Productivity growth and convergence in crop, ruminant, and nonruminant production: measurement and forecasts

Projections of future productivity growth rates in agriculture are an essential input for a great variety of tasks, ranging from development of an outlook for global commodity markets to the analysis of interactions between land use, deforestation, and ecological diversity. Yet solid projections for these variables have proven elusive—particularly on a global basis. This is due, in no small part, to the difficulty of measuring historical total factor productivity growth. Consequently, most productivity projections are based on partial factor productivity measures that can be quite misleading. The purpose of this work is to provide worldwide forecasts of agricultural productivity growth till the year 2040 based on the latest time series evidence on total factor productivity growth for crops, ruminants, and nonruminant livestock. The results suggest that most regions in the sample are likely to experience larger productivity gains in livestock than in crops. Within livestock, the nonruminant sector is expected to continue to be more dynamic than the ruminant sector. Given the rapid rates of productivity growth observed recently, nonruminant and crop productivity in developing countries may be converging to the productivity levels of developed countries. For ruminants, the results show that productivity levels in developing countries are likely to be diverging from those in developed countries.     

External information acquisition for decision making in small businesses

Markets are broadening and global trends have created a new competitive landscape for companies, moving along the information era. The proper acquisition and information management of external information may lead companies to acquire better knowledge, productivity, and, in general, better performance. This organizational behavior of information acquisition, in SMEs, has its own characteristics that must be analyzed to foster the designing and development of information technologies and organizational strategies.     

Exports, investment and firm-level sales volatility

This paper presents a dynamic model of risk-averse producers??decision to invest in physical capital and to export. The model features irreversible investment, no capital markets and fixed and sunk costs to export. Several features of the distribution of investment rates and export participation patterns observed in firm-level data are closely matched in a calibration exercise. Counterfactual experiments show that large adjustments in total sales associated with entry into foreign markets increase the volatility of total sales for exporting firms.     

On the invariance of the set of Core matchings with respect to preference profiles

We consider the general many-to-one matching model with ordinal preferences and give a procedure to partition the set of preference profiles into subsets with the property that all preference profiles in the same subset have the same Core. We also show how to identify a profile of (incomplete) binary relations containing the minimal information needed to generate as strict extensions all the (complete) preference profiles with the same Core. This is important for applications since it reduces the amount of information that agents have to reveal about their preference relations to centralized Core matching mechanisms; moreover, this reduction is maximal.     

Producing energy in a stochastic environment: Switching from non-renewable to renewable resources

In this paper, we study the determinants of switching from non-renewable natural resource inputs to renewable resource inputs in energy production. We assume that the stocks of both natural resources are stochastic, and that the adoption of renewable resources is costly and irreversible. Our formulation gives raise to an optimal stopping/switching problem that cannot be solved analytically, then we turn to numerical simulations. Our results suggest that the optimal switching time depends not only on the uncertainty parameters, but also on energy demand, costs, and the relative productivity of the resources.     

Market and Welfare Effects of Mandatory Country‐of‐Origin Labeling in the U.S. Specialty Crops Sector: An Application to Fresh Market Apples

This study provides a new framework of analysis of the market and welfare effects of mandatory country‐of‐origin labeling (MCOOL) for fruits and vegetables that accounts for heterogeneous consumer preferences, differences in producer agronomic characteristics, and retailer market power. The market and welfare effects of MCOOL are shown to be case‐specific and dependent on the labeling costs at the farm and retail levels, the strength of consumer preference for domestic products, the market power of retailers, the marketing margin along the supply chain, and the relative costs of imported and domestic products. Simulation results for the U.S. market of fresh apples indicate that domestic producers are the most likely beneficiaries of MCOOL, followed by domestic consumers. Being unable to exercise market power on consumers or suppliers of fresh apples, retailers will lose if the implementation of MCOOL entails fixed costs. Imports of fresh apples decline after MCOOL introduction.     

Investment shocks and business cycles

The origins of business cycles are still controversial among macroeconomists. This paper contributes to this debate by studying the driving forces of fluctuations in an estimated new neoclassical synthesis model of the U.S. economy. In this model, most of the variability of output and hours at business cycle frequencies is due to shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment. Imperfect competition and, to a lesser extent, technological frictions are the key to their transmission. Although labor supply shocks explain a large fraction of the fluctuations in hours at very low frequencies, they are irrelevant over the business cycle. This finding is important because the microfoundations of these disturbances are widely regarded as unappealing.     

When can you immunize a bond portfolio?

This paper presents a condition equivalent to the existence of a Riskless Shadow Asset that guarantees a minimum return when the asset prices are convex functions of interest rates or other state variables. We apply this lemma to immunize default-free and option-free coupon bonds and reach three main conclusions. First, we give a solution to an old puzzle: why do simple duration matching portfolios work well in empirical studies of immunization even though they are derived in a model inconsistent with equilibrium and shifts on the term structure of interest rates are not parallel, as assumed? Second, we establish a clear distinction between the concepts of immunized and maxmin portfolios. Third, we develop a framework that includes the main results of this literature as special cases. Next, we present a new strategy of immunization that consists in matching duration and minimizing a new linear dispersion measure of immunization risk.