Punishment in a Regulatory Setting: Experimental Evidence from the VCM

To analyze the effectiveness of punishment in inducing regulatory compliance, we modify a standard public goods experiment to include a financial penalty for free riding. The design allows us to vary both punishment probability and severity. We introduce the punishment mechanism in both a one-time and a repeated treatment and find that compliance (contributing to the public good) is increasing in expected punishment cost in both treatments. We also find that punishment severity has a larger effect on behavior than punishment probability. In the repeated treatment, we find that past punishment has a negative rather than positive effect on compliance.     

Forecast combinations under structural break uncertainty

This paper proposes two new weighting schemes that average forecasts based on different estimation windows in order to account for possible structural change. The first scheme weights the forecasts according to the values of reversed ordered CUSUM (ROC) test statistics, while the second weighting method simply assigns heavier weights to forecasts that use more recent information. Simulation results show that, when structural breaks are present, forecasts based on the first weighting scheme outperform those based on a procedure that simply uses ROC tests to choose and forecast from a single post-break estimation window. Combination forecasts based on our second weighting scheme outperform equally weighted combination forecasts. An empirical application based on a NAIRU Phillips curve model for the G7 countries illustrates these findings, and also shows that combination forecasts can outperform the random walk forecasting model.     

The relevance of personal characteristics in health care rationing: what the Australian public thinks and why

This article examines the preferences of the general public in Australia regarding health care resource allocation. While previous studies have revealed that the public is willing to give priority to particular groups of patients based on their personal characteristics, the present article goes beyond previous efforts in attempting to explain these results. In the present study, there was strong support among respondents for giving “equal priority” to people regardless of their personal characteristics. However, respondents did reveal a preference for married patients over single, for children over adults, for carers of children and the elderly, sole breadwinners, and good community contributors. Further, they would give a lower priority to those perceived as “self-harmers”—smokers, individuals with unhealthy diets, and those who rarely exercise. Variation in the answers according to broad economic and social beliefs across seven different categories (“factors”) influenced the pattern of the public's attitudes towards rationing. The Principal Components Analysis (PCA) indicated that most of the items in our survey are associated with seven factors that explain or capture much of the variation. These relate to a patient's avoidance of self-harm behaviors (Safe Living), their Life Style (diet, exercise, etc.), their contribution to the community through caring for others (Caring), their talents (Gifted), their sexual behavior (Sexuality), their age and marital status (Family), and whether they are an Australian citizen or employed (Citizen). The strength of social preferences—e.g., how strongly respondents would “discriminate” against a recreational drug user or preference a person with a healthy diet—is related to the particular class of preferences.     

Burden of illness for super-refractory status epilepticus patients

Objective: To provide an estimate of the annual number of super-refractory status epilepticus (SRSE) cases in the US and to evaluate utilization of hospital resources by these patients.

Methods: The Premier Hospital Database was utilized to estimate the number of SRSE cases based on hospital discharges during 2012. Discharges were classified as SRSE cases based on an algorithm using seizure-related International Classification of Diseases-9 (ICD-9) codes, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS), and treatment protocols (e.g. benzodiazepines, anti-epileptic drugs (AEDs), and ventilator use). Secondary analyses were conducted using more restrictive algorithms for SRSE.

Results: A total of 6,325 hospital discharges were classified as SRSE cases from a total of 5,300,000 hospital discharges. Applying a weighting based on hospital characteristics and 2012?US demographics, this projected to an estimated 41,156 cases of SRSE in the US during 2012, an estimated incidence rate of ～13/100,000 annually for SRSE in the US. Secondary analyses using stricter SRSE algorithms resulted in estimated incidence rates of ～11/100,000 and 8/100,000 annually. The mean LOS for SRSE hospitalizations was 16.5 days (median =11; interquartile range [IQR]?=?6–20), and the mean ICU LOS was 9.3 days (median =6; IQR =3–12). The mean cost of an SRSE hospitalization was $51,247 (median = $33,294; 95% CI = $49,634–$52,861).

Limitations: The analysis uses ICD-9 diagnostic codes and claims information, and there are inherent limitations in any methodology based on treatment protocol, which created challenges in distinguishing with complete accuracy between SRSE, RSE, and SE on the basis of care patterns in the database.

Conclusion: SRSE is associated with high mortality and morbidity, which place a high burden on healthcare resources. Projections based upon the findings of this study suggest an estimated 25,821–41,959 cases of SRSE may occur in the US each year, but more in-depth studies are required.     

The ABC of complementary products mergers

We present a simple model where mergers benefit consumers, harm outsiders and, depending on the shape of demand, can be profitable for insiders (and where mergers do not involve cost synergies).     

Global instability in experimental general equilibrium: the Scarf example

Scarf (Int. Econ. Rev. 1 (1960) 157) proposed a model of dynamic adjustment in which the standard tatonnement price adjustment process orbits around, rather than converges to, the competitive equilibrium. Hirota (Int. Econ. Rev. 22 (1981) 461) characterized the price paths. We explore the predictions of Scarf's model in a non-tatonnement experimental double auction. The average transaction prices in each period do follow the path predicted by the Scarf and Hirota models. When the model predicts convergence the data converge; when the model predicts orbits, the data orbit in the direction predicted by the model. Moreover, we observe a weak tendency for prices within a period to follow the path predicted by the model.     

Does trade foster contract enforcement?

Contract enforcement is probabilistic, but the probability depends on rules and processes. A stimulus to trade may induce traders to alter rules or processes to improve enforcement. In the model of this paper, such a positive knock-on effect occurs when the elasticity of supply of traders is sufficiently high. Negative knock-on is possible when the elasticity is low. Enforcement strategies in competing markets are complements (substitutes) if the supply of traders is sufficiently elastic (inelastic). The model provides a useful structure of endogenous enforcement that gives promise of explaining patterns of institutional development. Presented to the GEP Conference on ‘New Directions in International Trade Theory’, 8 and 9 June, 2007. An earlier version of this paper under another title was presented to the American Economic Association meetings, January 2004.     

On the distribution of education and democracy

This paper examines the determinants of female autonomy within households in a developing country. In particular, we investigate the relative contributions of earned versus unearned income in enhancing women's autonomy and the role of employment outside of their husband's farm. In a simple theoretical model, it is demonstrated that earned income could be more important than unearned income in empowering women. Using data from rural Bangladesh, empirical estimations confirm this prediction and also reveal the surprising fact that it is not employment per se but employment outside their husbands' farms that contributes to women's autonomy. The data also point to the importance of choosing the correct threat point in theoretical analyses of female autonomy.     

Leadership quality and follower affect: A study of U.S. presidential candidates

Using the tripartite model of attitude structure as a conceptual basis, this article investigates voter attitudes toward presidential candidates, including cognitive and affective assessments of these leaders as well as behavioral intentions and voting behavior. Data collected from the seven most recent U.S. presidential elections were used to compare Democratic and Republican Party candidates who were successful in securing votes to those who were unsuccessful. Here, follower perceptions of leader intelligence, feelings of pride and hope, as well as feelings of fear and anger were found to be statistically different between the two groups. Additionally, regression analysis using follower assessments of candidates' leadership quality, as dependent upon certain perceptual traits of that leader, are presented. Candidates perceived to be higher in intelligence, considered to possess stronger degrees of inspirational quality, and judged more “likeable,” in terms of generating stronger degrees of positive follower affect and lower degrees of negative follower affect, are considered better quality leaders. Followers' perceptions of these traits are found to be key predictors of whether that follower will consider a leader to be of high quality.