Robustly optimal monetary policy in a microfounded New Keynesian model

We consider optimal monetary stabilization policy in a New Keynesian model with explicit microfoundations, when the central bank recognizes that private-sector expectations need not be precisely model-consistent, and wishes to choose a policy that will be as good as possible in the case of any beliefs close enough to model-consistency. We show how to characterize robustly optimal policy without restricting consideration a priori to a particular parametric family of candidate policy rules. We show that robustly optimal policy can be implemented through commitment to a target criterion involving only the paths of inflation and a suitably defined output gap, but that a concern for robustness requires greater resistance to surprise increases in inflation than would be considered optimal if one could count on the private sector to have “rational expectations.”     

Practitioners' Corner

The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below. In our discussion in the last issue of Journal of FinancialEconometrics (JFEC) of the nonparametric methods developed byBarndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2006) to detect jumps in thelocal behavior of the continuous time path of a price process,we observed these tests were not designed to detect major pricediscontinuity events such as the 1987 crash, since the testingmethodology precludes jumps in adjacent time intervals. Indeed,a major event such as Black Monday is characterized by a sequenceof jumps in consecutive time intervals throughout the day. Inthe interest of thematic continuity, let’s pursue thematter of jumps further. The first article in the current issue by Hossein Asgharianand Chistoffer Bengtsson addresses directly the detection ofbig events in stock prices. More particularly, the authors analyzethe spillover of jumps across international stock markets. Tomeasure jumps, the authors formulate a parametric model in . . . [Full Text of this Article]     

Von der Inflationsphobie bis zur „schwarzen Null“

The article examines some of the key statements of the supply-side economic theory that rejects debt-financed government investment programs for stabilizing high employment. It turns out that supply-side objections are not empirically proven. Subsequently, the author attempts to explain why nevertheless the supply-side paradigm stubbornly remains the prevailing theory in economics. It shows that the mechanisms of deliberative democracy in the economic decision-making in Germany do not work.     

Evidence from Patents and Patent Citations on the Impact of NASA and Other Federal Labs on Commercial Innovation

Federal lab commercialization is explored: (1) by analyzing US government patents and (2) in a qualitative analysis of one NASA lab's patents. Tests apply to three distinct sets of patents, 1963–94: NASA, all other US government, and a random sample of all US inventors' patents. The federal patenting rate plummeted in the 1970s. Consistent with increasing commercialization, both NASA's and other federal agencies' rates recovered in the 1980s. The case study finds citations to be a valid but noisy measure of technology spillovers. Excluding 'spurious' cites, two-thirds of cites to patents of NASA-Lewis' Electro-Physics Branch were evaluated as involving spillovers.     

Evaluation of American option prices in a path integral framework using Fourier–Hermite series expansions

In this paper we review the path integral technique which has wide applications in statistical physics and relate it to the backward recursion technique which is widely used for the evaluation of derivative securities. We formulate the pricing of equity options, both European and American, using the path integral framework. Discretising in the time variable and using expansions in Fourier–Hermite series for the continuous representation of the underlying asset price, we show how these options can be evaluated in the path integral framework. For American options, the solution technique facilitates the accurate determination of the early exercise boundary as part of the solution. Additionally, the continuous representation of the state variable allows the relatively accurate and efficient evaluation of the option prices and the delta hedge ratio.     

Interpreting the results of studies using latent variable models to assess data quality: an empirical example using confirmatory factor analysis

Latent variable models (LVMs) offer one route to examine the quality of data collected in surveys. The possibility exists that individuals equivalent in their true level of a construct or variable being measured are unlikely to have equivalent observed responses as a function of an extraneous variable, e.g., group membership. This potential is labeled here as differential item functioning (DIF). Survey methods generally considers measurement bias to be estimators that do no not accurately reflect true values. DIF may be thought of as differential measurement bias, i.e., measurement bias conditional on group membership. As a function of group membership, the degree, amount, or type of measurement bias changes. DIF has the potential to negatively affect the quality of data. LVMs, e.g., confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), offer one tool to assess DIF. However, few published examples exist in the survey research field and training in the interpretation of these models is lacking. The purpose of the current paper is to describe CFA sufficiently for interpretive purposes and demonstrate an empirical application of CFA to assess survey data quality to provide further interpretive guidance. References are provided for analysts wishing to conduct analyses of this type.     

Talent or Not? Employee Reactions to Talent Identification

In this article, we examine the effect of talent identification on employee attitudes. Building on social exchange theory, we analyze the association between employees' perceptions about whether or not they have been formally identified as “talent” and the following attitudinal outcomes: commitment to increasing performance demands, building skills, and supporting strategic priorities; identification with the unit and the multinational enterprise; and turnover intentions. Our analyses of 769 managers and professionals in nine Nordic multinational corporations reveal a number of differences between employees who perceive that they have been identified as “talent” and those who either perceive that they have not been identified or do not know whether they have been identified. We found only limited differences between the two latter categories.