Persistence of volatility in futures markets

This article examines the characteristics of key measures of volatility for different types of futures contracts to provide a better foundation for modeling volatility behavior and derivative values. Particular attention is focused on analyzing how different measures of volatility affect volatility persistence relationships. Intraday realized measures of volatility are found to be more persistent than daily measures, the type of GARCH procedure used for conditional volatility analysis is critical, and realized volatility persistence is not coherent with conditional volatility persistence. Specifically, although there is a good fit between the realized and conditional volatilities, no coherence exists between their degrees of persistence, a counterintuitive finding that shows realized and conditional volatility measures are not a substitute for one another. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:571–594, 2006     

A remark on the existence of equilibria in markets without ordered preferences and with a Riesz space of commodities

We show the existence of competitive equilibria in economies without ordered preferences and a Hausdorff locally convex solid Riesz space of commodities. Our principal assumptions are that the commodity space has a predual and that its positive cone has a non-empty interior.     

Constrained mixture distributions

The problem of estimating the weights associated with mixture distributions subject to several constraints, such as the percentile and/or moment constraints, is analyzed using the general theory of polyhedral convex cones and systems of inequalities. We address three problems associated with constrained mixture distributions: (a) Compatibility: a set of inequalities is obtained to check whether or not any given set of constraints lead to a feasible solution for the weights, (b) Feasible solutions: a general expression for building feasible solutions for the weights associated with the given constraints is obtained, and (c) Equivalence: the set of all feasible weights is obtained. In addition, the problem is shown to lead to a new mixture distribution, without extra constraints. This new mixture distribution can then be easily used for the statistical analysis (e.g. estimation and hypotheses testing) instead of the original mixture distribution with extra constraints. The proposed methods are illustrated by numerical examples.     

Detecting break in oil price series using the Box-Tiao method

This paper presents an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average procedure which allows one to test a time series for a structural break at an unknown point in time. It is a variation of the Box-Tiao method designed to test for a structural break due to an intervention at a known time. Applying the procedure to the crude oil market, we were able to statistically show the existence of a structural break in the oil price series and to pinpoint the month during which it took place, January 1986. The results also underscore the need for testing the stability of models estimated using oil price data covering both sides of the structural break and may assist those who study the political events of the period.     

Dynamic products in world exports

The values of three product categories have grown most rapidly in world exports during the period 1980–2000: electrical and electronic goods (including parts and components for such goods), goods from other technology-intensive industries, and labour-intensive products, particularly clothing. A strong geographical concentration at both regional and country levels is discernable regarding the origin of these products from developing countries. There appears to be a sustained movement in world exports towards the growing significance of a limited number of products and it would seem that there has been a rapid and sustained technological upgrading in the export composition of developing countries. However, since the involvement of developing countries is usually limited to the labour-intensive stages in the production process of technology-intensive goods in the context of international production sharing, simple measures of growth in gross export values are poor guides for an assessment of the nature of participation of developing countries in world trade.     

The Relationship of Pari-mutuel Wagering and Casino Gaming to Personal Bankruptcy

In this article, the relationship of the availability of pari-mutuel wagering and casino gaming opportunities to personal (nonbusiness) bankruptcy filings is investigated. An econometric model was developed relating the number of personal bankruptcies to sociodemographic, legal, and economic factors. In addition, a unique measure of access to casino and pari-mutuel gaming was included. Population, personal income, age, race, divorce rate, unemployment rate, and the ratio of debt to disposable personal income were found to be significant determinants of personal bankruptcies. Access to pari-mutuel or casino gaming facilities was found not to have a significant impact on personal bankruptcies. (JEL K1 , K4 , D1 , L83 )