Bank capital buffers in a dynamic model

We estimate a dynamic structural banking model to examine the interaction between risk-weighted capital adequacy and unweighted leverage requirements, their differential impact on bank lending, and equity buffer accumulation in excess of regulatory minima. Tighter risk-weighted capital requirements reduce loan supplies and lead to an endogenous fall in bank profitability, reducing bank incentives to accumulate equity buffers and, therefore, increasing the incidence of bank failure. Alternatively, tighter leverage requirements increase lending, preserve bank charter value, and incentives to accumulate equity buffers leading to lower bank failure rates.     

Suburban Practices of Energy Descent

This article proceeds on the basis that the cost of energy will rise in coming years and decades as the age of fossil energy abundance comes to an end. Given the close connection between energy and economic activity, we also assume that declining energy availability and affordability will lead to economic contraction and reduced material affluence. In overconsuming and overdeveloped nations, such resource and energy “degrowth” is desirable and necessary from a sustainability perspective, provided it is planned for and managed in ways consistent with basic principles of distributive equity. Working within that degrowth paradigm, we examine how scarcer and more expensive energy may impact the suburban way of life and how households might prepare for this very plausible, but challenging, energy descent future. The article examines energy demand management in suburbia and how the limited energy needed to provide for essential household services can best be secured in an era of expensive energy and climate instability. After reviewing various energy practices, we also highlight a need for an ethos of sufficiency, moderation, and radical frugality, which we argue is essential for building resilience in the face of forthcoming energy challenges and a harsher climate.     

Half‐panel jackknife fixed‐effects estimation of linear panels with weakly exogenous regressors

This paper considers estimation and inference in linear panel regression models with lagged dependent variables and/or other weakly exogenous regressors when N (the cross‐section dimension) is large relative to T (the time series dimension). It allows for fixed and time effects (FE‐TE) and derives a general formula for the bias of the FE‐TE estimator which generalizes the well‐known Nickell bias formula derived for the pure autoregressive dynamic panel data models. It shows that in the presence of weakly exogenous regressors inference based on the FE‐TE estimator will result in size distortions unless N/T is sufficiently small. To deal with the bias and size distortion of the FE‐TE estimator the use of a half‐panel jackknife FE‐TE estimator is considered and its asymptotic distribution is derived. It is shown that the bias of the half‐panel jackknife FE‐TE estimator is of order T^?2, and for valid inference it is only required that N/T³→0, as N,T→∞ jointly. Extension to unbalanced panel data models is also provided. The theoretical results are illustrated with Monte Carlo evidence. It is shown that the FE‐TE estimator can suffer from large size distortions when N>T, with the half‐panel jackknife FE‐TE estimator showing little size distortions. The use of half‐panel jackknife FE‐TE estimator is illustrated with two empirical applications from the literature.     

Consumer preferences for human uniqueness in marketing communications

Brand images that remind us of our similarities with other animals are not uncommon in marketing. Conversely, research indicates that we hold subconscious preferences for human distinctiveness from all other animals as a means to defend existentially related self-esteem. The current research explores the different conditions in which these preferences materialize and are reversed. Consumers with high levels of existential anxiety reveal more favorable brand attitudes after being exposed to advertisements promoting human uniqueness as opposed to human–animal sameness. These effects also lead to increased donation likelihood toward a charitable organization fighting for the preservation of endangered species. Interestingly under conditions of low existential anxiety, these effects reverse.     

Analyst versus model-based earnings forecasts: implied cost of capital applications

We find that a composite implied cost of capital (ICC) estimate – based on the earnings forecasts generated by cross-sectional models – is highly correlated with future realised returns in both portfolio- and regression-based tests. By contrast, we find very little evidence for an association with future realised returns for an ICC estimate based on analyst earnings forecasts. We also document the time-varying nature of expected returns and risk premia, and provide up-to-date estimates of an implied Australian market risk premium.     

