Institutional Trade Persistence and Long‐Term Equity Returns

Recent studies show that single‐quarter institutional herding positively predicts short‐term returns. Motivated by the theoretical herding literature, which emphasizes endogenous persistence in decisions over time, we estimate the effect of multiquarter institutional buying and selling on stock returns. Using both regression and portfolio tests, we find that persistent institutional trading negatively predicts long‐term returns: persistently sold stocks outperform persistently bought stocks at long horizons. The negative association between returns and institutional trade persistence is not subsumed by past returns or other stock characteristics, is concentrated among smaller stocks, and is stronger for stocks with higher institutional ownership.     

Accuracy of Information Maintained by US Credit Bureaus: Frequency of Errors and Effects on Consumers' Credit Scores

A representative sample of 1,000 US consumers reviewed their credit reports from the three major US credit bureaus with help from university research associates. Twenty‐six percent of study participants claimed to find at least one potentially material error and filed formal disputes with the relevant bureau(s). For 78% of the 263 consumers who filed disputes (20% of participants overall) at least one bureau altered the credit report accordingly. Thirty‐three percent of disputants (8.7% of participants) experienced a resulting increase of 10+ points in one or more of their FICO® scores; 21% of disputants (5.5% of study participants) had one or more scores cross a threshold that would typically result in more favorable terms of credit. Our findings suggest that credit‐bureau data are accurate enough to facilitate efficient lending and creditors' management of accounts, but individual consumers need to be vigilant to protect themselves against potentially costly errors in their files.     

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks under Measurement Error: A Proxy SVAR Approach

A growing literature considers the impact of uncertainty using SVAR models that include proxies for uncertainty shocks as endogenous variables. In this paper, we consider the impact of measurement error in these proxies on the estimated impulse responses. We show via a Monte Carlo experiment that measurement error can result in attenuation bias in impulse responses. In contrast, the proxy SVAR that uses the uncertainty shock proxy as an instrument does not suffer from this bias. Applying this latter method to the Bloom (2009) data set results in impulse responses to uncertainty shocks that are larger in magnitude and more persistent than those obtained from a recursive SVAR.     

The Intraday Price of Money: Evidence from the e‐MID Interbank Market

We provide empirical evidence, based on tick‐by‐tick data for the e‐MID euro area interbank market covering 2003 and 2004, that the overnight interest rate shows a clear downward pattern throughout the operating day. Thus, a positive hourly interest rate (half basis point) implicitly emerges from the intraday term structure of the overnight rate. Such a pattern was not detected in the mid‐1990s: we explain this evolution as an outcome of the recent trend toward real‐time settlement. The estimated intraday interest rate is lower than in the United States: this is due to the different cost of central bank daylight credit.     

Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy Uncertainty

We document that a trading strategy that is short the U.S. dollar and long other currencies exhibits significantly larger excess returns on days with scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements. We show that these excess returns (i) are higher for currencies with higher interest rate differentials vis‐à‐vis the United States, (ii) increase with uncertainty about monetary policy, and (iii) increase further when the Federal Reserve adopts a policy of monetary easing. We interpret these excess returns as compensation for monetary policy uncertainty within a parsimonious model of constrained financiers who intermediate global demand for currencies.     

Network Games

In contexts ranging from public goods provision to information collection, a player's well-being depends on his or her own action as well as on the actions taken by his or her neighbours. We provide a framework to analyse such strategic interactions when neighbourhood structure, modelled in terms of an underlying network of connections, affects payoffs. In our framework, individuals are partially informed about the structure of the social network. The introduction of incomplete information allows us to provide general results characterizing how the network structure, an individual's position within the network, the nature of games (strategic substitutes vs. complements and positive vs. negative externalities) and the level of information shape individual behaviour and payoffs.     

Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area

This paper studies the role of credit supply factors in business cycle fluctuations using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with financial frictions enriched with an imperfectly competitive banking sector. Banks issue collateralized loans to both households and firms, obtain funding via deposits, and accumulate capital out of retained earnings. Loan margins depend on the banks' capital‐to‐assets ratio and on the degree of interest rate stickiness. Balance‐sheet constraints establish a link between the business cycle, which affects bank profits and thus capital, and the supply and cost of loans. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques using data for the euro area. The analysis delivers the following results. First, the banking sector and, in particular, sticky rates attenuate the effects of monetary policy shocks, while financial intermediation increases the propagation of supply shocks. Second, shocks originating in the banking sector explain the largest share of the contraction of economic activity in 2008, while macroeconomic shocks played a limited role. Third, an unexpected destruction of bank capital may have substantial effects on the economy.     

Weighing in on Fast Food Consumption: The Effects of Meal and Calorie Disclosures on Consumer Fast Food Evaluations

An analysis of consumers' Weblogs and two experiments address: (1) the differences in evaluations of menu items when consumers are versus are not provided with meal calorie information, and (2) their perception of calorie levels of different types of meals. Consumers provided their calorie estimates for specific meals offered by four different fast food restaurants, and an experiment assessed effects on consumer evaluations for calorie disclosures for actual items from two of these restaurants. Results show the complex relationship between consumer perceptions regarding the restaurants, the meals and the food items that can influence consumers' calorie estimates and evaluations of meals in restaurants.