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91.
92.
Incomplete information is a necessary condition for any real effects produced by monetary impulses. An alternative to the local-global inference problem is explored in this paper. Agents are confronted with permanent and transitory shocks. Even with full knowledge about the stochastic structure their best perception at any particular time will usually be erroneous. Prices for each period are set at the beginning of the period on the basis of market conditions. The realization of the shock process thus creates a short-run ‘disequilibrium’ absorbed by inventory adjustments. This adjustment translates perceived transitory monetary shocks into serially correlated output movements. The analysis proceeds within the context of rational expectations It offers a generalization of equilibrium analysis in two respects. Prices are always in equilibrium relative to perceived conditions, but they do not reflect all ongoing shocks. Quantity adjustments reflect the perceived transitory shocks. The framework used involves moreover a stock-flow interaction operated by inventory adjustments. The stock-flow interaction imposes at any time a future expected adjustment path (for price-level and quantities) to the system's unique stock equilibrium. A major implication of the analysis resolves a puzzle experienced in a recent paper by Robert Hall. It reconciles intertemporal substitution with lagged effects of monetary impulses. It also reconciles small and inconclusive cyclic movements in real wages with the occurrence of production function and large variations in unemployment. Lastly, the nature of the inference problem determined by the pattern of incomplete information produces serially correlated movements conditioned on large permanent shocks. 相似文献
93.
This artice considers the trends in the public expenditure/GDP ratio over the last 28 years or so, in five countries: Cyprus, France, Greece, the UK and the USA. An empirical investigation incorporating both economic and political variables is conducted into the observed pattern of the ratio for the five countries. Our results suggest that whilst some of the host of factors advanced as explanations for the size and growth of the public sector exert a significant influence, the ‘relative price effect’ tends to dominate. The results also suggest strongly that the notable short-run fluctuations in the ratio are explained in terms of political displacement effects and economic crises considerations. Moreover, the contrasting political and economic climates of the countries in question serve to help highlight the role which political cultures play in the determination of public expenditure. 相似文献
94.
This paper tests the hypothesis that information about housing market activity and about specific dwellings becomes capitalized into single family dwelling prices through a disequilibrium adjustment process. A dynamic price adjustment model, which is an extension of the standard hedonic model widely used in the literature, is derived, specified, and tested with both micro and aggregated data from the city of Chicago and for the period 1972–1976. The results show that from 32 to 75% of the variance in dwelling prices, unexplained by the standard hedonic attributes under assumptions of equilibrium, is explained by market activity signals such as mortgage interest rates and neighborhood transaction rates of the preceding period. Dwellings about which there is less information, making comparison pricing difficult, are shown to command a price premium. The standard equilibrium hypothesis appears readily rejectable and better predictions are obtained from the disequilibrium specifications. Several directions for extending this line of research are discussed. 相似文献
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Alex Cukierman 《Economics Letters》1978,1(2):151-155
This letter considers the consequences of heterogeneous inflationary expectations for Fisher's theory of interest. It is further shown that divergent and erroneous expectations cause welfare losses which increase when either the variance of expectations or of actualinflation increase. 相似文献
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Alex Y.H. LoC.Y. Jim 《Land use policy》2012,29(3):577-586
Residents’ views are pertinent in urban-park design and management, yet they are often ignored. Social-empirical studies could enhance socially relevant park design. As a compact city, Hong Kong's limited greenspaces are often too small, surrounded by incompatible activities, and fail to meet user demands and expectations. This study explores the response of citizens living in the crowded urban milieu to inadequate greenspace provision. A questionnaire survey gleaned opinion from residents in representative residential neighbourhoods in old city and new towns. Green sites are appreciated more for pragmatic microclimatic and amenity benefits than social and high-order environmental functions. The principal limitations are deficiency in sports facilities and greenery. Respondents favour more trees, dispersed seating design and large parks. The preferences are mainly related to age, income, education and retirement status. The high-density living milieu may have weakened attitude and perception towards urban nature. The findings could inform public policies and programmes on urban parks. They call for an institutional restructuring to facilitate active public engagement in greenspace planning and management. 相似文献