Toward a conceptual framework of the harmonization of bank financial reporting standards in transition economies: The case of Mexico

In recent years banks in emerging and transition economies throughout the world have been compelled to change lending and financial reporting practices in response to the economic transition of their countries. Correspondingly, on the basis of the theory of soft budget constraints (SBC), economists have studied the relationship between economic development, banks' lending practices, and banks' penchant to overstate loans. However, very little research has been performed by accounting researchers regarding the nature of bank loan overstatement during times of financial crisis in emerging markets. Accordingly, this paper uses the theory of soft budget constraints to develop a four stage conceptual framework of the harmonization of bank financial reporting standards during times of economic transition. Emphasis is placed on using the theory of soft budget constraints to characterize the harmonization of standards and practices with respect to bank loan overstatement. The framework is applied to the harmonization of Mexican bank financial reporting during the country's economic transition of the late 1990s. The Mexican harmonization process during this period generally followed the framework.     

An Active Asset Management Investment Process for Drawdown-Averse Investors

The contribution of this article is to present an investment process that allows the asset manager to limit risk exposure to macro-factors – including expectations on correlation dynamics – whilst allowing for selective exposure to risk factors using factor-portfolios that emulate the risk and return profile of market micro-factors. The design of the process provides the ability to explicitely limit risk exposures to macro-factors based on forward-looking narratives allowing the investor to reflect – in the resulting active allocation – expectations of financial or systemic crises by, say, restricting the overall exposure to the credit macro-factor that includes the risk factor exposures (micro-level) arising, for example, from corporate and supranational spreads whilst simultaneously increasing the exposure to flight-to-safety macro-factors under a local or global crisis. This process is better suited to drawdown-averse investors that are willing to forgo some upside in order to effectively limit significant portfolio losses from crises, systemic or otherwise. In order to improve the optimization over the rugged solution space resulting from superimposing macro-factors' risk envelopes on the factor-portfolios' tracking error allocation, a genetic-algorithm-based optimization is proposed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using Artificial Neural Networks to forecast Exchange Rate,including VAR‐VECM residual analysis and prediction linear combination

The Euro US Dollar rate is one of the most important exchange rates in the world, making the analysis of its behavior fundamental for the global economy and for different decision‐makers at both the public and private level. Furthermore, given the market efficiency of the EUR/USD exchange rate, being able to predict the rate's future short‐term variation represents a great challenge. This study proposes a new framework to improve the forecasting accuracy of EUR/USD exchange rate returns through the use of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) together with a Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model, Vector Error Corrective model (VECM), and post‐processing. The motivation lies in the integration of different approaches, which should improve the ability to forecast regarding each separate model. This is especially true given that Artificial Neural Networks are capable of capturing the short and long‐term non‐linear components of a time series, which VECM and VAR models are unable to do. Post‐processing seeks to combine the best forecasts to make one that is better than its components. Model predictive capacity is compared according to the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as a loss function and its significance is analyzed using the Model Confidence Set. The results obtained show that the proposed framework outperforms the benchmark models, decreasing the RMSE of the best econometric model by 32.5% and by 19.3% the best hybrid. Thus, it is determined that forecast post‐processing increases forecasting accuracy.     

A PANIC analysis on regional and sectoral inflation: the Spanish case

This article studies the stochastic properties of several inflation rates for the Spanish economy using the consumer price index (CPI) for the 17 regions and 12 groups of goods and services, and the producer price index (PPI) for 26 industrial sectors. To this end, we employ the panel analysis of nonstationarity in idiosyncratic and common components (PANIC) approach proposed by Bai and Ng (2004, 2010). This methodology enables us to decompose the observed inflation rate series into a common and an idiosyncratic component, thus allowing us to identify the exact source of nonstationarity. Our analysis provides strong evidence of the presence of a common stochastic trend driving the observed series forming the panel of CPI-based inflation rates for the regions. This, coupled with the presence of a jointly stationary idiosyncratic component, implies the existence of pairwise cointegration across the regional CPI-based inflation rates, which show a clear pattern of convergence over time. This gives an indication of increased geographical homogeneity in consumption patterns. The evidence for the panels of CPI-based inflation of groups of goods and services and PPI-based inflation of industrial sectors indicates the existence of four independent common stochastic trends. This, combined with jointly stationary idiosyncratic series, provides much weaker evidence of cross-cointegration for these two panels.     

