Exchange rates of oil exporting countries and global oil price shocks: a nonlinear smooth-transition approach

This paper models logistic and exponential smooth transition adjustments of real exchange rates for six major oil-exporting countries in response to different shocks affecting oil prices. The logistic form captures asymmetric and the exponential form symmetric adjustments in regards to positive and negative oil price shocks. We chose oil-exporting countries that do not peg their exchange rates. For most countries, we detect no statistically significant non-linearities for the adjustment process of real exchange rate returns, be they asymmetric or symmetric, in response to oil supply shocks, idiosyncratic oil-market-specific shocks, and speculative oil-market shocks. Exceptions are oil supply shocks in the UK and possibly Brazil, where exchange rates respond nonlinearly, though the effects are symmetric for both countries. On the other hand, global aggregate demand shocks, which are shocks not originating directly in the oil market, have nonlinear asymmetric effects on real exchange rate returns for Canada, Mexico, Norway and Russia, and nonlinear symmetric effects for Brazil and the UK.     

Industrial replacement

The problem of industrial replacement has been attacked on an essentially empirical basis by various writers, more especially and quite lately by E. B. Kurtz ¹ E. B. Kurtz, Life Expectancy of Physical Property, Ronald Press 1930; R. Winfrey and E. B. Kurtz, Life Characteristics of Physical Property, Bulletin 103 of the Iowa Engineering Experiment Station, Iowa State College, 1931. But its mathematical analysis, which is quite within the range of modern technique, has not in prior publications ² A special case has been discussed by H. Bateman, Messenger of Mathematics 1920 Vol. 49, p. 134. A more general discussion has been given by R. Frisch, Statsekonomisk Tidskrift, 1927, pp. 117-152. See also B. Meidell, Skandinavisk Aktuarietidskrift 1926 p. 172; J1. Washington Acad. Sci. 1928 p. 437. been advanced to the point at which it becomes applicable to Kurtz's data. The requisite analysis is, as a matter of fact, readily conducted by methods very similar to those applicable to certain problems of population growth and structure, which indeed closely resemble the problem of industrial replacement. ³ F. R. Sharpe and A. J. Lotka, A Problem in Age Distribution, Phil. Mag. April 1911 p. 435; A. J. Lotka, The Progeny of a Population Element, American Journal of Hygiene, 1928, vol. 8, p. 875; idem The Spread of Generations, Human Biology, 1929, vol. 1, p. 305.      

Über den Einfluss einer Änderung der Sterblichkeit auf die Prämienreserve

Abstract

In einer Note über die Theorie des Deekungskapitales habe ieh für das reduzierte Kapital der gemisehten Versicherung auf die Beträge At den Ausdruck gebraueht (1) wobei als Deckungsintensität bezeichnet wurde.     

Performance Reporting – The IASB's Proposed Formats of Financial Statements in the Exposure Draft of IAS 1

This paper is a response to the exposure draft of proposed amendments to IAS 1 Presentation of Financial Statements published by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) in March 2006. The objective is to bring to the standard setter's attention research that is relevant to the issues raised in the exposure draft. We review analytic, empirical and experimental research that addresses the presentation of income and the format of the income statement. Overall, there is some support for a single statement of (total) recognised income and expense. However, net income is on average more relevant than comprehensive income, which may favour a two-statement approach. While this result is in line with the IASB's option of the two formats, it does not support the IASB's preference for a single statement.     

towards relevant economic doctrines

In the second of two articles, Sir Alfred Sherman, advisor to Conservative leaders in the 1970s and 1980s and a founder of the Centre for Policy Studies, continues his review of post-war economic policy and calls for a new tableau economique that would identify the contradictions in economic policy.     

Flexible Labour,Firm Performance and the Dutch Job Creation Miracle

Unlike internal (‘functional’) forms of flexibility of labour, external (‘numerical’) forms of flexibility (i.e. high shares of people on temporary contract or a high turnover of personnel) yield substantial savings on a firm’s wage bill. Savings on wage bills lead to higher job growth, but do not translate into higher sales growth. Externally flexible labour appears to be related to lower labour productivity growth, the effects being different for innovating vs non‐innovating firms. We discuss these findings from firm‐level and worker‐level data against the background of the Dutch job creation miracle during the 1980s and 1990s. Modest wage increases and flexibilization of labour markets may indeed create lots of jobs. However, this is likely to happen at the expense of labour productivity growth, raising serious doubts about the long‐run sustainability of a low‐productivity–high‐employment growth path.     

Asset Write-Offs—Managerial Incentives and Macroeconomic Factors

The objective of this study is to explain what firm-specific and macroeconomic factors are likely to influence the asset write-off decision in Singapore, where upward revaluations, unlike in the U.S., are also permitted. The focus is on write-offs relating to two main asset categories, namely, fixed assets and long-term investments. Data on seventy-eight firms listed on the Stock Exchange of Singapore Mainboard were collected from 1983 to 1997. Results of cross-sectional and time-series analyses identify relevant macroeconomic factors to be unemployment rate, GDP growth rate and occupancy rate of properties, and firm-specific factors to be profitability and a change of board chairman.     

Principles- versus rules-based accounting standards: the FASB's standard setting strategy

In response to criticism of rules-based accounting standards and Section 108(d) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, the SEC proposed principles-based (or 'objectives-oriented') standards. We identify several shortcomings with this approach and focus on two of them. First, the format (type) of a standard is dependent on the contents of what the standard regulates. Given the asset/liability approach combined with fair values, we argue that the combination of this measurement concept with principles-based standards is inconsistent because it requires significant guidance for management judgment. Second, we propose the inclusion of a true-and-fair override as a necessary requirement for any format that is more than 'principles-only' to deal with inconsistencies between principles and guidance. We discuss the benefits of this override and present evidence from the United Kingdom's experience.     

Human capital formation and public debt: growth and welfare effects of three different deficit policies

We analyze an endogenous growth model public educational spending. We show that the balanced budget policy and the policy with a slight deficit yield higher growth than a debt policy where public debt grows at the same rate as GDP, unless the government is a creditor. As concerns welfare, it can be demonstrated that a strong deficit policy yields lower welfare than a balanced budget and a slight deficit policy, unless initial debt ratios are low and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is high. Finally, there may exist an inverted U-shaped relation between welfare and deficit-financed educational spending.