The Stability of the Demand for Money in Monetary Unions: Some Empirical Evidence from WAEMU

Previous studies of the stability of the demand for money have been largely conducted in the context of individual countries. To the extent that these countries have control over their monetary policies, such an approach is well justified. However, for monetary unions, where the control over monetary policy is usually vested in a central or outside authority, it is more appropriate to examine the stability of the money demand for the union as a collective entity. This paper follows this approach with respect to a West African monetary union, the WAEMU, whose monetary policies are largely dictated by the French authorities. Using cointegration theory and CUSUM stability tests, we find evidence that the demand for broad money is stable in this union. Given the empirical results, the paper draws inferences regarding their implications for the formulation of optimal monetary policy for the WAEMU.     

Capital mobility and foreign debt sustainabilty: some evidence from Turkey

This paper address the extent of capital mobility and foreign debt sustainability in Turkey over the 1962–2003 period by examining the relationship between saving and investment, and imports and exports, respectively. The empirical investment is based on cointegration, error correction models, and threshold and momentum threshold autoregressive models. Our findings are consistent with the existence of capital mobility and the ‘Strong’ form of foreign debt sustainability.     

城市创新文化建设的国际比较分析

以东京、巴塞罗那和曼彻斯特三个典型的创新型城市为对象,从环境条件(可视层)、制度行为(制度层)和价值理念(精神层)三个层面对其城市创新文化建设进行了比较分析。得出对我国创新型城市创新文化建设的启示:从传统文化中汲取养分,倡导创新观念、营造创新氛围;规划文化发展,整合创新资源,培养、引进各类优秀人才;完善创新机制,激发创新活力。     

Deregulation of the Australian Wheat Export Market: What Happened to Wheat Prices?

ABSTRACT

This report investigates whether deregulation of the Australian wheat export market induced a structural change in the price data generation process. We analyze the unit root properties of Western Australian wheat price series by testing for the possibility of single and double structural breaks. Daily spot prices for the period of May 20, 2003, to September 14, 2010 are used. We find the wheat price series has a unit root with two structural breaks but neither breaks coincides with the time when the Wheat Export Marketing Act 2008 came into effect on July 1, 2008. The implication of our results is that deregulation was not the main cause of structural breaks in the price series in the sample period.     

Global estimates of growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle: evidence from World Bank’s classification countries

This study extended the concept of ‘growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle’ by using the principle component approach which allows us to composite different poverty and inequality indicators into one single index that contains most of the useful information from the original dataset. Using the idea of GIP triangle, this study examines the long-run relationship among weighted poverty index (which comprises headcount ratio, poverty gap and squared poverty gap); weighted inequality index (i.e., Watts Index, Gini Index and MLD Index) and average monthly per capita income in the designated 138 countries according to World Bank’s classification over a period of 2005–2010. The data set mainly contain countries’ unit record household survey at least one which is conducted between the countries during the sample period. The regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and income inequality on poverty reflects that income inequality increases poverty while economic growth decreases poverty. It indicates that the impact of inequality in increasing poverty is a somewhat greater than that of growth in average income in reducing overall poverty in a sample countries. The other regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and poverty on income inequality showed that the poverty itself is also likely to be a barrier for poverty reduction; and inequality seems to predict lower future growth rates. The final regression model depicting the impact of poverty and income inequality on mean income of the household suggests that poverty itself reduces mean income of the household while income inequality increases economic growth. The results are interesting and simply suggest that whenever social institutions malfunction, the incidence of damage would usually be distributed unevenly over the society’s members.     

Measuring health expenditures and outcomes in saarc region: health is a luxury?

The objective of the study is to investigate the link between health care expenditures (HCE), economic growth and health outcomes (i.e., life expectancy (LE), infant mortality and the share of elderly people) for a panel of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries; namely, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka; over the period of 1995–2010. The developed panel cointegration technique is employed for analysis of short and long-run relationship between the variables. The results of panel cointegration found that there is a long-run relationship between health expenditures, economic growth and health outcomes in SAARC region. The estimated results indicate that both, LE and share of elderly people in population have a negative relationship related to the HCEs which signifies that HCEs are luxury goods in SAARC countries. The burden of aging population can be lowered by provision of quality health services and utilization of their experience and knowledge in dynamics of economic development forecasting. Furthermore, there is no significant relationship found between infant mortality rate (IMR) and HCEs which implies that HCEs do not provide sufficient benefits to reduce infant mortality. Similarly, HCEs are not enough in generating GDP, lowering IMR and increasing LE in SAARC region. The implementation of appropriate tax reform, stable food prices and trade promotion for low transaction cost medical equipment is required for the SAARC region.     

Bayesian and Bühlmann credibility for phase-type distributions with a univariate risk parameter

Credibility theory is a statistical tool to calculate the premium for the next period based on past claims experience and the manual rate. Each contract is characterized by a risk parameter. A phase-type (or PH) random variable, which is defined as the time until absorption in a continuous-time Markov chain, is fully characterized by two sets of parameters from that Markov chain: the initial probability vector and transition intensity matrix. In this article, we identify an interpretable univariate risk parameter from amongst the many candidate parameters, by means of uniformization. The resulting density form is then expressed as an infinite mixture of Erlang distributions. These results are used to obtain a tractable likelihood function by a recursive formula. Then the best estimator for the next premium, i.e. the Bayesian premium, as well as its approximation by the Bühlmann credibility premium are calculated. Finally, actuarial calculations for the Bühlmann and Bayesian premiums are investigated in the context of a gamma prior, and illustrated by simulated data in a series of examples.     

Splitting Accountability Hairs: Anomalies in the Adaptation of IFRS for SMEs in the UK and Ireland

Abstract

Recent years have witnessed a significant shift in the financial reporting frameworks available in the UK and Ireland affecting entities of all sizes with the Financial Reporting Council issuing three financial reporting standards replacing the extant UK GAAP. This paper reports the results of a content analysis of 151 comment letters sent to the standard-setter in response to its policy proposal. The paper explains why the standard-setter stepped back from its controversial proposal to enforce IFRS for SMEs based on the absence of public accountability. Additionally, the standard-setter addressed all concerns positively apart from two, representing two anomalies. First, despite being opposed by the majority of the respondents, the standard-setter published a new framework for wholly-owned subsidiaries of listed companies allowing them to make substantially less disclosure. Second, the standard-setter is yet to respond to the call by the accounting profession and the Not-for-profit sector to publish a sector-specific framework.     

Big data tools for Islamic financial analysis

Behavioural science states that emotions, principles and the manner of thinking can affect the behaviour of individuals and even investors in their decision making on financial markets. In this paper, we have tried to measure the investor sentiment by three means of big data. The first is based on a search query of a list of words related to Islamic context. The second is inferred from the engagement degree on social media. The last measure of sentiment is built, based on the Twitter API classified into positive and negative directions by a machine learning algorithm based on the naive Bayes method. Then, we investigate whether these sensations and emotions have an impact on the market sentiment and the price fluctuations by means of a vector autoregression model and Granger causality analysis. In the final step, we apply the agent‐based simulation by means of the sequential Monte Carlo method with the control of our Twitter measure on Islamic index returns. We show, then, that the three social media sentiment measures present a remarkable impact on the contemporaneous and lagged returns of the different Islamic assets studied. We also give an estimation of the parameters of the latent variables relative to the agent model studied.