ExpertLens: A system for eliciting opinions from a large pool of non-collocated experts with diverse knowledge

The complexity of policy decision-making raises the need to elicit opinions from large and heterogeneous groups of stakeholders with broad and diverse sets of expertise. Existing options for elicitation include small face-to-face panels of experts by using the Nominal Group Technique (NGT), large Delphi panels whose members do not interact with each other face-to-face, and crowdsourcing, which involves an open call for input issued to a large community of people. In an attempt to close the gap between the practical needs of policy makers and the methodological challenges associated with eliciting opinions of large, diverse, and distributed groups, we have developed a new online elicitation system and methodology called ExpertLens. By optimizing the direct interactions of NGT with the larger number of Delphi participants and the wisdom of “selected crowds,” our approach is designed to save on the costs associated with traditional expert panels, while increasing accuracy in elicitation by reducing the potential for group process losses that can occur in large, diverse, and non-collocated panels whose members interact via asynchronous online discussion boards. The ExpertLens approach is iterative, does not require participants to develop consensus, and determines what the group “thinks” by statistically analyzing data collected in all rounds of the elicitation. This paper describes the ExpertLens system and methodology, briefly discusses recent ExpertLens trials, provides conceptual arguments for why it is an appropriate model for eliciting expert opinions, illustrates its main components and analytics by using an infrastructure investment example, and discusses a research agenda for testing the underlying tenets of the ExpertLens approach.     

Welfare Effects of Selected Food-grain Policies in India

Government's policy interventions in the market for food-grains affect supply as well as demand. In this paper, the welfare effects of certain food-grain policies are analysed while taking into account the interdependence of the various sectors in the economy. Adequate structure is built into the model in order to study the effects of a dual price structure on farmers' supply response, and also the effects of public distribution schemes on the aggregate demand for food-grains. Policy implications are derived by computing the market clearing prices and their movement under alternative assumptions regarding the nature of the market.     

Effects of teleconferencing technologies: An exploration of comprehension,feedback, satisfaction and role-related differences

Several theoretical approaches have been put forth to predict and explain the effects of teleconferencing technologies. One approach is to examine the functions of nonverbal signals and to make predictions based on the fact that different teleconferencing technologies allow nonverbal communication to different extents. One of the functions of nonverbal signals is to allow the listener to provide feedback to the speaker in a communication. Prior research has shown that such feedback enhances listener comprehension. In this study, it was hypothesized that different teleconferencing technologies would allow different levels of feedback based on their ability to accommodate nonverbal signals, and this in turn would affect comprehension. An experimental study was conducted to compare comprehension, feedback, and satisfaction in telephone and computer conferencing. The study confirmed that comprehension and speaker satisfaction are related to feedback, but failed to show a relationship between listener satisfaction and feedback. No difference in comprehension, listener, or speaker satisfaction was observed across teleconferencing technologies. Role-related differences were observed between the speaker and the listener. It is suggested that the effects of teleconferencing technologies can be mapped systematically by examining each of the functions of nonverbal signals, one at a time.     

An Investigation of Justice in supply chain relationships and their performance impact

Justice is important in improving performance of supply chain relationships. However, the role of justice in improving performance in supply chain relationships is an under-investigated subject in the literature. In studying the joint impact of justice dimensions, the traditional assumption is that the three forms of justice interact with each other in a multiplicative manner. However, this assumption creates a managerial problem as discussed in this paper. We outline a different view of how the justice dimensions interact with one another utilizing the constraining factor model (CFM). We show that the CFM resolves some of the problems arising from the choice of multiplicative interaction of justice measures on performance. Specifically, we demonstrate that an increase in procedural, distributive or interactional justice results in a significant and positive improvement in performance only if the specific justice dimension is the constraining factor in the relationship. Overall, our analysis suggests that all three dimensions are important and a high level of one of the justice elements will not compensate for a low level of another, a view that is put forward by a number of past research studies in justice. We discuss the theoretical and managerial implications of our findings.     

Deferred Taxes and Bond Ratings: A Canadian Case

This paper explores the usefulness of the current Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants standard on accounting for income taxes in bond rating decisions by credit analysts. Bond rating prediction models using accounting variables generated with alternate treatment of income taxes, have been developed. The analysis indicates that additional information presented by the above standard has not contributed significantly to the bond raters' decision making process.     

So,how long have you been in the market? The effect of the timing of observation on purchase

Concentrating on the duration of the purchase deliberation process, we set out to address the following two questions: (1) Given that an individual is at a certain point in the deliberation process, what factors affect the likelihood of purchase? (2) Do the factors affecting purchase vary with the duration of the deliberation process? An empirical analysis of new car purchase survey data suggests that there are in fact significant differences at different stages of the deliberation process. Considerable differences are also found between those individuals who trade in a vehicle and those who do not.     

The prognostics of diversifying acquisitions

The paper offers a possible explanation for the discrepancy between the observed increase in the number of diversified firms in the U.S. and the evidence from finance studies which at best offers only weak support for value creation in diversifying acquisitions. It is argued that the acquisition could be the culmination of a series of related strategic moves by the acquiring firm to enter a new industry, and therefore a significant fraction of the gains from synergy could have been anticipated by the capital market well ahead of the acquisition. Results from an event study of the stock market's reactions to the antecedents of the recent acquisition of Rolm Inc. by IBM lend support to this argument.