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In October 1981 in "An Economy Out of Balance" we examined the state of the economy following the severe shocks of 1979 and 1980. We warned that adjustments in some markets, particularly for goods and labour, might be "painfully slow", In this Viewpoint we bring that study up to date. We argue that the recent fall in the exchange rate has helped to correct some of those imbalances and that there should now be the basis for a recovery of output and a check to the rise in unemployment. 相似文献
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Prospects for the economy in the coming years depend largely on whether the private sector will expand activity and increase its employment. The immediate concern is to reverse the falls of output and employment since 1979; the longer-term concern is to generate sustained growth. In the short term. the recovery of output will depend signficantly on whether companies are prepared to rebuild stock levels. In the longer term, a sustained increase in output and employment will require an expansion of the capital stock. In each case what is needed is an increase in company expenditure. Recent experience suggests that such an increase will require a rise in the company sector's income. In this Economic Viewpoint we consider how an increase in the company sector's income and expenditure could be achieved and argue that a cut in the National Insurance Surcharge is a particularly efficient method . 相似文献
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Single period and dynamic valuation models in continuous time, under certainty and uncertainty, are developed for a property-liability insurance contract to determine the “fair” (competitive) premium and underwriting profit. The intertemporal stochastic model assumes that the claim frequency and the price index of claim settlements are functions of a set of underlying state variables which follow a multivariate Wiener process. The competitive premium is shown to be proportional to the claim frequency and the price index for claim settlements at the time the policy is issued. The factor of proportionality varies directly with the claim settlement rate and the length of coverage, and inversely with the risk-adjusted real interest rate on the dollar-valued claim rate. 相似文献
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JAMES H. BREECE KEITH R. McLAREN CHRISTOPHER W. MURPHY ALAN A. POWELL 《The Economic record》1994,70(210):292-314
A macro model incorporating rational expectations in financial markets (the Murphy Model–MM) is used to endogenize the macroeconomic environment for a comprehensive general equilibrium model (ORANI). The interface exploits the existence of variables which are endogenous to both models, calibrating on a shock to government spending. Prospective benefits include: (1) to the numerous policy oriented users of ORANI, a facility allowing the macroeconomic environment to be determined by a macrodynamic model such as MM; (2) to these users, reassurance that ORANI's short-run translates in calendar time to about two years; (3) to the clientele of a macro model, the possibility of much more detailed projections. 相似文献
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SATI P. BANDYOPADHYAY CHANGLING CHEN ALAN G. HUANG RANJINI JHA 《Contemporary Accounting Research》2010,27(2):413-460
This research reports that an increasing level of accounting conservatism over the 1973–2005 period is associated with: (1) an increase in the ability of current earnings to predict future cash flows and (2) a decrease in the ability of current earnings to predict future earnings. We also find that usefulness of earnings for explaining stock prices over book values is positively related to reliability but not to relevance. Our results hold for the constant and full samples in both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample analyses and are robust to the use of alternative measures for relevance, reliability, earnings usefulness, and conservatism. Our findings about the relations among conservatism, relevance, reliability, and usefulness suggest a trade‐off between relevance and reliability and seem to indicate that the adoption of an increasing number of conservative accounting standards has a possible adverse impact on earnings usefulness through a negative effect on reliability. 相似文献