Productivity growth and convergence in crop, ruminant, and nonruminant production: measurement and forecasts

Projections of future productivity growth rates in agriculture are an essential input for a great variety of tasks, ranging from development of an outlook for global commodity markets to the analysis of interactions between land use, deforestation, and ecological diversity. Yet solid projections for these variables have proven elusive—particularly on a global basis. This is due, in no small part, to the difficulty of measuring historical total factor productivity growth. Consequently, most productivity projections are based on partial factor productivity measures that can be quite misleading. The purpose of this work is to provide worldwide forecasts of agricultural productivity growth till the year 2040 based on the latest time series evidence on total factor productivity growth for crops, ruminants, and nonruminant livestock. The results suggest that most regions in the sample are likely to experience larger productivity gains in livestock than in crops. Within livestock, the nonruminant sector is expected to continue to be more dynamic than the ruminant sector. Given the rapid rates of productivity growth observed recently, nonruminant and crop productivity in developing countries may be converging to the productivity levels of developed countries. For ruminants, the results show that productivity levels in developing countries are likely to be diverging from those in developed countries.     

Welfare and sectoral productivity shifts in a small open economy with imported agricultural inputs: The case of Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper studies the impact of sectoral productivity growth on welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using the analytical framework of a DSGE model, the main finding is that, for the estimated values of structural parameters, the allocation of scarce resources to the tradable agricultural sector for boosting productivity leads to a greater increase in overall welfare than would be the case if they were allocated to the non-traded goods sector.

     

Sustainable finance: The role of savings and credit cooperatives in Ecuador

The current world situation leads us to consider that sustainable development needs to be a global priority to ensure the future of the planet and improve the quality of life. There is a need for sustainable finance to support this. Savings and credit cooperatives could help to achieve this impact as they serve the microfinance and microlending market. They facilitate the financial inclusion of the most vulnerable people, most of whom live in rural areas and are members of organizations, such as agricultural cooperatives and associations. Previous studies have focused exclusively on overall profitability, so this paper contributes to extending the literature by analyzing the whole population of savings and credit cooperatives in Ecuador (510 institutions), focusing on their profitability in two ways: the overall profitability necessary for the viability of the business and, in addition, the microcredit portfolio profitability, as a specific measure of its contribution to sustainability and social value creation. Another novelty is that the analysis has been carried out using several machine learning techniques for the wider generalization of the results. These show that size is the most relevant variable for predicting the ROE and that the microcredit portfolio profitability is conditioned by the credit variables.