The financial systems approach to development finance: Origin,evolution and prospects

This article focuses on the prospects of the financial systems approach to development finance to ensure sustainable access to financial services for microentrepreneurs. It discusses three prerequisites for the success of this approach: the continued application of financial liberalisation policies; the delivery of financial services on a commercially viable basis by emulating the successes of informal financial intermediaries in solving the problems normally experienced by the formal financial sector when serving microentrepreneurs; and the continued appropriate support from governments and the donor community. It is postulated that these prerequisites will be fulfilled, making the author cautiously optimistic that the financial systems approach to development finance will succeed in securing sustainable access to financial services for microentrepreneurs in the 21st century.     

Econometric software development: past, present and future

We give a short international history of econometric software development, with an emphasis on the origin of the main existing econometric packages. We provide a Dutch perspective on this development. We identify the characteristics of econometric software in comparison with mathematical and statistical software. Finally, a number of recent developments connected with the reuse of code across econometric softwares are discussed.     

Aligning Misaligned Systemic Innovations: Probing Inter‐Firm Effects Development in Project Networks

Implementing systemic innovations in a project network can significantly improve its performance; however, implementing systemic innovations is difficult if project network structures misalign to the innovation. Little research has examined how project network structures can align to systemic innovations. To address this research gap, we studied an advanced building information modeling tool implemented in a Finnish design and development project network. We found that misaligned innovations are aligned through a process of task sequence alignment, knowledge base alignment, and work allocation alignment. Our findings are important; they suggest that implementing systemic innovations in project networks is a multistage inter‐firm process.     

The price of variance risk

Between 1996 and 2014, it was costless on average to hedge news about future variance at horizons ranging from 1 quarter to 14 years. Only unexpected, transitory realized variance was significantly priced. These results present a challenge to many structural models of the variance risk premium, such as the intertemporal CAPM and recent models with Epstein–Zin preferences and long-run risks. The results are also difficult to reconcile with macro models in which volatility affects investment decisions. At the same time, the data allows us to distinguish between different disaster models; a model in which the stock market has a time-varying exposure to disasters and investors have power utility fits the major features of the variance term structure.     

A test of trade theories when expenditure is home biased

We develop a criterion to distinguish two dominant paradigms of international trade theory: homogeneous-goods perfectly competitive models, and differentiated-goods monopolistically competitive models. Our analysis makes use of the pervasive presence of home-biased expenditure. It predicts that countries’ relative output and their relative home biases are positively correlated in differentiated-goods sectors (the “home-bias effect”), while no such relationship exists in homogeneous-goods sectors. This discriminating criterion turns out to be robust to a number of generalisations of the baseline model. Our empirical results, based on a world-wide cross-country data set, suggest that the differentiated-goods model fits particularly well for the machinery, precision engineering and transport equipment industries, which account for some 40% of sample manufacturing output.     

Digital Boundary Objects as Negotiation Facilitators: Spanning Boundaries in Virtual Engineering Project Networks

Advances in electronic communication tools have enabled collaborative engineering work to be conducted in virtual project networks that utilize “digital boundary objects” to exchange complex design knowledge. However, little is known about whether and how digital boundary objects facilitate negotiations in virtual settings that feature real‐time communication. This article addresses this gap by exploring the role of digital boundary objects in negotiating complex design knowledge in a three‐dimensional (3‐D) virtual workspace. The authors found that digital boundary objects facilitate negotiations through a three‐stage process of structuring negotiation space, structuring knowledge in the structured negotiation space, and framing combinations of structured knowledge.     

Estimating systematic continuous-time trends in recidivism using a non-Gaussian panel data model

We model panel data of crime careers of juveniles from a Dutch Judicial Juvenile Institution. The data are decomposed into a systematic and an individual-specific component, of which the systematic component reflects the general time-varying conditions including the criminological climate. Within a model-based analysis, we treat (1) shared effects of each group with the same systematic conditions, (2) strongly non-Gaussian features of the individual time series, (3) unobserved common systematic conditions, (4) changing recidivism probabilities in continuous time and (5) missing observations. We adopt a non-Gaussian multivariate state-space model that deals with all these issues simultaneously. The parameters of the model are estimated by Monte Carlo maximum likelihood methods. This paper illustrates the methods empirically. We compare continuous time trends and standard discrete-time stochastic trend specifications. We find interesting common time variation in the recidivism behaviour of the juveniles during a period of 13 years, while taking account of significant heterogeneity determined by personality characteristics and initial crime records.     

The transformation of the German vocational training regime: evidence from firms’ training behaviour

The German system of industrial relations has undergone significant changes in the last decade. This article reflects on and provides empirical evidence for how these changes have affected the training behaviour of firms. Conventional perspectives would predict a general decline in training investment when the constraints of collective wage bargaining are loosened. Relying on a large data set on the costs and benefits of apprenticeship training for the years 2000 and 2007, we do find evidence for this hypothesis but would add that the strength of the effect varies strongly across different types of firms. Large firms have benefited much more from participating in training than have small firms and have therefore maintained their investment in training because they are able to reduce net costs by expanding the productive contributions of apprentices. This finding may help to explain the apparent resilience of the German training system in the recent economic and financial crisis.     

The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach

This paper assesses the impact of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa using a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR), estimated using a large data set comprising of 246 quarterly series over the period 1980:01 to 2006:04. The results based on the impulse response functions indicate that, in general, house price inflation responds negatively to monetary policy shock, but the responses are heterogeneous across the middle-, luxury- and affordable-segments of the housing market. The luxury-, large-middle- and medium-middle-segments are found to respond much more than the small-middle- and the affordable-segments of the housing market. More importantly, we find no evidence of the home price puzzle, observed previously by other studies that analyzed house prices using small-scale models. We put this down to the benefit gained from using a large information set.