Bank Earnings Management and Tail Risk during the Financial Crisis

We show that a pattern of earnings management in bank financial statements has little bearing on downside risk during quiet periods, but seems to have a big impact during a financial crisis. Banks demonstrating more aggressive earnings management prior to 2007 exhibit substantially higher stock market risk once the financial crisis begins as measured by the incidence of large weekly stock price “crashes” as well as by the pattern of full‐year returns. Stock price crashes also predict future deterioration in operating performance. Bank regulators may therefore interpret them as early warning signs of impending problems.     

Funds Statements and the Two-Entity Test

Funds statements represent one of the most confused and confusing areas of accounting because of the variety of concepts advocated and the paucity of definitions of terms. A recent proposal that a'two-entity test' be used to identify those items which should be included in a statement based on the total resources concept of funds is confusing and contradictory.     

Currency Risk and Country Risk in International Banking

This paper focuses on the conditions under which banks are subject to currency and country risks on their dollar-denominated loans to foreign firms and governments. We conclude that currency risk is a function of the rates of domestic and foreign inflation, deviations from purchasing power parity, and the effect of these deviations on the firm's and the nation's dollar-equivalent cash flows. Country risk is largely determined by the variability of the nation's terms of trade and the government's willingness to allow the national economy to adjust rapidly to changing economic fortunes.     

Yesterday's Bad Times Are Today's Good Old Times: Retail Price Changes Are More Frequent Today Than in the 1890s

This paper documents differences in the nominal rigidity of retail prices across two 28-month periods: 1889–91 and 1997–99. The most striking finding is that prices changed much less frequently in 1889–91. In the late-1800s when price changes did occur they were smaller on average and more narrowly distributed with fewer small or large price changes. Further, price changes were more permanent 100-plus years ago. These differences are consistent with a high occurrence of temporary price shocks and a higher cost of changing prices in 1889–91 than in 1997–99.