The Persistence of Profits in the Long Run: A New Approach

We present a trend‐based alternative to the standard first‐order autoregression model in persistence of profits studies. This is motivated by reservations over the interpretation of the standard model, and rests on a different concept of dynamic competition. A nine‐category taxonomy of long‐run persistence stereotypes is developed. Structural time series estimates are presented for a sample of UK companies. We find the null of long run competitive equilibrium not rejected in nearly a third of cases, but non‐eroding persistence to be present in around 60%.     

Currency Unions in Africa: Is the Trade Effect Substantial Enough to Justify their Formation?

Using estimates that currency unions double trade, we quantify the welfare effects of forming currency unions for the African regional economic communities and for the African Union as a whole. The potential increase in trade is shown to be small, and much less than that resulting from the adoption of the euro. Allowing for increased African trade does not overturn the negative assessment of African currency unions, due to asymmetries in countries’ terms‐of‐trade shocks and their degree of fiscal discipline.     

Increasing Corporate Social Responsibility Through an Employee-centered Approach

As the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) literature has developed, it appears that a dominant paradigm has emerged. Both scholars who study CSR and those who write about its organizational application have largely converged on CSR as an organizational strategy issue. Viewing CSR as a matter of top-level strategy unwittingly links it to a particular conceptualization of organizational change—a top-down perspective. We suggest that the dominance of this traditional view of organizational change is limiting the study of CSR. Thus, we seek to increase awareness of an alternative model, one that complements the strategic view. Specifically, we describe a model of CSR organizational change that suggests two things. First we assert that significant change can be initiated at lower organizational levels as well as from the top. And second, we suggest that the change can be accomplished in small steps and involve only a portion of the organization, as opposed to an overarching organizational strategy. We present our employee-centered approach to CSR change as an addition to the traditional top-down view.     

Estimating elasticities with frontier and other regressions in evaluating two advertising strategies for US Army recruiting

To help resolve a long-standing debate in the US Government on advertising strategies for military recruitment, this study applies ordinary least squares (OLS), which here includes (1) stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and (2) frontierized least squares (FLS), to evaluate two distinct advertising strategies: Service Specific vs. Joint. Thus, in contrast to the customary use of a single central tendency method, such as OLS, on different models, we here use multiple methods on a single model to cross check and validate results. In addition to serving as cross checks, the methods can be used to identify classic problems, including biases in the data and shortcomings in one or more of the methodologies employed. To avoid dealing with problems on identifying motives underlying various patterns in advertising expenditure, data are drawn from a statistically designed experiment where the expenditures were controlled as part of the experiment to resolve the issue of a choice between the two advertising strategies of interest. In contrast to earlier studies, the current paper finds that all methods used lead to the same conclusion: Service Specific is more efficient than Joint, at least for the US Army—which is, by far, the largest military advertiser. Finally, the paper introduces a new method for reallocating advertising budgets between the Uniformed Services which (a) is simpler than the customary use of cross partial derivatives, (b) avoids the need for the ceteris paribus assumptions for each such allocation, as in customary reallocation methods and (c) simplifies matters so that, for instance, it is not necessary to introduce an entirely new organization to administer the desired coordinating activities.     

Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: Longer-term,non-linear orientation on PPP

How is it possible that exchange rates move in the long run towards fundamentals, while professionals form consistently irrational exchange rate expectations? We look at this puzzle from a different perspective by analyzing investor sentiment in the US-dollar market. First, long-horizon regressions show that investor sentiment is connected with exchange rate returns at longer horizons, i.e. more than two years. Second, sentiment is cointegrated with fundamentals, whereas third, this relation becomes stronger, the larger exchange rate's misalignment from long-run PPP. In sum, investor sentiment's behavior in the US-dollar market closely matches with established facts of empirical exchange rate research.     

Interests Versus Ideology in the Ratification of the 16th and 17th Amendments

The ideology of Progressivism that peaked in the early years of the 20th century brought with it the 16th amendment, which allowed the federal government to tax incomes, and the 17th amendment, which mandated direct elections of Senators. Both were ratified in 1913. The 16th amendment provided the financing for government to expand its scope, and the 17th amendment created more democratic accountability, which both were goals of the Progressive movement. An examination of House and Senate voting on these amendments suggests that those opposed to the amendments voted against them based on interests rather than ideology.     

Multimarket contact and sales growth: evidence from insurance

Research on pricing, profits, and firm survival has shown that multimarket contact causes mutual forbearance against competition, but has not considered the consequences of imperfect observability of competitive moves. Here, predictions are developed to explain how mutual forbearance occurs—but sometimes fails—in markets with imperfect observability. Mutual forbearance means that firms do not seek to take market share from each other through price cuts or nonprice competition, and thus that sales grow at uniform rates. Firms defect from mutual forbearance, and hence have higher sales growth, if the potential rewards are high and the likelihood of being discovered is low. This theory is tested on a panel of firms operating in the Norwegian general insurance industry. The evidence suggests that sales growth is most rapid in firms that do not meet many multimarket competitors in a given market and firms that are economically troubled. Growing or highly concentrated markets have higher heterogeneity of growth rates. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.