Does the expectation or realization of a federal election precipitate Canadian output growth?

Abstract This paper asks whether Canadian data is consistent with the predicted effects of political opportunism, partisanship, and political competition on real output growth since Confederation. Using annual data from 1870 to 2005 we find new support for an opportunistic electoral cycle in Canadian data but only if the actual election date used in most studies is replaced by an estimate of the incumbent governing party's subjectively held likelihood of an election arising. In our case the estimate is generated from a Cox‐proportional hazard model. The paper explores in detail the issues raised by using a generated regressor to approximate a subjectively held expectation versus an observable proxy and argues that these conditions are met in our case. Finally we also find evidence consistent with partisan cycles in the data but much less evidence consistent with the hypothesis that changes in the degree of political competition have affected real output growth.     

Trust types,distrust, and performance outcomes in small business relationships: the pharmacy–drug warehouse case

This study attempts to investigate the linkage among trust types, distrust, and relationship performance outcomes in the context of long-term supply agreement-type alliances between small business dyads. The results suggest a significant positive relationship among goodwill trust and risk-taking tendency, cooperation, satisfaction, and conflict resolution and a negative relationship between goodwill trust and transaction costs. Competence trust is found to have a positive relationship with cooperation, conflict resolution, and satisfaction and a negative relationship with transaction costs. However, no significant relationship is found between competence trust and risk-taking tendency. Distrust, on the other hand, is found to have a negative relationship with cooperation, satisfaction, and conflict resolution and a significant positive relationship with transaction costs with no effect on risk-taking tendency.     

Social Marketing and Privately Held Companies: The Impact of Corporate Social Responsibility Activities on Romanian Consumers

The notion of corporate social responsibility has evolved into a fairly complex concept that can influence the very world we live in. Today's society is interested not only in companies' financial results but also in the way they conduct their businesses. Corporations everywhere try to respond to new environmental challenges by actively engaging in the life of the community and by developing relationships based on mutual trust with consumers. This article introduces the corporate social responsibility domain by underlining the importance of this concept to the later development of a company. The article denounces the results of research conducted on Romanian consumers regarding corporate social responsibility campaigns undergone by firms in Romania. Its purpose is to bring insight into Romanian consumers' perceptions of recent social campaigns, reviewing the extent to which these consumers are willing to become involved in society's well-being. The survey conducted here attempts to provide answers to issues that concern the companies' involvement type, their purview, the reasons for participating in society's welfare, as well as the social campaigns' most common action areas. The results gathered show that corporate social responsibility is not only a promotion method, but a method that implies the effective involvement in the life of the community and in its subsequent issues, therefore representing a real means of support for the economic development of the community in question. In conclusion, companies must put their social conscience into use when dealing with their clients and stakeholders, by offering solutions to environmental concerns, resource management, mutual aid, and welfare rising from corporate support.     

European Enlargement and Agro‐Food Trade

This paper investigates the level, composition, and differences in the dynamics of revealed comparative advantage and trade specialization patterns of the 12 new member states (NMS‐12) as part of the enlarged European Union 27 countries (EU‐27). The NMS‐12 are classified into four country groups: the Baltic States, the CEFTA‐5, and the Mediterranean and the Balkan regions. The empirical analysis employs a regression framework, a duration analysis, Markov transition probability matrices, and mobility indices. Trade increases with the EU enlargement and so does revealed comparative advantage in agro‐food products. There are catching‐up difficulties, as indicated by revealed comparative advantage, in higher added‐value processed products. Le présent article examine le degré, la composition et les différences de la dynamique des avantages comparatifs révélés ainsi que les caractéristiques de la spécialisation du commerce des douze nouveaux pays membres (NPM‐12) de l'Union européenne élargie (UE–27). Les 12 nouveaux pays membres sont divisés en quatre groupes: les États baltiques, les cinq pays membres de l'ALECE, la région de la Méditerranée et la région des Balkans. L'analyse empirique utilise un modèle de régression, une analyse de durée, des matrices de probabilités des transitions (Markov) et des indices de mobilité. Les échanges augmentent avec l'élargissement de l'UE tout comme les avantages comparatifs révélés des produits agroalimentaires. On observe des difficultés de rattrapage, comme l'indique l'avantage comparatif révélé, dans le cas des produits transformés à forte valeur ajoutée.     

Impact of conversion to Critical Access Hospital status on hospital efficiency

This study examines the impact of Critical Access Hospital (CAH) Program on hospital efficiency using a two-stage approach, where data envelopment analysis is used in the first stage to estimate cost, technical, and allocative efficiency scores of a sample of rural hospitals. Densities of efficiency scores of CAHs and prospectively paid rural hospitals are estimated and compared using a nonparametric kernel density estimator and a bootstrap-based test. In the second stage, efficiency scores are regressed on environmental variables using bootstrapped truncated regressions. Density analysis and results from bootstrapped truncated regressions show that CAHs are less cost and allocatively efficient compared to prospectively paid rural hospitals, without being less technically efficient. Relative to their pre-conversion selves, CAHs appear to be slightly less allocatively efficient, while they are slightly more technically efficient and no less cost efficient. Overall, our results suggest that the CAH Program may have decreased the allocative and cost efficiencies of those rural hospitals that converted to CAH status relative to prospectively paid rural hospitals, without significantly increasing their technical efficiency.     

