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31.
The nexus between trade and economic growth in Italy has been widely debated by historiography. However, there are no long run analyses on this topic that cover the whole span from Unification to present days. This paper contributes to fill this gap by investigating the relationship between real exports, imports and GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that these variables comove in the long run but the direction of causality varies across time. In the period prior to the First World War import growth led GDP growth that in turn led export growth. Conversely, in the post-Second World War period we have a strong bidirectionality between imports and exports consequent on the increase in intra-industry trade. We also find a weak support for export-led growth and growth-led imports. This suggests that exports were not the only or the main driver of economic growth. There was probably a multiplicity of factors at work, among which high rates of capital formation and the expansion of internal demand probably stood out. 相似文献
32.
To assess significant changes of health status in people receiving health care, distribution-based and anchor-based methods have been proposed. However, there is no real consensus on what method is the best for evaluating clinically meaningful change. To maximize the internal and external validity of outcome assessment, we propose combining two approaches as recommended by recent practical guidelines on this field. Specifically, we suggest applying longitudinal hierarchical linear models on subgroups of patients showing reliable change and reliable and clinically significant change. This combined approach improved the model’s ability (1) to quantify the magnitude of changes to be reliable and clinically meaningful and (2) to select significant predictors of changes. An empirical application on a prevalence sample of Italian outpatients attending four community mental health services was done. A cross-sectional model and three longitudinal models were applied on the entire study sample and reliable and clinically meaningful change subsamples to investigate the magnitude of change and the predictive effect on outcomes of clinical, socio-demographic and process variables on different patients’ subgroups. Differences were found suggesting that both the statistical method and the sample used to calculate individual changes affect the estimates. The main conclusion is that ignoring the longitudinal data structure or including patients with unreliable change at the follow-up might result in misleading inferences that can alter the real magnitude of changes and the contributions of predictors. The approach proposed provides robust feedback to clinicians on clinically significant change and can be recommended in outcome studies and research. 相似文献
33.
Alberto Botta 《Metroeconomica》2010,61(3):510-539
In this paper we present a structuralist two‐sector model on economic development, structural change and natural resource booms. We describe a multiple equilibria scenario, in which manufacturing development is the main source of economic progress. Natural resource booms, by modifying the productive structure of the economy, may set destabilizing forces. De‐industrialization processes may take place, confining developing countries in poverty traps. Public intervention in the economic sphere, both through short‐run macro policies and through long‐run development strategies, may help to free the economy from poverty traps and to foster the development process. 相似文献
34.
Inmaculada Martín-Tapia J. Alberto Aragón-Correa Antonio Rueda-Manzanares 《Journal of World Business》2010,45(3):266-275
Growing corporate internationalization and the emergence of environmental concerns are two of the main trends in the business world. This paper analyzes whether strategies for environmental protection can help small and medium enterprises (SMEs) as they internationalize their activities through exports. Personal interviews were conducted with 123 general managers of exporting SMEs from the Spanish food industry. The results show a relationship between advanced environmental strategies and export intensity for the sampled firms. However, the size of firm plays a role in this relationship, as the relationship between advanced environmental strategies and exports is stronger with an increase in the size of the SMEs. Authors discuss implications of these results for practitioners and future research. 相似文献
35.
The model presented here is an estimated medium-scale New Multi-Country Model (NMCM) which covers the five largest euro area countries and is used for forecasting and scenario analysis at the European Central Bank. The model has a tight theoretical structure which allows for non-unitary elasticity of substitution, non-constant augmenting technical progress and heterogeneous sectors with differentiated price and income elasticities of demand across sectors. Furthermore, it has the explicit inclusion of expectations on the basis of three optimising private sector decision making units: i.e. firms, trade unions and households, where output is in the short run demand-determined and monopolistically competing firms set prices and factor demands. Labour is indivisible and monopoly-unions set wages and households make consumption/saving decisions.We assume that agents optimise under limited information where each agent knows only the parameters related to his/her optimisation problem. Therefore we estimate with GMM, which implicitly assumes limited information boundedly rational expectations. In this paper we provide some simulation results under the assumption of model-consistent rational expectations, we show that there is some heterogeneity across countries and that the reactions of the economies to shocks depend strongly on whether the shocks are pre-announced, announced and credible or unannounced and uncredible. 相似文献
36.
37.
Alberto Botta 《Structural Change and Economic Dynamics》2009,20(1):61-73
This paper presents a structuralist North–South model on structural change, industrialization and economic convergence. In a balance-of-payments-constrained macro-setting, we assume a cumulative process between industrialization and growth. Differently from the traditional post-Keynesian models, we endogenize the productive structure of developing countries. We enquire how industrialization affects uneven development and convergence processes. Multiple growth paths and a long-run path-dependent equilibrium emerge. Industrialization proves to be a necessary but not sufficient condition for catching-up. Good management by the domestic institutions of domestic industrialization is a complementary requirement. 相似文献
38.
This paper analyses the co-existence of two markets for the same shares, a quote-driven market and an order-driven market, as observed for example for the trading of continental shares on the London SEAQ International. The focus is on the trade-off between the uncertain execution price faced by investors on an auction market and the implicit transaction cost represented by the spread in a dealer market. We obtain that those investors who desire to make large trades will prefer to trade with the dealer, while trades of smaller size will be carried out on the auction market. Moreover, we explicitly investigate the interrelations between the two markets showing that the pricing policy followed by a dealer depends on the conditions prevailing on the auction market.
(J.E.L: G10, D40) 相似文献
(J.E.L: G10, D40) 相似文献
39.
40.