Risk-Adjusted Economic Value Analysis

Abstract

The ability of commonly used profitability measures to reflect risk exposure appropriately is evaluated and found lacking. As an alternative, a modern portfolio theory approach, based on utility theory, is recommended. Generalized formulas for calculating risk-adjusted economic values by deriving risk adjustments from certainty equivalents are developed by using the Markowitz expected utility maxim. Practical applications are described. Where appropriate, simplifying assumptions are shown to result in closed-form solutions, thereby reducing the need for extensive, stochastic cashflow simulations. The resulting formulas can be used to measure financial performance on a risk-adjusted basis consistently across different lines of business or to evaluate risk exposures in strategic alternatives.     

Geographies of wealth: real estate and personal property ownership in England and Wales, 1870–1902

This article explores the composition and geographies of individual wealth holding in England and Wales in the late nineteenth century. It draws on various forms of death duty records to determine the individual ownership of wealth including both personal property and real estate. By combining information on these different kinds of property, it is possible to explore how different strata of wealth holders accumulated specific forms of wealth at the time of their death. The article then examines how the composition of that wealth varied according to the wealth holder's location in the urban hierarchy and distance from London. It points out important geographical differences in both the scale and nature of wealth holding and raises questions about the implications of these findings.     

Contract culture and target fetishism: The distortive effects of output measures in local regeneration programmes

Performance management in TECs¹ and urban initiatives has developed in the 1990s into a “contract culture” characterised by heavy reliance on quantitative indicators as the basis for funding arrangements. These indicators may have perverse effects. Firstly, they may distort the design of local policy at the level of strategic planning and SRB (Single Regeneration Budget) bid-writing. Secondly, their use in contracts between TECs, City Challenge companies, SRB partnerships and their delivery agencies may distort policy implementation. An instructive parallel may be drawn between this “indicator distortion” and the distortions induced by planning targets in the former Soviet Union.     

How U.S. Farm Programs and Crop Revenue Insurance Affect Returns to Farm Land

A simulation model incorporating price and yield variability is used to examine the impact of government farm program and crop revenue coverage (CRC) insurance payments on the probability distribution of returns to land. Results indicate that Marketing Loan Program payments have the greatest impact on both the mean and standard deviation of returns. Agricultural Market Transition Act payments shift the distribution of returns without changing the variability, creating a reduction in relative risk. Market loss assistance payments increase the mean, reduce variability, and increase skewness. When combined, farm programs substantially increase the value that risk-averse producers place on the residual returns to land and substantially reduce the certainty equivalent value of CRC.     

Bank-led restructuring in Poland: the conciliation process in action1

Poland's 1993 Enterprise and Bank Restructuring Programme (EBRP) tried to force state-owned commercial banks to build institutional capacity and resolve their problem loans. The outcome of its innovative bank-led workout (‘conciliation’) process, documented in this study of 62 firms, is decidedly mixed. The EBRP forced banks to confront their problems, helped them to build instituional capacity in their workout units, and furthered the difficult task of weeding out and closing clearly unviable firms. Yet it had limited power to promote needed restructuring or privatization in firms. The conciliation agreements were relatively unsophisticated and include few tangible requirements for operational or management change. The first two years of implementation saw a slowdown (over earlier years) in the rate of layoffs, a decline in average operating profitablility, and very little real privatization. The main impact of conciliation appears to have been to reduce debt service and thereby give firms ‘breathing room’.