Industrial relations in South-Eastern Europe: disaggregating the contexts

This study critically evaluates industrial relations (IR) in South-Eastern Europe and points towards future practical and research-oriented opportunities in the region. A survey of organizational policies and practices has been used to explore the state of IR in both private and public organizations in this region. Specifically, the data, collected in 2009–2010 (including the latest changes due to the economic crisis), cover 840 different organizations located in Slovenia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece and Cyprus. We discuss the development of ‘regional-specific’ IR policies, the ‘importing’ of varieties of capitalism models, the diffusion of the European Union social model and the role of foreign MNCs in changing IR in the region.     

The role of political tactics on the organizational context–career success relationship

Drawing from the norm of reciprocity, signal theory, and psychological contracts, we argue that the use of different types of political tactics, based on their social desirability, can be reciprocal behavioral reactions to contextual cues (i.e. perceptions of organizational support and politics) that can predict career success. Using a sample of 117 middle managers, our findings suggest that the use of sanctioned political tactics partially mediates the relationship between perceptions of organizational support and career success, while non-sanctioned political tactics suppress the relationship between perceptions of organizational politics and career success.     

The Euro and inflation uncertainty in the European Monetary Union

This paper adopts a time-varying GARCH framework to estimate short-run and steady-state inflation uncertainty in 12 EMU countries, and then investigates their relationship with inflation. The effects of the Euro introduction in 1999 are examined by utilising a dummy variable. Tests for endogenously determined breaks are also employed. We find a considerable degree of heterogeneity across EMU countries in terms of average inflation, its degree of persistence, and both types of uncertainty, whilst the trend component of inflation is generally decreasing. Various breaks in the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty are found, frequently well before the Euro introduction.     

FORECASTING US INFLATION USING DYNAMIC GENERAL‐TO‐SPECIFIC MODEL SELECTION

We forecast US inflation using a standard set of macroeconomic predictors and a dynamic model selection and averaging methodology that allows the forecasting model to change over time. Pseudo out‐of‐sample forecasts are generated from models identified from a multipath general‐to‐specific algorithm that is applied dynamically using rolling regressions. Our results indicate that the inflation forecasts that we obtain employing a short rolling window substantially outperform those from a well‐established univariate benchmark, and contrary to previous evidence, are considerably robust to alternative forecast periods.     

The investment development path in space

Although spatial hypotheses are not new in the FDI literature, their examination in the dynamic context of the ‘investment development path’ (IDP) provides some new insights. In this paper, we examine proximity to markets at different stages of the IDP as a determinant of a country’s own foreign direct investment (FDI) pattern. Our main contribution lies in the empirical estimation of the importance of spatial determinants for the emergence of inward and outward FDI. Our results support that distance to countries at higher stages up the IDP which are better integrated into the world FDI network, has a negative effect on the probability of transition from any stage of the IDP to the next. The magnitude of the impact is generally increasing in the stage of the surrounding markets.     

Savings and default

We develop a model in which individuals compete for a fixed pool of prizes by investing effort in a contest. Individuals belong to two separate and identifiable groups. We say that the contest is discriminatory if a lower share of prizes is reserved for one group than for the other. We show that it can be difficult for an observer to detect the presence or absence of discrimination in the contest, as both regimes can be observationally equivalent. In particular, one group’s belief that it is allocated a lower share of prizes than the other group can be consistent with observed data even if no such group quotas actually exist. Conversely, the belief that the contest does not discriminate can be consistent with data when, in fact, discrimination exists. Incorrect beliefs will therefore not be revised, as the contest generates no evidence to the contrary.     

Managing mutual funds or managing expense ratios? Evidence from the Greek fund industry

This study examines the expense ratio policy of Greek equity funds operating in a small emerging market with an oligopolistic, bank-dominated financial system. Constructing a unique dataset of non-publicly available expense ratios charged by these funds, we examine the impact these expenses have on funds’ performance and flows. The main conclusion is that funds’ performance is negatively related to their expenses, while investors’ flows are not directly affected by expenses. Furthermore, the funds affiliated with one of the three dominant domestic banking groups achieve higher performance and attract higher net flows in comparison to their competitors.     

Is it all about money? An examination of the motives behind moonlighting

Multiple-job holding is an important labour market phenomenon. In this article, we examine individuals’ motives for multiple-job holding. Specifically, we estimate an empirical model of the motivation for moonlighting assuming that individuals hold a second job for either financial or for nonpecuniary motives. Our results contribute to a better understanding of multiple-job holding. We find that multiple-job holding is used by individuals as a way to deal with the financial difficulties or the increased financial commitments in their household. Individuals are more likely to moonlight for money in the early stages of their adult life. Finally, individuals with more labour market experience are more likely to moonlight for pecuniary than nonpecuniary reasons.     

Stock market reaction to fed funds rate surprises: State dependence and the financial crisis

This paper examines the response of US stock returns to Federal Funds rate (FFR) surprises between 1989 and 2012, focusing on the impact of the recent financial crisis. We find that outside the crisis period, stock prices increased as a response to unexpected FFR cuts. State dependence is identified with stocks exhibiting larger increases when interest rate easing coincided with recessions, bear markets, and tightening credit conditions. However, an important structural shift occurred during the crisis, changing the stocks’ response to FFR shocks and the nature of state dependence. Throughout the crisis period, stocks did not react positively to unexpected FFR cuts, which were interpreted as signals of worsening future economic conditions. This triggered a rebalancing of investment portfolios away from falling equities and towards safe-haven assets. Our results highlight the severity of the crisis and the ineffectiveness of conventional monetary policy close to the zero lower bound.     

On the Use of the Moving Average Trading Rule to Test for Weak Form Efficiency in Capital Markets

The examination for the possible existence of predictive power in the moving average trading rule has been used extensively to test the hypothesis of weak form market efficiency in capital markets. This work focuses mainly on the study of the variation of the moving average (MA) trading rule performance as a function of the length of the longer MA. Empirical analysis of daily data from NYSE and the Athens Stock Exchange reveal high variability of the performance of the MA trading rule as a function of the MA length and on some occasions the series of successive trading rule total returns is non‐stationary. These findings have direct implications in weak form market efficiency testing. Indeed, given this high variability of the performance of the MA trading rule, by just finding out that trading rules with some specific combinations of MA lengths can or cannot beat the market, as is the case in most of the published work thus far, is not enough evidence for or against the existence of weak form market efficiency. Results also show that on average in about three out of four cases trading rule signals are false, a fact that leaves a lot of space for improved trading rule performance if trading rule signals are combined with other information (e.g. filters, or volume of trade). Finally, some evidence of enhanced trading rule performance for the shorter MA lengths was found. This enhanced performance is partly attributed to the higher probability that a trading rule signal is not a whipsaw, as well as to the larger number of days out‐of‐the‐market which are associated with shorter MA lengths.