Entrepreneurship and regional dynamics: the case of Chile

ABSTRACT

During the last 20 years, social and political consensus has afforded the successful gradual implementation of entrepreneurship policy in Chile, transforming the country into one of the world’s most productive entrepreneurship ecosystems. However, the excessive political and economic centralization that has characterized Chile raises the question of whether spatial dependence influences entrepreneurship and what factors have led to this condition. By applying spatial econometric tools to data from 320 districts in Chile during the period 2013–2014, we conclude that there is spatial dependence among districts in Chile in relation to the creation of new businesses and that the immigrant population, the presence of different categories of universities and local patenting capacity are the variables with the greatest positive effect on this dependence.     

Effects of US interest rates and news on the daily interest rates of a highly indebted emerging economy: evidence from Turkey

It has been widely demonstrated that asset prices react sensitively to macroeconomic news releases both in the industrialized countries and emerging markets. However, there are contradicting results on the effects of changes in interest rates of industrialized countries on asset prices of emerging markets. In heavily indebted economies, in addition to these factors, political news and announcements from international institutions that may increase or decrease concerns about debt sustainability can affect asset prices as well. This potential notwithstanding, there has been relatively limited empirical work on the effects of such variables. The objective of this study is to quantify the impact of all of these factors on interest rates of a highly indebted emerging economy. Using daily post-crisis data of the Turkish economy we show that both good and bad political news, International Monetary Fund announcements, and European Union related news significantly affected secondary market government securities yields, whereas volatility of yields was affected mainly by bad news releases. Changes in US Treasury bond rates and ‘appetite’ for risk of foreign investors did not affect government securities yields in the period analysed.     

Stochastic optimization applied to self-financing portfolio: does bequest matter?

The article studies stochastic optimization of an intertemporal consumption model to allocate financial assets between risky and risk-free assets. We use a stochastic optimization technique, in which utility is maximized subject to a self-financing portfolio constraint. The papers in literature have estimated the errors of Euler equations using data from financial markets. It has been shown that it is sufficient to test the first order Euler equation implied by the model. However, they all assume a constant consumption–wealth ratio that constrains the boundary conditions, hence influencing the coefficient of the risk premium. The main contribution of our article is that we drop the assumption of a constant consumption–wealth ratio. We have an analytical solution using a utility maximization model with a stochastic self-financing portfolio. We introduce a terminal condition of wealth with and without bequests. We also simulate the stochastic optimization with a self-financing portfolio, distinguishing risk neutral investors (γ-low) from high risk averse investors (γ-high). We show that the model with bequest has a higher level of wealth and a smoother decline of consumption over time than the model with no bequest at the end of the period. The model with no bequest has the same level of consumption and a sharp fall at the end of the period. Risk averse agents with high return assets have a higher amount of wealth than risk-neutral agents with lower return assets.     

Emerging market sovereign spreads,global financial conditions and U.S. macroeconomic news

We investigate the impact of global financial conditions, U.S. macroeconomic news and domestic fundamentals on the evolution of EMBI spreads for a panel of 18 emerging market (EM) countries using daily data. To this end, we consider not only the conventional panel cointegration procedures but also the recent common correlated effects method to tackle cross-section dependence that may stem from common global shocks such as contagion. The results suggest that the long-run evolution of EMBI spreads depends on global financial conditions, crises contagion and domestic fundamentals proxied by sovereign ratings. The results from panel equilibrium correction models suggest that EMBI spreads respond substantially also to U.S. macroeconomic news and changes in the Federal Reserve's target interest rates. The magnitude and the sign of the effect of the U.S. news, however, crucially depend on the state of the U.S. economy, such as the presence of inflation dominance.     

Innovation and University‐Firm R&D Collaboration in the European Food and Drink Industry

In the National Innovation System (NIS), knowledge is produced and accumulated through interactive innovation processes that are embedded in a national context, which in turn may help determine innovation. This paper investigates how product and process innovations in the European food and drink industry are affected by: (i) NIS structure; (ii) NIS output in terms of scientific publications and the supply of graduates; (iii) NIS cohesion and coordination; (iv) NIS scientific impact and specialisation. The main source of data on innovation by firms is the EU‐EFIGE/Bruegel‐UniCredit dataset. This is supplemented by information from the International Handbook of Universities, Eurostat and a bibliometric analysis of academic research output. Our results suggest that large research institutions in the public sector may well be detrimental to interaction between university and industry and to process innovation. The indicators used for public research assessment are not necessarily the most appropriate proxies of local knowledge spillovers.