ARE IMPACTS OF EARLY INTERVENTIONS IN THE SCANDINAVIAN WELFARE STATE CONSISTENT WITH A HECKMAN CURVE? A META‐ANALYSIS

“Early intervention” has been a mantra in recent debates about human capital investment. Strong theoretical models motivate this focus by predicting that investment in children is most cost‐effective when they are young. The “Heckman curve” summarizes this idea visually (Heckman, 2006). However, hardly any reviews scrutinize this hypothesis empirically in modern welfare states such as those in Scandinavia that already invest heavily during early childhood. Any such review is ideally based on interventions conducted as randomized controlled trials (RCTs), set in the same welfare state, and comparable across ages through cost‐standardized effects. This meta‐analysis assembles cost‐standardized effect estimates from 10 RCTs, including a total of 18 intervention arms and 30,578 participants (aged 1.5–24 years), conducted by the same research center in the Scandinavian welfare state of Denmark. These interventions show significant effects relative to their costs, despite the large baseline investment level. Interventions targeted at younger children tend to produce larger effects, consistent with the Heckman curve. However, variation in the effect size within age groups is as large as it is across age groups. This indicates that both the quality and timing of investments matter and that “early interventions” are not necessarily superior to later interventions.     

Valuation Implications of Unconditional Accounting Conservatism: Evidence from Analysts' Target Prices

We examine whether financial analysts understand the valuation implications of unconditional accounting conservatism when forecasting target prices. While accounting conservatism affects reported earnings, conservatism per se does not have an effect on the present value of future cash flows. We examine whether analysts adjust for the effect of conservatism included in their earnings forecasts when using these forecasts to estimate target prices. We find that signed target price errors (actual minus forecast) have a significant positive association with the degree of conservatism in forward earnings, suggesting that target prices are biased due to accounting conservatism. Cross‐sectional analysis suggests that more sophisticated analysts and superior long‐term forecasters adjust for conservatism to a greater extent than other analysts. In additional analyses, we explore the mechanism through which conservatism leads to bias in target prices. We first show that analysts' earnings forecasts are negatively associated with the degree of conservatism; that is, analysts include the effect of unconditional conservatism in their earnings forecasts. Based on alternative earnings‐based valuation models that analysts may use, our evidence suggests that analysts fail to appropriately adjust their valuation multiple for the effect of conservatism included in their earnings forecasts when using these forecasts to derive target prices. As a consequence, we find that, for extreme changes in conservatism, the bias in analysts' target prices due to conservatism leads to a distortion of market prices. The evidence highlights the concern that analysts may not appreciate the valuation implications of conservative accounting which could inhibit price discovery.     

Consecrating video games as cultural artifacts: Intellectual legitimation as a source of industry renewal

The video games industry, one of the fastest growing creative industries and now engaging larger proportions of populations as smartphones and tablets achieve wider use, seeks to enhance its institutional legitimacy in order to further exploit the new economic possibilities provided by, for example, portable digital media and their market penetration. This strategy is based on a form of consecration, a portrayal of video games as cultural artifacts, i.e., objects carrying a wider cultural and aesthetic significance than merely being a form of entertainment. In order to consecrate the video game, the industry relies on video game reviewers and journalists. This strategy, rooted in market opportunity recognition, challenges some of the conventional wisdom of the industry, the gamer community, and the inherited mainstream media view. As a consequence, institutional legitimacy is not easily acquired or earned since historical conditions and path-dependencies also matter in high-pace industries such as the video game industry.     

Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts

We introduce the first publicly available data set of constant‐quality house price indices for counties, ZIP codes and census tracts in the United States, at an annual frequency, over a 40‐year period. Between 1990 and 2015, house price gradients within large cities steepen, documenting a reversal of decades of increasing relative desirability of suburban locations. Real house prices are more likely to be nonstationary near the centers of large cities. Within‐city differences in house price appreciation at the ZIP code level are, on average, about half of between‐city differences, though this ratio varies depending on the time period and city size.     

The value of active politicians on supervisory boards: evidence from the Berlin stock exchange and the parliament in interwar Germany

We provide the first overview over all political connections of firms via current Members of Parliament on supervisory boards and board of directors listed on the Berlin stock exchange in the 1920s. In contrast to anecdotal evidence, which suggest that political connections were expected to have a positive effect on firms’ performance, an event study based on the election in December 1924 and May 1928 shows only little evidence that a political connection via a newly elected or re-elected politician generated value. These results complement previous research emphasising that political connections might have mattered less in democracies.