Revisiting dividend yield dynamics and returns predictability: Evidence from a time-varying ESTR model

Since the bubble of the late 1990s the dividend yield appears non-stationary indicating the breakdown of the equilibrium relationship between prices and dividends. Two lines of research have developed in order to explain this apparent breakdown. First, that the dividend yield is better characterised as a non-linear process and second, that it is subject to mean level shifts. This paper jointly models both of these characteristics by allowing non-linear reversion to a changing mean level. Results support stationarity of this model for eight international dividend yield series. This model is than applied to the forecast of monthly stock returns. Evidence supports our time-varying non-linear model over linear alternatives, particularly so on the basis of an out-of-sample R-squared measure and a trading rule exercise. More detailed examination of the trading rule measure suggests that investors could obtain positive returns, as the model forecasts do not imply excessive trading such that costs would not outweigh returns. Finally, the superior performance of the non-linear model largely arises from its ability to forecast negative returns, whereas linear models are unable to do.     

Processes and structures of networks: reflections on methodology

While social capital has been applied in a variety of contexts, the nature, role and application of social capital in an entrepreneurial context have not been extensively explored. The nature of social capital presents a conceptual puzzle in that it is said to be both glue, which forms the structure of networks, and at the same time a lubricant that facilitates the operation of networks. Using techniques of participant observation and interviews, this paper attempts to resolve this enigma. It finds that social capital is not a thing, but a process that creates a condition of social capital. The structural and relational aspects are found to be dimensions of this process. Interestingly, the data also demonstrates that there are successful etiquettes of social capital formation. These etiquettes provide the rules and framework for the interactions.     

Advertising Subsidy and International Oligopolistic Competition

This paper examines the strategic role of advertising subsidies in a third‐country trade model in which two firms located in different countries export their products to a third country. First a basic model of advertising in oligopolistic industries is developed in which firms decide how much to invest in either predatory or cooperative advertising and then engage in product market competition either as Cournot competitors or as Bertrand competitors. It is shown that firms invest in only one form of advertising; which form they invest in depends on the relative effectiveness of the two types of advertising, the degree of product differentiation, and the form of product market competition. The paper then studies strategic industrial policy and shows that an advertising subsidy is the optimal strategic policy irrespective of the form of product market competition and the form of advertising in which firms invest.     

The Role of Attitudes and Objectives in Farmer Decision Making: Business and Environmentally-Oriented Behaviour in Scotland

Despite considerable effort to understand and represent decision making by farmers, there has been little attempt to integrate socio-economic, psychological and farming variables within a comprehensive framework. This paper attempts to do this in the context of two types of farming behaviour - business and environmental -for a sample of over 200 Scottish farmers. Using variables covering their attitudes, objectives and behaviours relevant to many aspects of farming, we proposed mediating variables models of business-oriented and environmentally-oriented farming behaviours. Structural equation modelling was used to test the adequacy of the proposed models. The results of the study emphasise the importance of psychological factors in the decision making of farmers.     

RENT SEEKING CAN PROMOTE THE PROVISION OF PUBLIC GOODS*

Public officials often have little incentive to spend time and effort proposing policies that benefit others. When, however, some public policies generate rents to these officials, rent seeking in politics can motivate them to provide public goods. We consider the motivational effects of rent seeking on (i) policy, (ii) the the role of agenda-setting in social choice theory, (iii) the effects of graft and corruption in government, and (iv) the validity of cost-benefit analysis.     

Firm management of scientific information: Some predictors and implications of openness versus secrecy

This paper presents a model that seeks to understand and explain R&D performance differences in research-intensive companies. The primary theoretical model builds on the well-established theory of science as a public good but augments it with a game-theoretic argument for individual firm choices of scientific information openness or secrecy. The first research question we address is how a firm's scientific information openness, as measured by its research publications, impacts the firm's stock of technical knowledge. Additionally, we explore two predictor variables of scientific information openness: research lab and top management team demographics. The possible economic effects and other managerial implications of this model are also discussed.     

A principal–agent analysis of pension policy

This paper presents a principal-agent model of pension policy in a world with permanent pension plans and no taxes. Firm managers, as agents of stockholders, choose pension policy to maximize their own welfare. Stockholders, aware of this self-interested behavior, select the optimal linear risk-sharing compensation program to induce conformance of manager actions to stockholder intersts. The paper develops the optimal linear risk-sharing compensation program and pension policy. The comparative static changes in pension policy for a simple case are found and compared to the empirical findings of other researchers. It is argued that the principal-agent hypothesis provides an explanation for the heretofore unexplained empirical regularities of those studies.