Angebotsökonomie: wenig Innovation — viele Jobs!

Deregulation of labour markets through structural reforms as proposed by supply side economists has a negative impact on innovation and brings down the growth rates of labour productivity. This paper discusses why the Schumpeter II innovation model is functioning poorly with higher labour turnover. Deregulation of labour markets also changes power relations between capital and labour, which leads to lower wage growth. Panel data analyses show that a one per cent lower wage increase leads to 0.32-0.49% lower growth of value added per labour hour.     

The predictive ability of a risk-adjusted yield spread for economic activity in Europe

This paper examines whether the pricing of risk is important for macroeconomic activity at the country level. We design a risk-adjusted yield spread and test its predictive content for economic activity on the periphery and the centre of Europe over the 1990–2012 period. This risk-adjusted bond yield spread is defined in a cross-country context and referred to as the GZ-type spread. Increases in the yield on corporate bonds issued in the countries on the periphery relative to the riskless yield (calculated using German zero-coupon term structure data) reflect increases in the risk premium that the financial market imposes on borrowers. The risk premium rises in all countries during European-wide recessions of the recent past, particularly those associated with the Global Financial and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Our findings indicate further that this GZ-type spread acts as a reliable signal for imminent and near-term economic activity in countries where financial markets were shaken to their foundations during the Crisis period. For Germany, the GZ-spread has predictive content for industrial production but not for the unemployment rate. For GDP its predictive ability is confined to the EMU period.     

Inflation and output dynamics in a model with labor market search and capital accumulation

In a sticky-price model with labor market search and habit persistence, Walsh (2005) shows that inertia in the interest rate policy helps to reconcile the inflation and output persistence with empirical observations for the US economy. We show that this finding is sensitive with regard to the introduction of capital formation. While we are able to replicate the findings for the inflation inertia in a model with capital adjustment costs and variable capacity utilization, the output response to an interest shock is found to be too large and no longer hump-shaped in this case. In addition we find that the response of output to a technology shock can only be reconciled with empirical findings if either the adjustment of the utilization rate is very costly or there is only a modest amount of nominal rigidity in the economy.     

Cyclically oscillating product quality: A simple model of the product life cycle

This paper presents a dynamic model of the firm, where the firm can exert influence on demand by setting the price and by controlling the quality index. Assuming profit maximization, it is shown by means of the Hopf Bifurcation theorem that persistent oscillations of the variables may occur if there is positive growth at the steady state together with a high discount rate. Oscillations may also occur if the influence of an additional unit of the quality index on demand and price is sufficiently large, thus yielding a special version of the product life cycle. A numerical example is used in order to illustrate the results derived in the general framework. Valuable comments from an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged.     

Benefit-cost analysis of family planning

A stochastic model is developed to estimate the expected social costs with and without a family planning program provided to a population. By examining the tradeoffs between the program costs and the costs of unwanted pregnancies, it is possible to estimate the costs and benefits of alternative family planning programs. Several extensions of the basic model are presented which permit the selection of optimal treatment variables for administration of a particular program as well as determining the long range effects of a particular family planning program.     

Living to 100 and beyond--implications of longer life spans

The challenge of longer life spans will center on the problem of allocating individual, family and social resources most effectively. To create a context for understanding the significance of measuring and forecasting mortality trends, this article addresses concerns about the implications of increasing longevity to very high ages for families, businesses and society as a whole.     

Observations on the Schumpeterian swarming of innovations

The hypothesis that depressions trigger innovations is examined first on theoretical grounds, and then with a random sample of 120 innovations. Radical product innovations, the alleged basis for new ‘Schumpeterian’ industries, indeed cluster around the 1930s crisis, but are closely associated with the less severely hit modern industries. Process innovations and less radical product changes are associated more with periods of prosperity. The final section considers whether new ‘Schumpeterian’ industries are a precondition for, or the result of, economic upswings.