A Test of Technical Analysis: Matching Time Displaced Generalized Patterns

We use a least squares metric to match the return pattern of a target stock with that of an out‐of‐sample‐twin. The twin with the smallest metric is found by a comprehensive period‐by‐period search of stocks in the Center for Research in Security Prices data set extending back to 1926. If technical analysis has value, targets of twins producing the highest returns in the twin postperiod should also have the highest performance in the target postperiod. Using a randomly selected sample of 66,000 return patterns, we find higher means for targets corresponding to the highest returning twin quintile. We also use regressions to risk adjust target returns and find that twin returns in the postmatch period significantly predict risk‐adjusted target returns.     

Opportunist dealing in the UK pig meat supply chain: Trader mentalities and alternatives

The scandal surrounding the presence of horsemeat in UK supermarket meat products has focused public attention on the problems of complex, fragmented food supply chains. Through a study of the UK's pig meat supply chain, this paper proposes a new framing of the problem in terms of opportunistic dealing adopted by the supermarkets in vertically disintegrated supply chains, where all actors attempt to pass the risks and costs onto somebody else. This outcome is the result of cultural practices and competences in buyer-led supermarket organizations where strong supermarket chains have the power to capture processor and producer margins. One consequence is that mass-market meat production and processing is close to unviable, as evidenced here by the analysis of the VION Food Group. However, there are mainstream alternatives to the retail-led dysfunctional supply chain. This paper presents an alternative integrated supply chain model using the case of Morrisons, the UK's fourth largest supermarket chain. If fragmented supply chains are not inevitable, the important issue explored in the conclusion is how the inadequacies of government policy, which understands the problem of the sector but is stuck with a competition-based mindset, obstruct the creation of a more sustainable supply chain.     

The maximum entropy mortality model: forecasting mortality using statistical moments

ABSTRACT

The age-at-death distribution is a representation of the mortality experience in a population. Although it proves to be highly informative, it is often neglected when it comes to the practice of past or future mortality assessment. We propose an innovative method to mortality modeling and forecasting by making use of the location and shape measures of a density function, i.e. statistical moments. Time series methods for extrapolating a limited number of moments are used and then the reconstruction of the future age-at-death distribution is performed. The predictive power of the method seems to be net superior when compared to the results obtained using classical approaches to extrapolating age-specific-death rates, and the accuracy of the point forecast (MASE) is improved on average by 33% respective to the state-of-the-art, the Lee–Carter model. The method is tested using data from the Human Mortality Database and implemented in a publicly available R package.     

Labour productivity and rice production in Bangladesh: a stochastic frontier approach

During the NCAA basketball tournaments from 2002 to 2005, men's games produced 27% more upsets than women's games. To test whether these unpredictable results were due to gender differences, we conduct logit analysis to explain upsets by gender and other potentially significant variables, including differences in competing teams’: (i) RPI scores, (ii) percentage of freshmen, (iii) percentage of seniors, (iv) top scorer's total points and, (v) top three scorers’ total points. These analyses suggest that gender plays a significant role in explaining predictability.     

Quantifying the positive effects of sponsor level,length, prominence and relatedness on recall and residual recall rates over time

This study is the first multi-year examination of the relative influence of the four main variables said to influence sponsorship recall. Sponsor recall data were collected from season ticket holders (STHs) of 10 professional sports teams, over periods ranging from 3 to 5 years per team. Across those teams and over that time, 309 sponsor–team relationships were examined, and sponsor recall data from over 117,000 individual STHs were collected. Sponsorship length and level were shown to have the strongest impact on recall, followed by relatedness and prominence. These variables affected both the recall of current sponsors and the decay rates of residual recall following the end of a sponsorship. The average rates of sponsor recall growth and decline have been derived from these data, giving managers a tool by which to benchmark sport sponsorship recall performance.     

Human resource involvement in developing intellectual capital

This study examined the extent of a strategic approach to human resource (HR) management in small and medium professional service firms, and if it is used to develop intellectual capital (IC). Data were collected from 165 Australian professional service firms. Path analysis showed that HR involvement and the adoption of a collective set of strategic HR practices contributed positively to IC levels (particularly human, social and organizational capital). IC acts as a mediator between HR practices and firm performance. HR practices alone did not increase the performance of the firms studied. The findings are unique in the context of studies on small- and medium-sized professional service firms in that a holistic approach to assessing both HR practices and all IC components was taken rather than examining the individual construct relationships. In the context studied, HR influence is critical to increasing IC.     

Using choice experiments to assess smallholder farmers' preferences for pig breeding traits in different production systems in North-West Vietnam

Livestock form key components of the livelihood strategies of many of the world's poorest people. However, despite the potential to alleviate poverty and improve food security through livestock development interventions, the lack of smallholders' participation in the planning and design of breeding programs has often been a major cause of the failure of such programs. Particularly in developing countries where livestock production is still mostly subsistence-oriented and livestock fulfil manifold functions a considerable number of livestock breeding programs have failed. The development of adequate tools to characterise these functions, bearing in mind that these are expressed only rarely in properly functioning markets, is therefore important.This paper seeks to advance the application of such methodologies to the smallholder pig sector in Vietnam. A choice experiment was applied across 140 households involved in pig breeding in order to assess farmers' preferences and the trade-offs for a list of adaptive and productive traits. These included growth, reproduction, disease resistance, feed requirements and appearance.The findings indicate that smallholders highly value both adaptive and performance traits, particularly in resource-driven (i.e. subsistence) production systems. Performance traits were more highly valued in the demand-driven (i.e. market-oriented) systems. These findings have implications for breeding program breed choice and breeding objectives.     

Are there ENSO signals in the macroeconomy?

Whether ENSO has affected U.S. macroeconomic performance has been a matter of dispute. To address the issue we explore whether there has been any co-cyclicality of ENSO fluctuations and the rates of inflation and economic growth over the 1894-1999 timespan and, failing this, whether aperiodic ENSO shocks have had any impact on these variables. Neither co-cyclicality nor aperiodic shocks are discernible. While ENSO may briefly influence the performance of particular sectors of the economy in particular regions, as documented by the previous literature, such locally-important effects vanish into the noise surrounding macroeconomic trends in an economy as large and complex as that of the U.S.     

Addressing causality in the effect of capital account liberalization on growth

Evidence supporting the positive effects of capital account liberalization on growth is mixed at best. Even after conditioning on the quality of domestic financial institutions, a significant number of studies still find no effect. One possible explanation is reverse causation. If low growth countries liberalize in order to spur growth, the observed correlation between growth and liberalization will underestimate the impact of capital account openness. To eliminate this bias, I instrument capital account liberalization with the average level of openness of other countries to capture the “fad” element in financial liberalization. IV estimates indicate a significant positive effect of liberalization on growth, confirming the predictions of economic theory.