Do Stock Index Futures Affect Economic Growth? Evidence from 32 Countries

This article investigates the relationship between stock index futures markets development and economic growth using time-series methods for 32 developed and developing countries. Evidence of cointegration between stock index futures and real economy in 29 countries suggests the presence of co-movements among the variables, indicating long-run stationarity in those countries. Our findings show that there is Granger-causality from stock index futures markets development to economic growth for middle-income countries with relatively low real per capita GDP, and Granger-causality in the reverse direction for the countries with high real per capita GDP. Variance decomposition and impulse-response function (IRF) analyses results support the existence of a relationship between stock index futures and real economy.     

Output–employment relationship across employment status: evidence from Turkey

This paper investigates output–employment relationships across different employment statuses and formal versus informal employment divisions for Turkey. Even if we fail to find a long-run relationship between aggregate output and total employment, there are long-run relationships between the aggregate output with all of the formal employment statuses. A further investigation for short-run relationships reveals no statistically significant relationships between aggregate output and total employment and between aggregate output and casual employment but there is a significant short-run relationship between aggregate output and total regular employment. Thus, a sustainable economic growth policy should aim to create formal and regular employment.     

Term structure modelling with observable state variables

This paper proposes and implements a parsimonious three-factor model of the term structure whose dynamics is driven uniquely by observable state variables. This approach allows comparing alternative views on the way state variables – macroeconomic variables, in particular – influence the yield curve dynamics, avoids curse of dimensionality problems, and provides more reliable inference by using both the cross-sectional and the time series dimension of the data. I simulate the small-sample properties of the procedure and conduct in- and out-of-sample studies using a comprehensive set of US data. I show that even a parsimonious model where the level, slope and curvature factors of the term structure are driven by, respectively, inflation, monetary policy and economic activity consistently outperforms the (latent-variable) benchmark model in an out-of-sample study.     

MICRO CREDIT RISK METRICS: A COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW

Default modelling is a general term used for several interrelated fields of risk management. Bond defaults, credit (loan) defaults, firm defaults and country defaults are examples of this kind. The scope and reason for existence of this study is to focus mainly on firm default. The purpose of this review is to shed light on the development and evaluation of the models proposed for predicting bankruptcy in terms of conceptualization, country distribution, sector specification, time dimension, variables used and findings reported. The current review includes firm default studies published in business fields such as accounting, economics, finance and management science. This review is distinct in that it seeks (i) to give a comprehensive examination of the models, (ii) to compare and contrast the features of the models and (iii) to show with a solid argument where future research should be focused. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Visualizing financial success: planning is key

Recent economic troubles in the US and abroad highlight the importance of family financial capability, including an understanding of financial markets. Financial capability is the foundation for desired financial behaviours, such as saving, budgeting, using credit wisely and planning. Study participants, a subsample of respondents to a Turkish university financial literacy survey (n = 374), who reported uninterrupted income for a 3‐year period were grouped as ‘planners’ and ‘non‐planners’. These groupings allowed examination of the relationships between planning, financial management decisions, and differential outcomes in daily household financial well‐being. The practice of preferred financial management behaviours was predictive of debt. This research makes a unique contribution to the literature, demonstrating the importance of uninterrupted income over income amount in support of the planning process. Findings of this study have implications for professionals in the family and consumer sciences field and other practitioners assisting consumers with improving financial management outcomes.     

Legitimacy building strategies in conditions of discretionary legal enforcement: A logic of social action approach

The present study explores strategies used to legitimize the transfer of organizational practices in a situation of institutional upheaval. We apply the logic of social action (Risse, 2000) to analyze the effectiveness of consequence-based action and communication-based action, in terms of higher coordination, lower conflict, and overall higher economic performance. Consequence-based legitimation is obtained by using a system of distributor incentives tied to performance of specific tasks, while communicative legitimation can be achieved by recommendations and warnings. Our setting is an export channel to European emerging economies. Our results indicate that in the absence of legitimacy, as manifested in discretionary legal enforcement, consequence-based legitimation is more effective than communicative legitimation in reducing conflict, increasing coordination, and ultimately in improving the performance of the export dyad.     

BANK PERFORMANCE,FINANCIAL STABILITY AND MARKET CONCENTRATION: EVIDENCE FROM COOPERATIVE AND NON‐COOPERATIVE BANKS

Relying upon highly territorially disaggregated data taken at labour market areas, the paper explores the relationship between bank performances and financial stability of the banking system taking into account the role of market concentration. The z‐score is used as financial stability indicator, while the performance of financial intermediaries is measured using a parametric method recently developed (Kumbhakar et al. 2014). The empirical evidence shows a positive relationship between bank performance and financial stability and supports the ‘concentration–stability’ view for non‐cooperative banks only when concentration is measured on the whole sample of banks. Differences in the performance–stability nexus seem to depend more on the type of banks rather than different levels of market concentration. Higher market concentration of cooperative banks affects systemic stability by reducing the z‐scores of non‐cooperative banks, supporting the hypothesis that the presence of non‐profit‐maximizing entities can pull down stability of other financial institutions.     

Determinants of agro-food trade competition of Central European countries with the European Union

The two-way trade flows are classified into four competition categories: successful price competition when trade surplus is at lower export than import price, unsuccessful price competition when trade deficit is at higher export than import price, successful quality competition when trade surplus is at higher export than import price, and unsuccessful quality competition when trade deficit is at lower export than import price. Using a panel dataset of determinants of agro-food trade competition between the five Central European Countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia) and the European Union, we found the effect of trade balance on trade competition to be more significant than the effect of export–import unit values. Natural, and to a lesser extent human factor endowments increase price and quality competition and reduce unsuccessful price and quality competition. R&D expenditures improve quality competition and reduce price competition. Foreign direct investment reduces unsuccessful price competition and increases unsuccessful quality competition. The size of the economy improves price competition and reduces quality competition. Consumer demands associated with higher level of income per capita increase unsuccessful price and quality competition.     

Beyond informality: effectiveness of a new actor for representing call centre workers in Turkey

This article explores the organisational dynamics of the ‘Association of Call Centre Workers’ and aims to discover the effectiveness and sustainability of it as a new actor for representing the interests of call centre workers in Turkey. While traditional trade unions have fundamental problems such as efficacy and representation of various worker groups in changing workplaces, in the Turkish context, they have additional difficulties based on structural and legal constraints. Call centre workers seldom utilise the formal representation channels because of these and some other individual reasons such as a lack of information about their rights and labour movements. Moving from the importance of analysing the informal worker organisational dynamics in the case of a new trade union for call centre workers, the emphasis of the research is on the ability of the Association to develop a form of resistance and representation for the previously unrepresented.