Constant supervision of bathing in French public swimming pools: an unrealistic regulatory requirement?

In France, to prevent drowning accidents in public swimming pools (PSPs), bathing must be constantly supervised by qualified staff. However, fatal drowning regularly occurs in supervised aquatic facilities. A review of the literature shows that human supervision is a complex task. The aim of this research is to fully assess the periods during which supervision is not carried out, or carried out in an inadequate manner. The observations made in 108 French PSPs show that supervision is not carried out 18% of the time and that it is carried out inadequately 33% of the time. The medical literature shows that, in order to expect to survive without after-effects, an immersed victim requires intervention within a time limit of not more than three minutes; however, we noted, over a total observation time of 54 hours, 147 periods (29.8%) during which the supervision system was degraded for three minutes or more. This quantification research on the periods of degraded supervision is complemented by an identification of the causes leading to these degradations, from which we can draw interesting areas for improvement, particularly from an organizational point of view, in order to improve safety management in French PSPs.     

El trabajo y las normas internacionales de contabilidad. Una cuestión de justicia social

Como garante internacional de la justicia social, la OIT se enfrenta a una revolución contable que ha culminado con la formulación de las Normas Internacionales de Contabilidad (NIC-NIIF). Antiguamente, la contabilidad medía la economía en relación con las capacidades y responsabilidades de los trabajadores y de sus empleadores. Hoy las NIC-NIIF han perdido el sentido de la medida del trabajo y de la empresa al tomar esta como una entidad cibernética capaz de reorganizarse indefinidamente a costa de infinitas desigualdades. El autor señala las incoherencias de este modelo y demuestra la necesidad de restituir el valor contable del trabajo.     

From wheel of fortune to wheel of misfortune: Financial crises,cycles, and consumer predation

Predator–prey dynamics are widely used in ecology but seldom utilized in economics and marketing, despite their ability to express financial market agents' behaviors when considered in combination with economic cycles and financial crises. This multidisciplinary article presents a stylized framework of a market cycle that combines the notions of supply and demand and predator–prey interactions between buyers and sellers of housing mortgages. We illustrate our framework using data from the Global Financial Crisis and a Lotka-Volterra predator–prey model. We find that with our framework we can capture the dynamics of the market, particularly the peak and decline in the number of sellers and sold subprime mortgages. Our framework sheds a new light on consumer behaviors, pinpointing how they can put themselves into vulnerable prey positions. This article is one of the first of its kind to propose market phases and predator–prey dynamics nested in economic cycles and consumer buying trends.     

This Time Is the Same: Using Bank Performance in 1998 to Explain Bank Performance during the Recent Financial Crisis

Are some banks prone to perform poorly during crises? If yes, why? In this paper, we show that a bank's stock return performance during the 1998 crisis predicts its stock return performance and probability of failure during the recent financial crisis. This effect is economically large. Our findings are consistent with persistence in a bank's risk culture and/or aspects of its business model that make its performance sensitive to crises. Banks that relied more on short‐term funding, had more leverage, and grew more are more likely to be banks that performed poorly in both crises.     

Yesterday's Heroes: Compensation and Risk at Financial Firms

Many believe that compensation, misaligned from shareholders’ value due to managerial entrenchment, caused financial firms to take risks before the financial crisis of 2008. We argue that, even in a classical principal‐agent setting without entrenchment and with exogenous firm risk, riskier firms may offer higher total pay as compensation for the extra risk in equity stakes borne by risk‐averse managers. Using long lags of stock price risk to capture exogenous firm risk, we confirm our conjecture and show that riskier firms are also more productive and more likely to be held by institutional investors, who are most able to influence compensation.     

Supply‐Side Policies in the Depression: Evidence from France

The effects of supply‐side policies in depressed economies are controversial. We shed light on this debate using evidence from France in the 1930s. In 1936, France departed from the gold standard and implemented mandatory wage increases and hours restrictions. Deflation ended but output stagnated. We present time‐series and cross‐sectional evidence that these supply‐side policies, in particular the 40‐hour law, contributed to French stagflation. These results are inconsistent both with the standard one‐sector New Keynesian model and with a medium scale, multisector model calibrated to match our cross‐sectional estimates. We conclude that the New Keynesian model is a poor guide to the effects of supply‐side shocks in depressed economies.     

Restaurant Prices and the Minimum Wage

In this paper, we examine the effect of the minimum wage on restaurant prices. We contribute both to the study of economic impact of the minimum wage and to the study of microeconomic patterns of price stickiness. For this purpose, we use a unique data set of individual price quotes collected to calculate the Consumer Price Index in France and we estimate a price rigidity model based on a flexible rule. We find a positive and significant impact of the minimum wage on prices. The effect of the minimum wage on prices is, however, very protracted. A change in the minimum wage takes more than a year to fully pass through to retail prices.     

Risk in Dynamic Arbitrage: The Price Effects of Convergence Trading

I develop an equilibrium model of convergence trading and its impact on asset prices. Arbitrageurs optimally decide how to allocate their limited capital over time. Their activity reduces price discrepancies, but their activity also generates losses with positive probability, even if the trading opportunity is fundamentally riskless. Moreover, prices of identical assets can diverge even if the constraints faced by arbitrageurs are not binding. Occasionally, total losses are large, making arbitrageurs' returns negatively skewed, consistent with the empirical evidence. The model also predicts comovement of arbitrageurs' expected returns and market liquidity.     

De Ginebra a San José: las normas de la OIT y el sistema interamericano de protección de los derechos humanos

Los autores analizan cómo los órganos interamericanos de derechos humanos utilizan las normas de la OIT como referencia en asuntos de libertad sindical y de asociación y derechos de los pueblos indígenas. Exponen los límites del método por litispendencia y competencia y analizan cómo estas normas han influido en la reciente jurisprudencia interamericana sobre ciertos derechos económicos, sociales y culturales. Defienden la conveniencia de este método de referencias cruzadas, que permite a los órganos interamericanos basarse en interpretaciones autorizadas, al tiempo que aumenta la credibilidad, la legitimidad normativa y la universalidad de sus decisiones.     

Endogenous Growth and Real Effects of Monetary Policy: R&D and Physical Capital Complementarities

We study the real long-run effects of the structural stance of monetary policy and of inflation, in the context of a monetary growth model where R&D is complemented with physical capital accumulation. We look into the effects on a set of real macroeconomic variables that have been of interest to policymakers—the economic growth rate, real interest rate, physical investment rate, capital-to-labor ratio, R&D intensity, and velocity of money. These variables have been previously analyzed from the perspective of different, separated, strands of the theoretical and empirical literature. Additionally, we analyze the long-run relationship between inflation and both the effectiveness of real industrial-policy shocks and the market structure, assessed namely by average firm size. We present novel cross-country evidence on the empirical relationship between the latter and long-run inflation.