Portfolio optimization under model uncertainty and BSDE games

We consider robust optimal portfolio problems for markets modeled by (possibly non-Markovian) Itô–Lévy processes. Mathematically, the situation can be described as a stochastic differential game, where one of the players (the agent) is trying to find the portfolio that maximizes the utility of her terminal wealth, while the other player (“the market”) is controlling some of the unknown parameters of the market (e.g., the underlying probability measure, representing a model uncertainty problem) and is trying to minimize this maximal utility of the agent. This leads to a worst case scenario control problem for the agent. In the Markovian case, such problems can be studied using the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman–Isaacs (HJBI) equation, but these methods do not work in the non-Markovian case. We approach the problem by transforming it into a stochastic differential game for backward stochastic differential equations (a BSDE game). Using comparison theorems for BSDEs with jumps we arrive at criteria for the solution of such games in the form of a kind of non-Markovian analogue of the HJBI equation. The results are illustrated by examples.     

Regulations for the Eighth International Congress of Actuaries

Abstract

The present paper proposes and investigates a procedure for numerical evaluation of the transition probabilities for a time-inhomogeneous Markov process when the intensities are known (estimated). The procedure is based on Taylor-expansion of the transition probabilities linked with the Chapman-Kolmogorov equations.     

Knowledge flows through social networks in a cluster: Comparing university and industry links

Knowledge spillovers from a university to the local industry play an important role in high-technology clusters, but we know little about these spillovers. This paper examines empirically the extent of informal contacts between employees in firms and local university researchers in a wireless communications cluster. Furthermore, it analyses the features of an engineer who acquires knowledge from these informal contacts. The university–industry contacts are compared to results for informal contacts between employees in firms. The research shows that the interfirm informal contacts are more numerous than university informal contacts. Likewise, knowledge is more frequently acquired from engineers in other firms than through university–industry contacts. However, not all engineers in the cluster have informal contacts or acquire knowledge through these. Engineers who have participated in formal projects with university researchers and engineers who are educated at the local university have a higher likelihood of acquiring knowledge from informal contacts with university researchers.     

Default premia on European government debt

Default Premia on European Government Debt. — This paper addresses the question of the existence and size of a risk premium in the Eurobond market. We measure the yield difference between German government bonds and bonds issued in Deutsche Mark by several European countries. The results are regressed against macroeconomic variables supposed to be determinants of the risk of default on government debt. Our yield differences are smaller than those found between US states. However, some of our macroeconomic variables seem to be good predictors of yield differentials. A conclusion is that yield differentials partially are related to risks perceived by market participants.     

Transaction services and SME internationalization: The effect of home and host country bank relationships on international investment and growth

Building on the argument put forward by North and Wallis (1994) that the transaction sector enables economic growth by lowering the costs of transacting, we investigate how internationalizing firms’ host and home country bank relationships affect their international specific investments and growth. Banks provide payment, liquidity, and risk management services, which are essential to international business relationships, yet little is known about how banks affect international business relationships. In a sample of 255 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), we find that host and home country bank relationships affect the dependent variables differently. We contribute to the literature by explicating the role and effects of banks in international business relationships. Our findings have implications for understanding transaction services in international business as well as the choices made by their customers.     

Exchange rate versus inflation targeting: a theory of output fluctuations in traded and non-traded sectors

This paper develops a basic model for output fluctuations in traded and non-traded sectors under two alternative monetary policy regimes; exchange rate targeting (or monetary union) and inflation targeting. The conventional wisdom from one-sector models says that inflation targeting gives better output stabilization than exchange rate targeting when demand shocks occur, but the opposite when supply shocks occur. In a model with a traded and a non-traded sector, we show that the conventional wisdom holds for the non-traded sector. However, for the traded sector, we show that inflation targeting destabilizes output compared with exchange rate targeting when both supply and demand shocks occur. The only shocks where inflation targeting provides the better output stability for the traded sector are shocks to world market prices. The two-sector structure introduces new mechanisms that may turn around earlier results for aggregate production. For instance, a demand shock may induce higher aggregate output fluctuations with inflation targeting than with exchange rate targeting. Furthermore, a positive demand shock may prove to be contractionary under inflation targeting.     

