Using Loan Rates to Measure and Regulate Bank Risk: Findings and an Immodest Proposal

There is strong evidence that the interest rates charged by banks on the flow of newly extended Commercial & Industrial (C&I) loans predict future loan performance and CAMEL rating downgrades by bank supervisors. While internal risk ratings have little explanatory power for future loan performance, they do help predict future CAMEL downgrades. These findings suggest that supervisors might consider using interest rates in the off-site surveillance of banks. At the same time, we propose that reformers consider basing capital requirements and deposit insurance premia on loan interest rates instead of (or in addition to) internal risk ratings and models.     

Clustering in the futures market: Evidence from S&P 500 futures contracts

We document trade price clustering in the futures markets. We find clustering at prices of x.00 and x.50 for S&P 500 futures contracts. While trade price clustering is evident throughout time to maturity of these contracts, there is a dramatic change when the S&P 500 futures contract is designated a front‐month contract (decrease in clustering) and a back‐month contract (increase in clustering). We find that trade price clustering is a positive function of volatility and a negative function of volume or open interest. In addition, we find a high degree of clustering in the daily opening and closing prices, but a lower degree of clustering in the settlement prices. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:413–428, 2004     

Input–Output Models with Stochastic Matrices and Time Lags

In this paper, the random balanced growth factor to forward-lag-type and mixed-lag-type input–output (IO) models is considered. The instability of IO and capital matrices is taken into account by stochastic methods. Exact and approximate characteris-tics of stochastic solutions are given.     

HOW LONG DO CONGRESSMEN STAY IN OFFICE?*

This paper develops a methodology for calculating the expected completed lengths of U.S. congressmen's stays in office. In addition, it demonstrates how this methodology can be used to forecast the seniority structure of future Congresses. One of the major empirical findings of this paper is that it demonstrates the deficiencies of using “mean term” to make inferences about the expected length of congressmen's stays.