Forex Intervention and Reserve Management in Switzerland and Israel since the Financial Crisis: Comparison and Policy Lessons

Open Economies Review - This paper compares the appreciation pressures on the currencies of Switzerland and Israel, documents the similarities and differences between their methods of interventions...     

Increasing the relevance of mathematical approaches to demographic history

In this short paper we comment on recent efforts at formally modelling the interplay between demography and cultural evolution. We draw attention to the fact that, although these efforts are to be applauded, much work has already been done in this area, and that this work is being ignored. We build a case for tighter collaboration between different social science disciplines concerned with human behaviour and long-term demography, and argue that mathematical models must be paired with empirical data.     

Valuing executive stock options: performance hurdles, early exercise and stochastic volatility

Accounting standards require companies to assess the fair value of any stock options granted to executives and employees. We develop a model for accurately valuing executive and employee stock options, focusing on performance hurdles, early exercise and uncertain volatility. We apply the model in two case studies and show that properly computed fair values can be significantly lower than traditional Black–Scholes values. We then explore the implications for pay-for-performance sensitivity and the design of effective share-based incentive schemes. We find that performance hurdles can require a much greater fraction of total compensation to be a fixed salary, if pre-existing incentive levels are to be maintained.     

The effect of VATs on government balance sheets

The value-added tax, VAT, has become a popular means of raising funds for governments around the world. Countries seeking to reduce variation in tax revenues as well as raise revenue to solve deficits often consider a VAT, and the IMF in particular has become an advocate for the tax for countries seeking tax reform. For all its popularity, its ability to deliver on these promises remains understudied. Countries with a lower cost of raising funds may instead choose to spend more instead of paying down their debts. This paper uses matching techniques to estimate the impact of a VAT on government debts and deficits. The tax is associated with falls in central government debt and deficits as well as expenditures as a share of GDP. There is limited evidence of increases in tax revenue and increases in stability of government spending. The choice of VAT rate is positively correlated with deficit reduction, and the effects of the tax are heterogeneous with respect to the probability of adoption of the treatment and what taxes it is replacing.     

Creatine and entrepreneurship

Creatine is a nitrogenous organic acid which supplies energy to body cells and enhances physical performance. Using the Young Finns Study combined with the Finnish Linked employer-employee data we show that quantities of creatine measured in 1980 prior to labour market entry affect entrepreneurial success as measured by capital income accumulation over the period 1993–2010 (in particular for females). However, we do not find evidence that creatine affects the propensity to become an entrepreneur. Our study contributes to the emerging literature on biomarkers and entrepreneurship.     

Are paper winners gamblers? Evidence from Australian retail investors

This study examines stock market gambling using a comprehensive set of investor characteristics and past portfolio performance measures. We find that retail investors overinvest in ‘lottery stocks’, stocks with gambling‐like properties. Significant portfolio underperformance is the result of gambling through lottery stocks. Investors are more likely to gamble following recent portfolio paper gains, regardless of realised performance, providing new evidence that paper gains trigger a house money effect. Investors trading greater values or holding more stocks, and older and female investors, are less likely to invest in lottery stocks.     

Unions and the economic basis of attitudes

Unions make differences to employee satisfaction that correspond to their effects on individual economic advantage. Panel data reveal how changes in economic circumstance and changes in job satisfaction are linked to changes in union coverage. When individuals move into a union covered job they receive a wage mark‐up and express enhanced pay satisfaction. Conversely, those moving from a union covered job on average lose any mark‐up and have significantly reduced satisfaction. Similar findings emerge for working hours. On average individuals prefer shorter hours, something they tend (not) to achieve on moving (out of) into a unionised job, resulting in higher (lower) satisfaction. Switching into union coverage lowers satisfaction with job security, even though coverage has no effect on the risk of unemployment. This is because covered employees suffer greater costs of re‐employment for a given level of unemployment risk, partly because of loss of the union mark‐up.     

Health and safety risks in Britain's workplaces: where are they and who controls them?

This is the first paper to identify the correlates of workplace managers' perceptions of the health and safety risks faced by workers and the degree to which workers have control over those risks. The risks that workers face and the control they have over those risks are weakly negatively correlated. Managerial risk ratings are positively associated with both injury and illness rates, but not with absence rates. The control rating is also positively associated with injury and illness rates, but it is negatively correlated with absence rates. Workers are more likely to be exposed to health and safety risks when their workplace is performing poorly and where it has been adversely affected by the recession. Union density is positively associated with risks but is not associated with workers' control over risks. Having on‐site worker representatives dealing with health and safety is linked to lower risks than direct consultation between management and employees over health and safety. However, there is no evidence that particular types of health and safety arrangement are related to workers' control over health and safety risks.     

Responding to crisis: severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and hotels in Singapore

The sudden outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Singapore in 2003 was a grave crisis for the tourism industry as a whole and highlights the importance of effectively managing and planning for such occurrences. This study looks at the particular consequences of the infectious virus for the hotel sector and reactions to the challenges posed. Further health‐related crises seem inevitable in the modern world and some guidelines for dealing with these are proposed, based on the Singapore experience and an existing framework for tourism crisis management. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The lead–lag relationship between equities and stock index futures markets around information releases

This paper documents a strengthening in the lead of stock index futures returns over stock index returns around macroeconomic information releases. Some evidence of a strengthening in feedback from the equities market to the futures market and weakening in the lead of the futures market around major stock‐specific information releases is also provided. This is consistent with the hypothesis that investors with better marketwide information prefer to trade in stock index futures while investors with stock‐specific information prefer to trade in underlying stocks. A small weakening in the contemporaneous relationship between stock index futures returns and stock index returns around both types of releases is also documented. This is consistent with disintegration in the relationship between the two markets associated with noise induced volatility. One by‐product of this study is new comparative evidence on the performance of adjustments for infrequent trading of index stocks based on a commonly used ARMA technique versus recalculation of the stock index using quote midpoints. The results suggest that the quote midpoint index performs at least as well as the ARMA adjusted index across the entire sample period, as well as around the different types of information releases. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:467–487, 2000