Does Teacher Subject Knowledge Contribute to Student Academic Performance in Developing and Least Developed Countries?

Little is known about the causal impact of teacher knowledge on student performance. In this research paper we intend to approach the potential causal effect (i.e. going beyond correlation) of sixth grade teachers’ knowledge on their students’ academic achievement for three Sub-Saharan African countries. To achieve this, we have used the heterogeneity of teachers’ subject knowledge and students’ correspondent academic achievement within-student between-subjects using student fixed effects. Concretely, our work is based on previous research by Bietenbeck, Piopiunik and Wiederhold. Compared to them, we do not use countries that lack representative information after keeping only those students taught by the same teacher for the subjects under analysis. This enables us to obtain more reliable results on this issue. Our results indicate that teacher subject knowledge in reading and mathematics does not have a significant influence on student academic achievement in these subjects for the countries under scrutiny. Many robustness checks have corroborated this conclusion, which contrasts with the positive effect found by Bietenbeck, Piopiunik and Wiederhold.     

Power sharing and electoral equilibrium

This paper considers a model of (consensual) democracy where political parties engage first in electoral competition, and they share policy-making power afterward according with the votes gathered in the election. The paper uncovers the difficulties to guarantee stability in this institutional setting; and it provides a condition of symmetry on parties’ political motivations that ensures the existence of pure strategy equilibrium under a broad family of power sharing rules, ranging from fully proportional to winner-take-all. The equilibrium analysis shows that power sharing and ideology exert a centrifugal force on policy platforms that increases party polarization, with the paradoxical result that consensual democracies can actually lead to more radical electoral campaigns than winner-take-all.     

An assessment of the impact of EU funds through productivity boosts using CES functions

The economic effects of European Funds on recipient countries are not without controversy. We propose to study this issue focusing on the productivity coefficients of CES production functions in a multisectoral, interdependent general equilibrium model. We adopt the calibration techniques typically used in computational general equilibrium modelling to estimate a numerical improvement in the productivity coefficients of the CES functions. The array of different funds belongs to two broad categories associated with the two types of primary factors, labour and capital, that determine the output. Once we estimate the change in productivity coefficients in labour and in capital, we introduce them into a computable general equilibrium model and simulate their effects, all else being equal, in order to quantify their likely economy-wide effects.     

The Territorial Dimension: The Component of Business Strategy that Prevents the Generation of Social Conflicts

Taking advantage of economic opportunities has led to numerous conflicts between society and business in various geographies of the world. Companies have developed social responsibility programs to prevent and manage these types of problems. However, some authors comment that these programs lack a strategic vision. Starting with the Working with People model, created for the field of rural development planning, this paper proposes a methodology to prevent the generation of social conflicts from business strategy: the territorial dimension. The proposal emphasizes that local development support prevents the generation of social conflicts. Finally, an experience in Peru, a country that has been characterized in recent years by high economic growth and also by the presence of social conflicts that have stopped entrepreneurship is analyzed.     

Effects of family control on the degree and type of diversification: Empirical evidence for business groups

This article analyzes the impact of ownership structure on corporate diversification, with reference to large listed family business groups. By considering agency theory and socioemotional wealth, the study examines the relationship between family ownership, concentration of ownership, and degree and type of diversification. The study considers 99 Spanish listed business groups (50 family‐controlled‐ and 49 nonfamily‐controlled groups) and considers diversification of business group as the focus of analysis. The results show how family business groups present a lower preference for unrelated diversification than related diversification. There is also a nonlinear relationship between the concentration of ownership in family groups and the degree of diversification, showing different behaviors in family groups according to shares owned by the family's leading shareholders. This article contributes to the literature by providing a more precise identification of the corporate strategy adopted by business groups and establishing new evidence about the impact of family control on diversification strategies and the differences regarding nonfamily business groups.     

贸易政策、出口和经济增长——基于拉美国家实证数据的研究

20世纪40年代起,拉美国家采取的是以贸易保护思想为基础的进口替代政策,70年代中期开始,大部分拉美国家开始了以贸易开放、资本开放为核心的“新自由主义改革”。本文首先对拉美对外贸易政策的沿革进行回顾,就拉美的“新自由主义”改革的实效进行了一个基本考察,在此基础上,通过计量模型详细探讨了拉美国家的出口和经济增长的关系。