Poverty and Other Determinants of Child Labor in Bangladesh

In this research we examine poverty and other determinants of child labor in Bangladesh. We define income quintiles as a means of measuring family poverty and add child and family characteristics to our model. We estimate the likelihood that a child will work, using separate logistic regression models for younger and older boys and girls in urban and rural areas. Our results support the notion that a family's poverty affects the probability that a child will work; keeping children away from work is a luxury these families cannot afford. Moreover, it is important to examine separate demographic groups in order to fully understand the determinants of child labor in Bangladesh since the effects of child and family variables on the probability that a child will work differ among these groups.     

Airline Travelers' Causal Attribution of Service Failure and Its Impact on Trust and Loyalty Formation: The Moderating Role of Corporate Social Responsibility

This study examines airline travelers' causal attribution (stability and controllability) and its impact on trust and loyalty formation and investigates the moderating role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in this process. Based on a literature review, theoretical relationships between stability, controllability, CSR, trust, and loyalty were derived, and the moderating effects of CSR on relationships between stability/controllability and trust/loyalty were examined. To empirically test these theoretical relationships, quantitative data were collected from 271 airline passengers who experienced a service failure in the past year. The results provide support for effects of stability and controllability on trust as well as the effect of stability on loyalty. In addition, the perception of CSR had positive effects on trust and loyalty. Finally, a favorable CSR perception weakened the negative effects of a service failure on trust and loyalty, particularly when the failure was attributed to a stable cause. The results highlight the important role of CSR in service failure situations and have important implications for airline managers.     

Estimated medical cost reductions associated with use of novel oral anticoagulants vs warfarin in a real-world non-valvular atrial fibrillation patient population

Objective:

Results of randomized clinical trials (RCT) demonstrate that novel oral anticoagulants (NOAC) are effective therapies for reducing the risk of stroke in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Prior medical cost avoidance studies have used warfarin event rates from RCTs, which may differ from patients receiving treatment in a real-world (RW) setting, where the quality of care may not be the same as in a RCT. The purpose of this study was to estimate the change in medical costs related to stroke and major bleeding for each NOAC (apixaban, dabigatran, and rivoraxaban) relative to warfarin in a RW NVAF population.

Methods:

Patients (n?=?23,525) with a diagnosis of NVAF during 2007–2010 were selected from a Medco population of US health plans. Stroke and major bleeding excluding intracranial hemorrhage (MBEIH) events were identified using diagnosis codes on medical claims. RW reference event rates were calculated during periods of warfarin exposure. RW event rates for NOACs were estimated by multiplying the corresponding relative risk (RR) from the RCTs by each reference rate. Absolute risk reductions (ARR) or number of events avoided per patient year were then estimated. Changes in medical costs associated with each NOAC were calculated by applying the ARR to the 1-year cost for each event. Costs for stroke and MBEIH were obtained from the literature. Drug and international normalized ratio monitoring costs were not considered in this analysis.

Results:

Compared to RW warfarin, use of apixaban and dabigatran resulted in total (stroke plus MBEIH) medical cost reductions of $1245 and $555, respectively, during a patient year. Rivaroxaban resulted in a medical cost increase of $144.

Conclusions:

If relative risk reductions demonstrated in RCTs persist in a RW setting, apixaban would confer the greatest medical cost savings vs warfarin, resulting from significantly lower rates of both stroke and MBEIH.     

Quantification of Operational Risk: A Scenario-Based Approach

In this article, I identify challenges to the loss distribution approach in modeling operational risk. I propose a scenario-based methodology for operational risk assessment, which recognizes that each risk can occur under a number of wide-ranging scenarios and that association between risks may behave differently for different scenarios. The model that is developed internally in the company provides a practical quantitative assessment of risk exposure that reflects a deep understanding of the company and its environment, making the risk calculation more responsive to the actual state, ensuring that the company is attending to its key operational risks. In this model qualitative and quantitative approaches are combined to build a loss distribution for individual and aggregate operational risk exposure. The model helps to portray the company's internal control systems and aspects of business environment. These features can help the company increase its operational efficiency, reduce loss from undesirable incidents, and maintain the integrity of internal control.     

