Information barriers, export promotion institutions, and the extensive margin of trade

This paper assesses the role played by export promotion institutions in shaping the extensive margin of Latin American and Caribbean countries’ exports over the period 1995–2004. We find that the presence of offices of export promotion agencies abroad favors an increase in the number of differentiated goods that are exported, whereas a larger number of diplomatic representations in the importer countries seem to be associated with exports of a larger number of homogeneous goods.     

On comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry

We consider 1927 borrowers from 54 countries who had a credit rating by both Moody’s and S&P at the end of 1998, and their subsequent default history up to the end of 2002. Viewing bond ratings as predicted probabilities of default, we consider partial orderings among competing probability forecasters and show that Moody’s and S&P cannot be ordered according to any of these. Therefore, the relative performance of the agencies depends crucially on the way in which probability predictions are compared.     

On the effectiveness of capital controls during the Great Recession: The Brazilian experience (2007–2013)

In this study, we analyze the impact in Brazil of a tax on external capital flows called “Imposto Sobre Operações Finaceiras” (IOF), by following data on a monthly basis from 2007 to 2013. Our goal is to determine whether a change in tax legislation can produce significant effects on the pattern of financial inflows from abroad. Using univariate structural models, our results show that changes in the IOF produced structural breaks on foreign portfolio investments.