The 1974 increase in oil price: Optimum tariff or transfer problem?

Zusammenfassung Die ?lpreiserh?hung von 1974: Ein Problem des optimalen Zolltarifs oder ein Transfer-Problem ? —Mit diesem Aufsatz werden zwei Ziele verfolgt: Zun?chst werden die ?lpreisanpassungen von 1974 im Rahmen der traditionellen Handelstheorie erkl?rt. Sodann werden optimale Politiken analysiert, und zwar vom kosmopolitischen und vom nationalen Standpunkt aus. Dabei wird gezeigt, da\ es Arrangements gibt, die sowohl für die ?lexportierenden als auch für die ?limportierenden L?nder vorteilhafter sind als die Preisfestsetzung durch ein Kartell. Au\erdem wird gezeigt, da\ bestimmte unilaterale Politiken, wie die Herabsetzung der Besteuerung von ?limporten, die Wohlfahrt in diesen L?ndern verringern. Die Analyse weist auch darauf hin, da\ es nicht leicht sein dürfte, das ?lkartell und seine Preispolitik auf lange Sicht aufrechtzuerhalten. Zum Beispiel wird eine schnelle Anpassung der Ausgaben der ?lexportierenden L?nder an die neuen Terms of Trade ihre eigene optimale Tarifpolitik beeintr?chtigen.

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Résumé L’accroissement de prix pétrolier en 1974: Un tarif optimal ou un problème de transfert? —Dans cet article on poursuit deux buts: Premièrement, on rationalise les ajustements de prix pétrolier de 1974 au dedans d’un cadre théorique traditionel de commerce. Deuxièmement, on analyse des politiques optimales du point de vue cosmopolite aussi bien que nationaliste. On montre qu’il y a des arrangements qui sont mieux que le cartel de prix pour les pays exportant le pétrole aussi bien que pour les pays important le pétrole. De plus on montre quelques politiques unilatérales qui réduisent le ?welfare? dans ces pays comme par exemple une taxe réduite sur le pétrole importé. Notre analyse montre aussi qu’on ne peut pas facilement maintenir le cartel de pétrole et sa politique de prix à long terme. Par exemple un ajustement prompt des dépenses des pays exportant le pétrole aux nouveaux termes des échanges vaincra leur propre optimale politique tarifaire.

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Resumen El incremento del precio del petróleo del a?o 1974: ? un problema de transferencia o de tarifa óptima ? —En este artículo se persiguen dos fines. En primer lugar se racionalizan los ajustes de precios del petróleo del a?o 1974 dentro del marco teórico del comercio tradicional. En segundo lugar se analizan políticas óptimas desde el punto de vista cosmopolita y nacionalista respectivamente. Se muestra que existen arreglos que permiten una ganancia tanto para el pais exportador como importador de petróleo, en relación a una situación de carteles de precios. Aún más, se muestra que ciertas políticas unilaterales tales como la reducción de impuestos a la importación de petróleo pueden causar una reducción del bienestar en estos países. Nuestro anàlisis también indica que el cartel petrolero y su política de precios sera dificil de mantener en el largo plazo. Por ejemplo, un rápido ajuste de los gastos de los países exportadores de petróleo a los nuevos términos del intercambio derrotará la propia política de la tarifa óptima.

     

License trade with COMECON states

The present article, which is based on some chapters of the author’s doctorate thesis¹, investigates why the trade in licenses between the Federal Republic of Germany and state-trading countries is at present still negligible. For this purpose the policy of the state-trading countries in regard to licenses is explained, the causes which impede this trade are pointed out and suggestions made for their removal.     

Growth Effects of Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability in the EU

In this paper we study the relationship of fiscal policy and economicperformance of some core countries in the EU. Our aim is to find outwhether public deficit and public debt have consequences for real variables in the economies we consider. The background of our empirical study is a growth model that provides us with some predictions on the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth. In a first step we then use Granger causality tests to analyze empirically whether some of the implications of our model arecompatible with the data. In a second step, we investigate whether the fiscalpolicies of the member states have been sustainable. Given this information,we then pursue the question of whether differences in the fiscal positions ofcountries have consequences as concerns the outcome of our empirical testsof step one. Finally, we study whether the impact of the public deficit ratiodepends on the magnitude of the debt ratio.     

Diffusion and adoption of advanced emission abatement technology induced by permit trading

This paper analyzes firm incentives to diffuse and adopt advanced abatement technology for three different regimes of tradeable emission permits (auctioning, benchmarking, and grandfathering). We particularly consider technical change that decreases marginal abatement costs (MACs) only at high emission levels, whereas it increases them at low firm emissions. We establish that the desirability of the different regimes of allocating permits to firms is critically influenced by how MACs are changed by technological improvements.     

Arzthaftung auf der Grundlage von Statistiken

The evidence-based medicine describes the effectiveness of medical therapies by statistical success rates. It’s results can serve as standards of healthcare in medical malpractice liability cases. In the following paper it is shown that these success rates depend on the subjective judging what success is. They further depend on the way how the won data are mathematically processed. The main problem however is that the success rates are of statistical nature. It is known from mathematical statistics that a statistic result does not give any information about the behaviour of a single and specific element, in case of medicine about the effect of a therapy on a concrete patient. In consequence competitive therapies cannot be compared on the basis of statistical information in a specific medical malpractice case. A doctor must therefore inform the patient prior to a therapy about this situation.     

Patterns and Determinants of Price Changes: Analysing Individual Consumer Prices in Austria

Abstract. We provide empirical evidence on the degree and characteristics of price stickiness in Austria by estimating the average frequency of price changes and the duration of price spells from a large dataset of individual price records collected for the computation of the Austrian consumer price index. The mean (median) duration of price spells in Austria amounts to 14 (11) months, but there is considerable heterogeneity across sectors and products. We find that price increases occur only slightly more often than price decreases. For both directions, the average magnitude of price changes is quite large (11% and 14%, respectively). The introduction of the euro cash in January 2002 led to more frequent but, on average, smaller price adjustments than usual. Estimating the probability of a price change in a panel probit model, we find a small but positive effect of the price spell duration on the incidence of price changes. Furthermore, product‐specific inflation, the size and the sign of the last price change and the period of the euro introduction significantly affect the probability of a price change.     

Labor Market Institutions and the Role of Elites in Flexicurity Societies

The paper argues that a process of capital accumulation exhibiting recurrent mass unemployment—due to the conflict over income distribution—does not represent a process that is adequate for a democratic society in the long run. The paper develops a basic macrodynamic framework where this process of cyclical growth is overcome by an ‘employer of first resort’ (an entity that provides employment security but not job security), added to an economic reproduction process that is highly competitive (flexible). Such a flexicurity system is characterized by high labor and capital mobility, with fluctuations of employment in the private sector made socially acceptable through a second labor market where all remaining workers are able to find meaningful occupation and sufficient income. We study on this basis a disaggregation of the labor market into skilled and high-skilled labor, as well as professional and political elites. The stability and sustainability propositions of the homogeneous labor case generalize to this extended situation.