attitude toward and intention to purchase a hedonic product. The first of two studies shows that when products have the potential to improve moods, affect regulation dominates affective evaluation in forming purchase intentions. In other words, the need to repair one??s mood overrides mood-congruent reviews. However, the affect regulation mechanism is not very stable, and study two shows that introducing a competing source of information, such as product reviews, overwhelms the effect. Results show that when consumers are in a bad mood, product reviews significantly influence their attitude and purchase intention regarding a hedonic product. However, this effect is not significant for consumers in a positive mood because they generate both arguments and counterarguments that compensate for the information received from a third party.     

LATIN AMERICAN EXCHANGE RATE DEPENDENCIES: A REGULAR VINE COPULA APPROACH

This study implements a regular vine copula methodology to evaluate the level of contagion among the exchange rates of six Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru) from June 2005 to April 2012. We measure contagion in terms of tail dependence coefficients, following Fratzscher's (1999) definition of contagion as interdependence. Our results indicate that these countries are divided into two blocks. The first block consists of Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Mexico, whose exchange rates exhibit the largest dependence coefficients, and the second block consists of Argentina and Peru, whose exchange rate dependence coefficients with other Latin American countries are low. We also found that most of the Latin American exchange rate pairs exhibit asymmetric behaviors characterized by nonsignificant upper tail dependence and significant lower tail dependence. These results imply that there exists contagion in Latin American exchange rates in periods of large appreciations, whereas there is no evidence of contagion during periods of currency depreciation. This empirical regularity may reflect the “fear of appreciation” in emerging economies identified by Levy‐Yeyati, Sturzenegger, and Gluzmann (2013). (JEL C32, C51, E42)