灵活度：货运业务的新法宝

迈克尔·威斯布伦（Michael Wis-brun）目前担任法-荷航货运部门的主席,他认为未来最主要的特点之一就是不确定性。从短期看,他依然对半导体行业发展看好,因此有利于航空货运业的发展,但是今后法-荷航集团的战略应该更具有＂适应性＂,以面对今后可能出现的各种经济挑战。“我们正在努力告诉所有人不要谈论未来的实质含义，因为这很难精确预测，而我们能够实施的是灵活性。”     

Modelling Time Series of Counts in Epidemiology

We review generalized dynamic models for time series of count data. Usually temporal counts are modelled as following a Poisson distribution, and a transformation of the mean depends on parameters which evolve smoothly with time. We generalize the usual dynamic Poisson model by considering continuous mixtures of the Poisson distribution. We consider Poisson‐gamma and Poisson‐log‐normal mixture models. These models have a parameter for each time t which captures possible extra‐variation present in the data. If the time interval between observations is short, many observed zeros might result. We also propose zero inflated versions of the models mentioned above. In epidemiology, when a count is equal to zero, one does not know if the disease is present or not. Our model has a parameter which provides the probability of presence of the disease given no cases were observed. We rely on the Bayesian paradigm to obtain estimates of the parameters of interest, and discuss numerical methods to obtain samples from the resultant posterior distribution. We fit the proposed models to artificial data sets and also to a weekly time series of registered number of cases of dengue fever in a district of the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2001 and 2002.     

The Regulation of Professional Migration: Insights from the Health and IT Sectors in ASEAN

This paper develops several indicators to measure the extent and depth of rules governing international migration. It is set in the context of moves towards further liberalisation of services trade and associated labour mobility (Mode 4) under GATS and related regional trading arrangements. Ten Southeast Asian countries at various stages of economic development are examined as a case study, with special reference to health care and information technology. These sectors are priority sectors for regional cooperation in services trade in ASEAN, but were expected to represent opposite extremes in terms of the regulation of migration. The study finds that the more advanced countries tend to have more liberal regimes for international movements of skilled manpower, although there were smaller differences regarding general visa and work permit arrangements. Generic restrictions on mobility were related to trade policies, as well as to direct barriers (often country‐specific) to migration. They included minimum salary requirement, levies on foreign workers, economic needs tests, and limitations related to language, education and job experience. Controls were more extensive in the health care sector, related to social considerations as well as professional organisational interests.     

Collective decisions with interdependent valuations

Many collective decision problems have in common that individuals’ desired outcomes are correlated but not identical. This paper studies collective decisions with private information about desired policies. Each agent holds private information which mainly concerns his own bliss point, but private information also affects all other agents. We concentrate on two specific mechanism, the median and mean mechanisms establish the existence of symmetric Bayesian Nash equilibria of the corresponding games and compare the performance of the mechanisms for different degrees of interdependencies. Applications of our framework include the provision of public goods and the design of decision processes in international organizations.     

Companies' participation in EMAS: The influence of the public regulator

When adopted in 1993, the European Union's Eco‐Management and Audit Scheme (EMAS) was viewed as emblematic of a new policy approach involving more flexible and market‐based environmental instruments. A few years after coming into force, EMAS does not appear to be a tremendous success in terms of industrial participation. Apart from in Germany and Austria, participation is insignificant and comparatively very far behind that in ISO 14001, the environmental management standard of the International Organization for Standardization. The paper seeks to explain this modest result. It focuses on the influence of the European and national regulators on industrial participation. Using a comparative analysis of the implementation of EMAS in France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, it argues that the most powerful participation leverage has been the granting of regulatory relief for registered companies. This leads one to be pessimistic as to the future of EMAS. The possibility and scope for a lighter regulatory touch are primarily nationally specific since they are related to the national regulatory traditions. Consequently, the systematic and comprehensive use of this leverage is unlikely to generalize. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. and ERP Environment.     

The challenge from below: an analysis of the role of the shop steward in industrial relations

An analysis of the shop steward's position in industry makes it clear that his task is complicated by the different roles demanded of him by management, his union, the rank and file, and not least, his own conception of his role.     

The aims and methods of the education and training of shop stewards: a case study

The author's research indicates that management's objectives in releasing shop stewards for courses and the shop stewards' objectives may be quite different. Views on how far courses should be “education” and how far “training”, and the best structure for courses, also emerged from this study.     

Exploring ethnic consumer response to crossover brand extensions

This research uses a social identity theory approach to investigate the impact of cultural identity on ethnic consumer response to ethnic crossover brand extensions—brands associated with one ethnic group that crossover into a product category associated with another ethnic group (e.g., McDonald's Café con leche). Study 1 demonstrates that the manner in which crossover brand extensions blend ethnic consumers' in-group and out-group cultural representations impact brand extension cultural fit and parent brand attitudes, and perceived ethnic target market impacts brand extension attitudes. Study 2 demonstrates that high ethnic embeddedness extensions strengthen ethnic consumers' self-brand connections. These findings provide managerial implications for practitioners considering a crossover brand extension strategy.