Export Sector Dynamics and Domestic Growth: The Case of Colombia

Analyses of Colombian data have generally failed to confirm the hypothesis of export-led growth. This paper generates several measures of export diversification and structural change in exports, and argues that these measures are useful in assessing growth externalities generated by the export sector. In a simultaneous-equations framework, increases in the rate of export structural change are associated with accelerated Colombian GDP growth. Export diversification, by contrast, is not a source of economic growth, and the reduced-form relationship between aggregate lagged export growth and GDP growth is weak.     

A note on reliability properties of k-record statistics

LetY _k,n denote the nth (upper) k-record value of an infinite sequence of independent, identically distributed random variables with common continuous distribution function F. We show that if the nth k-record valueY _k,n has an increasing failure rate (IFR), thenY _l,n (l<k) andY _k+1,n+1(n≤k+1) also have IFR distributions. On the other hand, ifY _k,n has a decreasing failure rate (DFR), thenY _l,n (1>k) has also a DFR distribution. We also present some results concerning log convexity and log concavity ofY _k,n .     

Consumer Preference and Willingness to Pay for a Local Label Attribute in Western Australian Fresh and Processed Food Products

This study investigates Western Australia’s consumer attitudes toward and preferences for locally produced food products signified by a state-funded campaign logo, Buy West Eat Best (BWEB). A choice experiment using both a fresh and a processed food product (skinless chicken breast and fruit yogurt) is conducted to assess willingness to pay for a local production attribute and other label claims. We find that consumer awareness and preference for local foods is high. However, this high preference is not because the product is locally produced but because of the local attributes associated with high-quality products. The study highlights the importance of successfully differentiating products through credible labeling schemes in order to capture market premium.     

Unruly strangers? The 2001 urban riots in Britain

This article examines issues of place and citizenship raised by the riots in summer 2001 in Bradford, Oldham and Burnley, when Asian youths took to the street to protest against the long‐term marginalization and discrimination of working‐class Asians. The article summarizes the forces that triggered the riots, ranging from the activities of the far right and the police to the role of community leaders and the absence of economic opportunity. The thrust of the argument, though, is to argue that the riots should be read in terms of the mature claim of a section of British society for recognition as fully‐fledged citizens of a multi‐ethnic and multicultural society, rather than as claims of ethnic recognition alone. Cet article étudie les problèmes de place et de citoyenneté soulevés par les émeutes de l'été 2001 è Bradford, Oldham et Burnley, quand de jeunes asiatiques sont descendus dans la rue pour protester contre les marginalisation et discrimination constantes de la classe ouvrière asiatique. L'article énumère les forces à l'origine du soulèvement, allant des activités de l'exträme droite et de la police au rôle des leaders des communautés et à l'absence de perspective économique. Toutefois, l'argument essentiel affirme que les émeutes doivent ätre vues en termes de revendication réfléchie d'une partie de la société britannique pour une reconnaissance en tant que citoyens à part entière dans une société multi‐ethnique et multiculturelle, et non comme des exigences de reconnaissance ethnique uniquement.     

On model selection in Bayesian regression

We discuss the problem of constructing a suitable regression model from a nonparametric Bayesian viewpoint. For this purpose, we consider the case when the error terms have symmetric and unimodal densities. By the Khintchine and Shepp theorem, the density of response variable can be written as a scale mixture of uniform densities. The mixing distribution is assumed to have a Dirichlet process prior. We further consider appropriate prior distributions for other parameters as the components of the predictive device. Among the possible submodels, we select the one which has the highest posterior probability. An example is given to illustrate the approach.     

Sustainable development of forest resources in industrialized countries

There is no general consensus about what sustainable development means. We seek to clarify the meaning and utility of the concept by focusing on forest resources in countries possessing higher levels of per capita incomes. The meaning of sustainable development becomes complex when one asks what social goals are being pursued, what types of stability are permitted, whether amenities and commodities should receive equal consideration, and to what landbase the concept should be applied. A simulation/linear programming model of California's private forest resource is used to demonstrate that strict decade-to-decade ‘even-flow’ stability of production may result in lower aggregate levels of output over a prolonged planning period, with ending levels of the stock resource that are scarcely greater than when output is permitted to vary over the planning period. The model was also used to show that greater levels of output and ending stocks are possible when the land base for sustainability assessment is not a restrictively small geographical area or a single class of ownership. In the case of National Forests and other public lands, the application of the sustainable development concept is significantly more complex because of the importance of amenity values and because of the inherent conflict between development and the preservation of ecosystems in a pristine state.