Combining mean reversion and momentum trading strategies in foreign exchange markets

The literature on equity markets documents the existence of mean reversion and momentum phenomena. Researchers in foreign exchange markets find that foreign exchange rates also display behaviors akin to momentum and mean reversion. This paper implements a trading strategy combining mean reversion and momentum in foreign exchange markets. The strategy was originally designed for equity markets, but it also generates abnormal returns when applied to uncovered interest parity deviations for five countries. I find that the pattern for the positions thus created in the foreign exchange markets is qualitatively similar to that found in the equity markets. Quantitatively, this strategy performs better in foreign exchange markets than in equity markets. Also, it outperforms traditional foreign exchange trading strategies, such as carry trades and moving average rules.     

Truthfulness in Accounting: How to Discriminate Accounting Manipulators from Non-manipulators

Accountants preparing information are in a position to manipulate the view of economic reality presented in such information to interested parties. These manipulations can be regarded as morally reprehensible because they are not fair to users, they involve in an unjust exercise of power, and they tend to weaken the authority of accounting regulators. This paper develops a model for detecting earnings manipulators using financial statements’ ratios in a sample of Spanish listed companies. Our results provide evidence that accounting data can be extremely useful in detecting manipulators. This approach can be used by a large category of users of accounting information among which we can cite stock exchange supervisors or investing professionals.     

Educational qualifications mismatch in Europe. Is it demand or supply driven?

Most papers dealing with individual overeducation risks focus on labour supply characteristics and workers’ behaviour. On the other hand, only few studies consider labour demand characteristics and technological change. In this paper we analyse the influence of both demand and supply factors on educational mismatch in a set of 10 European countries. Our hypothesis, confirmed by results obtained using ordered probit model with sample selection, is that demand factors generally play a major role in reducing educational mismatch in technologically more advanced countries, whereas supply factors are more important in countries that are lagging behind in the international division of labour. At the same time, important cross-country and gender differences have been identified in how the demand/supply factors operate. All this calls for the fine-tuning of policies intended to tackle the problem of educational mismatch.     

Twin Crises in Emerging Markets: The Role of Liability Dollarization and Imperfect Competition in Banking

Currency crises in emerging markets have been accompanied by banking crises, with concentration in the market for bank credit increasing after large devaluations. This paper examines how the presence of imperfect competition and liability dollarization in banking shapes the real effects of the just mentioned twin crises. An important gap in the theoretical literature is filled, by being the first paper to provide a model of twin crises in the presence of imperfect competition in banking, and the changes in market structure that occur in the aftermath of crises. Doing so, the analysis is able to reveal that currency devaluations generate more severe twin crises in economies with less competitive banking sectors. This result is consistent with the empirical evidence on the concentration‐fragility view, and it unveils the importance of prudential regulation that focuses on the market structure in banking.     

Private Hochwasservorsorge und Elementarschadenversicherung

In light of increasing flood damage, private flood mitigation gains more relevance. We investigate empirically whether the uptake of private flood mitigation measures in Germany is affected by (a) the perceived flood insurance coverage, and (b) public information campaigns focussing on flood hazards. We use a novel longitudinal dataset of more than 3200 households and employ a difference-in-differences estimation approach. The results show that households who state a change in their insurance status and report themselves as being insured mitigate more, not less. This contradicts the expectation of moral hazard and suggests that insurance and mitigation are rather seen as complements than substitutes. Moreover, the survey data suggest that many households falsely expect being flood-insured. Public information campaigns show no measurable effect on the flood mitigation behaviour of households, which poses questions about the effectiveness of large-scale information campaigns. In tendency, our results support the idea of compulsory flood insurance.     

Decomposition of the Gini Index by Sources of Income

The Gini concentration coefficient is considered to be the best synthetic inequality measure and is widely used in economic research. In this paper, we present its decomposition by factor components with an application to income distributions in Poland. Income inequality measures proposed by Gini, Zenga and Bonferroni are calculated for different socio-economic groups based on their exclusive or primary source of maintenance. For theoretical income distribution, the Dagum type-I model was used. The basis for the calculations was the individual data coming from the Household Budgets Survey conducted quarterly by the Polish Central Statistical Office. Using the decomposition of inequality by source, we were able to examine how changes in particular income components affected overall inequality.      

Idiosyncratic volatility and the cross-section of anomaly returns: is risk your Ally?

Due to arbitrage risk asymmetries, the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns is positive (negative) among overpriced (underpriced) stocks. We offer a new active anomaly-selection strategy that capitalizes on this effect. To this end, we consider 11 equity anomalies in the U.S. market for years 1963–2016. Buying (selling) long (short) legs of the anomaly portfolios with the highest idiosyncratic volatility produces monthly abnormal returns ranging from 0.97% to 1.14% per month, outperforming a naive benchmark that equally weights all the anomalies by 45–70%. The effect cannot be subsumed by any other established anomaly-return predictor, such as momentum or seasonality. The results are robust to many considerations, including different numbers of anomalies in the portfolios, subperiod analysis, as well as estimation of idiosyncratic risk from the alternative models and throughout different periods.     

Measuring the effects of geographical distance on stock market correlation

Recent studies suggest that the correlation of stock returns increases with decreasing geographical distance. However, there is some debate on the appropriate methodology for measuring the effects of distance on correlation. We modify a regression approach suggested in the literature and complement it with an approach from spatial statistics, the mark correlation function. For the stocks contained in the S&P 500 that we examine, both approaches lead to similar results. Contrary to previous studies we find that beyond 50 miles geographical proximity is irrelevant for stock return correlations. For distances below 50 miles, we can show that the magnitude of local correlations varies with investor sentiment.     

Income inequality analysis in the period of economic transformation in poland

This paper presents some statistical methods of income inequality analysis based on the theoretical income distribution models that are well-fitted to the empirical models. As theoretical curves, the lognormal, gamma, Burr Type XII, and the Dagum models were used. They were applied to the earnings distributions in Poland in the period of economic transformation from a centrally-planned to a market economy. On the basis of the Dagum model, showing the perfect consistency with the considered earnings distributions, the maximun likelihood estimators of inequality parameters and economic distance ratios between men and women were calculated.