More on Estimation Risk and Simple Rules for Optimal Portfolio Selection

For the risk-averse investor, consideration of estimation risk is important in selecting an expected-utility-maximizing portfolio. It has previously been shown that the composition of the tangency portfolio is unaffected by the recognition of estimation risk if the Full Covariance Model is used. Alternatively, if the Market Model is used, the composition of the tangency portfolio has been shown to be affected by the recognition of estimation risk. However, as is demonstrated in this paper, the effect will generally not be as substantive as previously believed and in many situations can be safely ignored.     

Market Transparency and the Accounting Regime

We model the interaction of financial market transparency and different accounting regimes. This paper provides a theoretical rationale for the recently proposed shift in accounting standards from historic cost accounting to marking to market. The paper shows that marking to market can provide investors with an early warning mechanism while historical cost gives management a “veil” under which they can potentially mask a firm's true economic performance. The model provides new explanations for several empirical findings and has some novel implications. We show that greater opacity in financial markets leads to more frequent and more severe crashes in asset prices (under a historic‐cost‐accounting regime). Moreover, our model indicates that historic cost accounting can make the financial market more rather than less volatile, which runs counter to conventional wisdom. The mechanism shown in the model also sheds light on the cause of many financial scandals in recent years.     

Improved Metrics for Workplace Dispute Resolution Procedures: Efficiency,Equity, and Voice

Many debates surround systems for resolving workplace disputes. In the United States, traditional unionized grievance procedures, emerging nonunion dispute resolution systems, and the court‐based system for resolving employment law disputes have all been criticized. What is missing from these debates are rich metrics beyond speed and satisfaction for comparing and evaluating dispute resolution systems. In this paper, we develop efficiency, equity, and voice as these standards. Unionized, nonunion, and employment law procedures are then qualitatively evaluated against these three metrics.     

Momentum and Credit Rating

This paper establishes a robust link between momentum and credit rating. Momentum profitability is large and significant among low‐grade firms, but it is nonexistent among high‐grade firms. The momentum payoffs documented in the literature are generated by low‐grade firms that account for less than 4% of the overall market capitalization of rated firms. The momentum payoff differential across credit rating groups is unexplained by firm size, firm age, analyst forecast dispersion, leverage, return volatility, and cash flow volatility.     

Outflows–induced sudden stops

The term ‘sudden stop’ refers to a scenario in which an emerging market is suddenly cut off from international capital markets. Losing access to capital markets can be devastating, often resulting in a currency crisis and recession. However, some sudden stop episodes are driven not by global investors heading for the exits, but rather by locals increasing their international claims. The source of the problem determines the policy response. To better focus on sources rather than outcomes, sudden stops should be identified as a cessation of inflows (inflows‐induced) or a sudden surge in outflows (outflows‐induced).     

DOES THE KYOTO PROTOCOL COST TOO MUCH AND CREATE UNBREAKABLE BARRIERS FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH?

We look to the literature on short-term cost models, long-term models based on endogenous growth, and long-term models that assume induced technical change, in order to demonstrate the current understanding of costs, which is the focus of the debate on abating climate change. Using these insights as well as other results—like the role of ancillary benefits and the lack of a relationship between decarbonization and economic growth—our contribution to this debate will be to help policy makers understand how economic analyses are conducted and how they should be used in the subsequent political discussions. (JEL Q52, Q54, Q58 )     

THE VALUE OF PRIVATE INFORMATION IN MONOPOLY*

We investigate a basic question about a monopoly with incomplete information: when does the seller have an incentive to allow potential buyers to acquire more private information about their tastes for the seller's product? Under plausible conditions such as log‐concave density of willingness‐to‐pay and convex marginal cost, the seller prefers that the paying customers be well informed as a group but be left in the dark regarding their individual tastes.     

A Labor Capital Asset Pricing Model

We show that labor search frictions are an important determinant of the cross‐section of equity returns. Empirically, we find that firms with low loadings on labor market tightness outperform firms with high loadings by 6% annually. We propose a partial equilibrium labor market model in which heterogeneous firms make dynamic employment decisions under labor search frictions. In the model, loadings on labor market tightness proxy for priced time‐variation in the efficiency of the aggregate matching technology. Firms with low loadings are more exposed to adverse matching efficiency shocks and require higher expected stock returns.