Subsidization of S&Ls under the flat-rate deposit insurance system: Some empirical estimates

This study provides some estimates of the magnitude of the subsidies extracted by S&L holding companies under the present flat-rate deposit insurance system. The results suggest that the flat-rate deposit insurance system induces substantially uneven and inequitable distribution of subsidies among thrift institutions. The analysis of the thrift institutions' asset volatilities over the 1966–1988 period does not support the claim that deregulation of the industry has led to a systematic increase in risk-taking in the industry. On the other hand, we find that a large fraction of the asset volatilities are attributable to firm-specific investment policies and that the risk of the institutions' assets change considerably over time. Taken as a whole, the results suggest that switching to a risk-based deposit insurance system would be economically more efficient than the present scheme. We provide some recommendations for policy changes that can increase the efficacy of risk-based insurance by increasing the level of monitoring by depositors and the financial markets.     

Older age underwriting: frisky vs frail

The speed of the aging process is variable. Some individuals remain exceptionally fit beyond age 90, while others become frail and fragile early. Survival is better predicted by biological age (state of health, status of reserves) rather than chronological age (age in years since date of birth). The frail group shows a higher mortality compared to the robust group. When assessing the elderly in underwriting, it is important to note the usual chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease, COPD, cancer risk, and so on. But because of its strong impact on prognosis, it is also important to assess frailty. Key features of frailty are social isolation, dependency in managing life activities and self-care, cognitive decline, shrinking of bone and muscle mass, and slow weight loss.     

Analyst Earnings Forecast Revisions and the Pricing of Accruals

We investigate the relation between two market anomalies to provide insights into analysts role as information intermediaries. Prior research finds that accruals and analyst earnings forecast revisions predict future returns. We find that the accrual and forecast revision strategies generate hedge returns of 15.5% and 5.5% when implemented independently. Strikingly, a combined strategy that uses forecast revisions to refine the accrual strategy generates a hedge return of 28.5%. Firms with consistent accrual and forecast revision signals have less persistent accruals and earnings. We also find that accruals can be used to refine the forecast revision strategy—high accruals are associated with overoptimism in analyst forecasts. Our findings indicate that although forecast revisions reflect information about accrual and earnings persistence beyond that reflected in the level of current year accruals, investors do not fully incorporate this information into their valuation assessments.     

The Value of Biodiversity in Pharmaceutical Research with Differentiated Products

Biologists and conservation advocates have expressed grave concern over perceived threats to biological diversity. ``Biodiversity prospecting' – the search among naturally occurring organisms for new products of agricultural, industrial, and, particularly, pharmaceutical value – has been advanced as both a mechanism and a motive for conserving biological diversity. Economists and others have attempted to estimate the value of biodiversity for use in new pharmaceutical project research. In this paper we apply a new approach to estimating values: we employ two models of competition among differentiated products. Each model confirms previous findings that the value to private researchers of the ``marginal species' is likely to be small. The models can have very different implications with respect to social values, however. These findings underscore the need for a better understanding of the true meaning of diversity.Resources for the Future     

Research Applications of the Multifamily Housing Institute's Apartment Database

Data on the financial performance of multifamily rental housing has not been available nearly as long as such information for single-family housing. It is believed that this lack of information has increased the cost of debt and equity capital to apartment housing and thus has increased the rents paid by apartment residents. Data on apartments, which is now becoming available through an industry-sponsored initiative, has the potential of narrowing this information gap. This article has several objectives: to describe this new database, AptData^TM, to housing researchers to assess the strengths and weaknesses of AptData^TM for housing market and policy research, to compare estimates from AptData^TM with those from other sources, and to offer several potential research applications of this new data resource.     

Diversity in organizations: Where are we now and where are we going?

A great deal of research has focused on workforce diversity. Despite an increasing number of studies, few consistent conclusions have yet to be reached about the antecedents and outcomes of diversity. Likewise, research on different dimensions of diversity (e.g., age, race, gender, sexual orientation, disability, and culture) has mostly evolved independently. Therefore, the purpose of this review is to examine each of these dimensions of diversity to describe common themes across dimensions and to develop an integrative model of diversity.     

Global recessions as a cascade phenomenon with interacting agents

This paper examines global recessions as a cascade phenomenon. In other words, how recessions arising within one or more countries might percolate across a network of connected economies. An agent based model is set up in which the agents are Western economies. A country has a probability of entering recession in any given year and one of emerging from it the next. In addition, the agents have a threshold propensity, which varies across time, to import a recession from the agents most closely connected to them. The agents are connected on a network, and an agent’s neighbours at any time are either in (state 1) or out (state 0) of recession. If the weighted sum exceeds the threshold, the agent also goes into recession. Annual real GDP growth for 17 Western countries 1871–2006 is used as the data set. The model is able to replicate three key features of the statistical distribution of recessions: the distribution of the number of countries in recession in any given year, the duration of recessions within the individual countries, and the distribution of ‘wait time’ between recessions i.e. the number of years between them. The network structure is important for the interacting agents to replicate the stylised facts. The country-specific probabilities of entering and emerging from recession by themselves give results which are by no means as well matched to the actual data. We are grateful to an anonymous referee for some extremely helpful comments.