Empirical likelihood block bootstrapping

Monte Carlo evidence has made it clear that asymptotic tests based on generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation have disappointing size. The problem is exacerbated when the moment conditions are serially correlated. Several block bootstrap techniques have been proposed to correct the problem, including Hall and Horowitz (1996) and Inoue and Shintani (2006). We propose an empirical likelihood block bootstrap procedure to improve inference where models are characterized by nonlinear moment conditions that are serially correlated of possibly infinite order. Combining the ideas of Kitamura (1997) and Brown and Newey (2002), the parameters of a model are initially estimated by GMM which are then used to compute the empirical likelihood probability weights of the blocks of moment conditions. The probability weights serve as the multinomial distribution used in resampling. The first-order asymptotic validity of the proposed procedure is proven, and a series of Monte Carlo experiments show it may improve test sizes over conventional block bootstrapping.     

Takeover activity in Australia: endogenous and exogenous influences

The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25-year period to re-examine the predictability of takeover activity and to determine if there is a flow on impact on macroeconomic variables. We examine whether takeover activity: (i) is endogenous; that is, determined by own activity; (ii) is jointly determined by macroeconomic and capital market variables; and (iii) has an exogenous spillover impact across the economy. We find that stock prices and takeover activity share a long-term common trend, the relative success of takeover bids is independent of sharemarket activity, and conclude that aggregate takeover activity is driven by fundamental economic factors rather than by speculative activity.     

A MODEL OF NEW ZEALAND APPLE SUPPLY RESPONSE TO TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE*

A supply response model for New Zealand apples is specified and equations for new plantings, removals, yields and adoption of an innovation are estimated. The model expands on perennial crop models previously estimated by incorporating the time pattern of adoption of a planting innovation and formulation of a measure of yield expectations given technological change.     

Money and economic activity,inventories and business cycles

Incomplete information is a necessary condition for any real effects produced by monetary impulses. An alternative to the local-global inference problem is explored in this paper. Agents are confronted with permanent and transitory shocks. Even with full knowledge about the stochastic structure their best perception at any particular time will usually be erroneous. Prices for each period are set at the beginning of the period on the basis of market conditions. The realization of the shock process thus creates a short-run ‘disequilibrium’ absorbed by inventory adjustments. This adjustment translates perceived transitory monetary shocks into serially correlated output movements. The analysis proceeds within the context of rational expectations It offers a generalization of equilibrium analysis in two respects. Prices are always in equilibrium relative to perceived conditions, but they do not reflect all ongoing shocks. Quantity adjustments reflect the perceived transitory shocks. The framework used involves moreover a stock-flow interaction operated by inventory adjustments. The stock-flow interaction imposes at any time a future expected adjustment path (for price-level and quantities) to the system's unique stock equilibrium. A major implication of the analysis resolves a puzzle experienced in a recent paper by Robert Hall. It reconciles intertemporal substitution with lagged effects of monetary impulses. It also reconciles small and inconclusive cyclic movements in real wages with the occurrence of production function and large variations in unemployment. Lastly, the nature of the inference problem determined by the pattern of incomplete information produces serially correlated movements conditioned on large permanent shocks.     

CAPITAL BUDGETING,INTERTEMPORAL PROGRAMMING MODELS,WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO AGRICULTURE

Investment decision processes typically involve the selection of projects, the timing of their initiation and the determination of the amount to be invested in each time period. A linear programming model considered appropriate for solving such models is described, in which the multi-dimensional criterion function is expressed as a linear combination of the appropriately-weighted objectives. An empirical application is then discussed, the objectives of the firm being the maximization of tax-free cash and assets on hand at the end of the planning period. Finally, the appropriate length of the planning horizon, and some approaches to capital budgeting under non-certainty, are discussed.     

Agricultural development in Southern Africa: Theory,lessons and the food crisis in Africa

In this paper a household economics theory of farm‐household production in the Southern African context is presented which (a) places a new interpretation on the causes of low productivity per person and unit of land in the African farming sector, (b) demonstrates that even where improved food crop technology is widely adopted it may have a very limited impact on marketed production, and (c) contributes to an understanding of why Africa's food production per person continues to fall despite per capita aid inflows which have exceeded those for any other continent over the last decade.     

THE INFLATION ADJUSTMENT OF CORPORATE ACCOUNTS: THE CASE OF MONETARY ITEMS

This paper investigates the sensitivity of the computed loss from holding monetary items to alternative numerical estimating techniques. Using data from 38 companies for the fiscal year 1980-81, we find that estimation of the loss from holding monetary items is robust with respect to the calculating technique utilized, provided the monetary base is broadly defined. The implications of this for “market model” type studies of the impact of inflation adjustments are discussed.