Variable reduction,sample selection bias and bank retail credit scoring

This paper investigates the effect of including the customer loan approval process to the estimation of loan performance and explores the influence of sample selection bias in predicting the probability of default. The bootstrap variable reduction technique is applied to reduce the variable dimension for a large data-set drawn from a major UK retail bank. The results show a statistically significant correlation between the loan approval and performance processes. We further demonstrate an economically significant improvement in forecasting performance when taking into account sample selection bias. We conclude that financial institutions can obtain benefits by correcting for sample selection bias in their credit scoring models.     

Relationship-Oriented Cultures, Corruption, and International Marketing Success

This study explores the general problems associated with marketing across international markets and focuses specifically on the role of corruption in deterring international marketing success. The authors do this by introducing a broader conceptualization of corruption. The dimensions of corruption and their importance in explaining the exporters’ successes in international markets are developed empirically. Partial Least Squares formative indicators are used in a comprehensive model including consumer resources (wealth and information resources), physical distance (kilometers and time zones), and cultural distance (linguistic and values differences) as alternative explanatory variables. Finally, differences in the model’s performance across data from three exporting countries (France, Japan, and the US) are delineated and discussed. For example, the successes of French and Japanese exporters in international markets are in part determined by the levels of corruption in target countries. Alternatively, corruption in target countries does not appear to affect the successes of American exporters in global markets. The conceptualization of corruption in this study extends the more narrow view of corruption solely as bribery.     

The transfer of Tax Increment Financing (TIF) as an urban policy for spatially targeted economic development

Urban policy transfer between the US and UK has long been of interest to researchers and practitioners. Given the recent wider context of reduced direct funding and the absence of a coherent regeneration policy, this paper considers the introduction of Tax Increment Financing (TIF) to the UK as a method of stimulating spatially targeted economic development initiatives. The paper explores whether TIF could be considered a form of policy transfer, and in doing so uncovers whether the transfer of TIF could – (a) be successful and unsuccessful under certain circumstances; (b) require the actions of certain stakeholders; and (c) be enabled via prescribed frameworks and negotiation. The results are evidenced using qualitative approaches and find that TIF is more of a modified policy ‘idea’ rather than transfer. Further discussion argues that TIF can be successful, if it considers flexible but local elements and has the capacity to balance stakeholders for development brokerage.     

The explanatory power of trading volume and insider activity in a pari-mutuel betting market

In this paper, we examine the role played by the holders of privileged information (insiders) in stimulating trading volume which adds explanatory power to a price-based model of returns in a market where the actions of insiders can be isolated – a pari-mutuel betting market. We conduct conditional logit analyses based on data relating to 19,164 horses running in 2078 races (49 racetracks) staged across the UK between 1 June and 31 August 1996. These analyses indicate that prices generally fail to incorporate fully information contained in trading volumes. However, the betting public fully discounts volume information in markets most commonly viewed as attracting bets from insiders. Isolation of the actual degree of insider activity sheds light on the variation in volume effects.     

An Inventory Evaluation Approach for Common Use Stock Range Units in British Columbia

Beef ranchers in British Columbia rely upon Crown range for a large proportion of their summer and fall grazing needs. Any improvement in the management policies for this resource can enhance the economic viability of the beef sector. The objective of this study is to evaluate the stocking levels of stock ranges administered by range agrologists and to compare their assessment with that derived using a more formal planning procedure. The report details the stocking capacity for the Punchaw Stock Range in the Prince George range district. Capacities for other stock ranges are also estimated. When rotational uses are defined and examined, the optimal use pattern results in carrying capacities that are approximately double that of current or recommended stocking levels. Les producteurs de bovins de Colombie-Britannique dépendent des parcours de la Couronne pourune grande partie de leurs besoins en pâturages ?été et ?automne. Toute amélioration des politiques de gestion de cette ressource risque ?avoir un effet salutaire sur la viabilité économique du secteur des bovins. La présente étude avait pour objectif ?évaluer ?intensity de pâturage sur les parcours gérés par des agronomes et de comparer leur évaluation à celle obtenue au moyen ?une méthode de planification répondant à des critères plus officiels. Nous fournissons des données détaillées sur la capacité de charge correspondant du parcours Punchaw, dans le district Prince George. Nous procédons en outre à ?évaluation de la capacité de charge ?autres parcours. Lorsque ?exploitation en rotation est définie et examinée, le calcul de ?utilisation optimale donne une capacité de charge correspondant approximativement au double des valeurs actuelles ou recommandées.     

The demography of micro-states

There are two types of micro-states, islands and mainland ones. Except for a few islands very close to the coast, most of the insular micro-states are demographically very different from the rest of the Third World. Their death-rates are lower, their birth-rates lower, and the propensity of their populations to migrate to developed countries higher. It is argued here that these differences are based on other social and economic differences, which can be summarized by saying that such states are more Westernized. They were part of the European maritime system at a time when the West did not have the economic strength to penetrate continental areas to the same extent. On the whole they retained colonial links longer.     

The leader as lobbyist

Guidant's Ginger Graham argues that senior executives are actually better prepared than most lobbyists to inform and educate members of Congress about the issues that will affect their businesses.     

New technology and the urban environment

Technology has always had an influence on the form of settlements, but only since the coming of Information Technology has it aroused much interest from academics and planners. The impact that IT is likely to have on urban areas is debated, some foreseeing decentralisation and the end of place, while others see evidence of the centralisation of control in a global economy. Other new technologies may also affect cities as new materials provide the opportunity for different styles of building. As we enter the 21st century, however, we do so with the largest stock of urban capital ever, much of which is ageing and in need of maintenance. Technology is part of a complex interrelationship of influences on urban areas and much of it will have to be retrofitted on to the pre-existing environment.