Cognitive,Emotional, and Sociocultural Processes in Consumption

This article examines deliberative, emotional, and sociocultural processes in consumption. The authors draw upon basic processes from two leading theories in social psychology, the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and the model of goal‐directed behavior (MGB), to develop a comprehensive approach to decision making more appropriate for many consumption decisions, and revise the representation and modeling of key variables to better reflect how social psychological processes relate to consumer behavior. A survey was conducted among real adult consumers of bacalhau in Portugal. Because it is most common for women to prepare bacalhau meals in Portugal, 153 female participants were recruited for this survey. The results show that the TPB, and especially the MGB, are found to explain food consumption decisions well but only after the approaches are modified in form and content to accommodate the complex emotional and social aspects of the consumption context. The results also show that the effects of key determinants of desire in the MGB are contingent on the traits of food involvement and cultural orientation (i.e., degree of vertical individualism). The approach taken herein overcomes limitations of existing theories by synthesizing relevant processes across two leading theories and by introducing new variables and processes, thereby showing that the organization of these processes and their contingency on cultural variables regulate consumption.     

The Path to Service Encounter Performance in Public and Private ‘Bureaucracies’

This article examines the evolution of building societies against a background of environmental change. By the application of specific analytical measures developed by Ansoff five distinct periods of change can be isolated. Key events in the environment have become progressively more novel, less predictable and costlier to deal with, which, in turn, has necessitated both operational and strategic redirection.     

Knowledge of Inter-customer Relations as a Source of Value Creation and Commitment in Financial Service Firm's Intermediation

This paper develops a knowledge perspective on value creation in organisations that employ mediating technology to facilitate inter-customer relations. Mediators, individually and collectively, build networks of customers between whom linking can take place, and they provide services that facilitate inter-customer exchanges. Earlier research has shown the importance of size and standardisation in mediation. A different stream of research has shown that contextual knowledge is important for problem solving and innovation in organisations. Combining theories of mediating technology and situated problem solving, the paper posits that inter-customer relations constitute the fundamental context for value creation of firms using the mediating technology. LISREL is used to test relationship-level, cross-sectional hypotheses that link knowledge of inter-customer relationships, added value, and customer commitment to bank services for small firms. This work extends Thompson's work on mediating technology with implications for organisation action by demonstrating that mediators' knowledge of inter-customer relationships is an important resource in intermediation. Three contributions are made to strategic management and organisation theory. First, the paper provides a deeper understanding of the relationship between knowledge and committed customers. Second, fundamental resources are developed for firms using mediating technology. Finally, the use of the situated knowledge concept is extended to inter-customer relations, thus explaining performance beyond the contexts to which the concept has previously been applied. The findings have implications for segmentation practices, organisation domain decisions and the corresponding organisational structures, and practices that can provide effective service to inter-customer relations rather than to atomistic independent customers.     

A passage to India: A dual case study of activities,processes and resources in offshore outsourcing of advanced services

Research has shown that offshore outsourcing processes may influence the behavior and strategic choices of firms, but little is known about the determining factors that influence the evolution and outcomes of those processes. Furthermore, longitudinal studies able to generate such insights are lacking. This paper suggests a detailed, activity-based approach to the study of the process of offshore outsourcing of high-value, advanced service activities. While earlier research has considered either firm-internal or firm-external sources of resource building, this study offers a more comprehensive theoretical model that combines resource-based theory and international business network theory. It aims to investigate how determinants of the offshore outsourcing process contribute to the resource stocks of client firms. Based on two longitudinal case studies of offshore outsourcing to India, the study finds that offshore outsourcing operations, in general, make positive contributions to the resource stocks of client firms. Some determinants contribute to the building of resources (partnership commitment decisions, knowledge creation and learning, trust building, the interconnectedness of resources) while others impede resource building (time compression diseconomies, lack of resource mass efficiencies). Notably, the interconnectedness among onshore activities, offshore activities and the underpinning knowledge resources reduces the risk of erosion of client firm resources, although this remains a long-term risk.