Strategic planning of complex economic systems ∗

A major drawback of conventional models of the behavior of economic systems (and derived tools for policy intervention) is that the desire for tractability leads generally to a high degree of abstraction from reality. This article suggests an alternative, and arguably complementary, approach which engages specifically with economic complexity. The technique used is one of interactive spatial modelling over long time periods where the principle economic agents base decisions on incomplete heuristic information. For illustrative purposes the model has been calibrated on the basis of Senegalese data for 1981–91 and broad generic equations presented. The article argues that such a methodological approach holds out considerable advantages for strategic planning of sustainable economic systems. In particular it permits the direct engagement of noneconomic disciplines and client stakeholders in the planning process.     

Confounding and collinearity in regression analysis: a cautionary tale and an alternative procedure,illustrated by studies of British voting behaviour

Quality & Quantity - Many ecological- and individual-level analyses of voting behaviour use multiple regressions with a considerable number of independent variables but few discussions of their...     

Reward design and CEO succession in the UK

Previous research has shown that top executives often rise to the peak of their organizations after a long-term employment relationship, and that internal promotion to the top is reflected in enhanced baseline salaries. Using data from a representative sample of UK companies, the links between the fixed and variable elements of the Chief Executive Officer's compensation package are examined and whether the appointment has been promoted internally or recruited from outside of the company. From this analysis, it is concluded that the positive impact on basic pay of elevation to the top job from within the company is not present in total compensation or the structure of pay. It also emerges that although tenure does not significantly impact on the structure of pay, it does alter total reward through its impact on the value of options granted: longer company tenure reduces both the award of share options and the total value of the remuneration package; job tenure, on the other hand, raises the executive's reward primarily through its positive impact on baseline salary. Though share ownership reduces the performance sensitivity of earnings, increases in baseline salary are reflected in greater exposure to the use of share options.     

Complexity and the limits to learning

In this paper we look at the manner in which ideas coming from complexity science change our understanding of the cognitive powers of agents that is really necessary to explain the evolution of markets and of firms. The general ideas behind complex systems dynamics and evolution are presented and then two examples are treated in detail. The first in an evolutionary model of a market in which some new product is developed by competing firms and their “task” is to find a strategy in terms of quality and price that will be sustainable. This essentially requires agents/firms to discover mutually compatible strategies, and to create thereby sustainable market niches. The second example considers the internal structure of firms, in terms of their constituent working practices and skills. It demonstrates that it is precisely their ignorance of the consequences of adopting any particular practice that generates diversity in the emergent capabilities of firms, exploring the dimension of potential demand and therefore leading to a successful and sustainable business sector. The work supports the notion that the cognitive abilities that are involved are not about deduction and logic, as a traditional view of rationality might suggest, but are about the development and contraction of interpretive frameworks, which will be different for each player. The paper links these examples to a general recognition of the idea that complex, multi-agent systems evolve through successive “structural attractors”—multi-dimensional dynamical systems—with temporary structural stability. Because real systems contain both the structure and deviations from it, then there is a constant probing of structural stability and the possibility of qualitative change to a new structural attractor. This resembles the ideas in biological evolution related to “punctuated equilibria,” but it also links this to the idea of emergent and evolving networks of interaction, never of course near thermodynamic equilibrium.      

A capital adequacy buffer model

We develop a new capital adequacy buffer model (CABM) that is sensitive to dynamic economic circumstances. The model, which measures additional bank capital required to compensate for fluctuating credit risk, is a novel combination of the Merton structural model, which measures distance to default and the timeless capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which measures additional returns to compensate for additional share price risk. We apply the model to a portfolio of mid-cap loan assets over a 10-year period that includes pre-GFC (global financial crisis), GFC and post-GFC. An analysis of actual defaults over this period shows the model to be far more accurate in determining the capital adequacy levels needed to counter credit risk than an unresponsive ratings model such as the Basel standardized approach.     

The first Sterling Area†

Between the eleventh century and mid‐thirteenth century a Sterling Area evolved in the British Isles, with a common currency based upon the English silver penny and equivalents of it produced in Scotland and Ireland. This Sterling Area began to contract in the second half of the fourteenth century, when reductions in the bullion content of Scottish coins ended the equivalence of the English and Scottish currencies, and in the fifteenth century Ireland developed its own coinage. Estimates of the currency of the Sterling Area are provided, taking the chronology of its growth and contraction into account. Estimates of the sterling currency are not estimates of the currency of England, and they cannot be combined with data relating exclusively to England in economic modelling, without qualification. Per capita currency estimates and values of coin hoards and single coin finds are at a high level around 1400, falling in the second half of the fifteenth century, indicating that the European ‘bullion famine’ of the 1390s to c. 1415 had less effect on the currency than the second late medieval bullion crisis, from the 1430s to the 1460s.     

Modeling ethical attitudes and behaviors under conditions of environmental turbulence: The case of South Africa

This study explores the impact of environmental turbulence on relationships between personal and organizational characteristics, personal values, ethical perceptions, and behavioral intentions. A causal model is tested using data obtained from a national sample of marketing research professionals in South Africa. The findings suggest turbulent conditions lead professionals to report stronger values and ethical norms, but less ethical behavioral intentions. Implications are drawn for organizations confronting growing turbulence in their external environments. A number of suggestions are made for ongoing research. Michael H. Morris became the Fletcher Jones Chair in Entrepreneurship at the University of the Pacific, Stockton, CA in 1993. He received his Ph.D. in Marketing. He is the author of two books and over forty articles in academic journals, including the Journal of International Business Studies, the Journal of Business Research, the Journal of Management, and the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science. Dr. Morris' principal research interests include entrepreneurial behavior, industrial marketing strategy, and pricing.Amy Seidel Marks has been a Senior Lecturer in Marketing at the GSB UCT since 1989. She holds a Ph.D. in Marketing from the Kellogg Graduate School of Management, and has worked in the areas of consumer behavior analysis and social marketing for 20 years. During her time in South Africa she has conducted numerous research projects in areas such as AIDS prevention, tobacco control and iodine deficiency, and has also served as a consultant to national projects in tuberculosis drug compliance, tobacco control and adult education.Jeff Allen received his doctorate from the University of Kentucky. He is currently an Assistant Professor of Marketing at the University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, Dr. Allen has published in various national and international academic journals on topics of social responsibility, marketing ethics, and health care marketing. Newman S. Perry, Jr. is Professor of Management, School of Business and Public Administration at the University of the Pacific in Stockton California. He has just completed Business, Government, and Society: Managing Competitiveness, Ethics, and Social Issues published by Prentice-Hall and previously coauthored a book on strategic management.     

A Transaction Cost Primer on Farm Organization

Agricultural economists, with their knowledge of farming, are well positioned to take advantage of the fertile ground of economic organization. The transaction cost paradigm is particularly useful in addressing such questions and is outlined in this paper. The overriding theme in the transaction cost approach is that patterns of ownership and contracts are chosen to mitigate transaction costs, which result from attempts to establish and maintain property rights. In agriculture, transaction costs are heavily influenced by Mother Nature. Nature's uncertainty, via weather and pests, leads to moral hazard and seasonal forces impose constraints on production cycles that are not often found in the production of most other commodities. Applications in land contracts, asset control, and business organization are discussed.