Transitions: Two steps from theory to policy

This paper bridges a gap between emergent transition theories and the policy maker facing societal transitions when making long-term policy. Using a two-step approach the abstract concepts are linked to the realm of the policy maker. First the forces underlying transitions are identified and second where they can be found is presented. For this a conceptual map of societal systems, the clover model, is introduced. With the clover model the structures, cultures and practices of societal systems can be found. Furthermore, intermediate changes are systematically treated to track the phases of a transition. These transition diagnostics are supplemented with recommended policy frameworks.     

An axiomatization of the inner core using appropriate reduced games

I adapt a reduction process introduced by Serrano and Volij [Serrano, R., Volij, O., 1998. Axiomatization of neoclassical concepts for Economies. Journal of Mathematical Economics 30, 87–108] so that the reduced games of convex-valued games are convex-valued. I use the corresponding consistency property and its converse to axiomatize the inner core for games that are convex-valued, non-level and smooth.     

Learning, hubris and corporate serial acquisitions

Recent empirical research has shown that, from deal to deal, serial acquirers' cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) are declining. This has been most often attributed to CEOs hubris. We question this interpretation. Our theoretical analysis shows that (i) a declining CAR from deal to deal is not sufficient to reveal the presence of hubris, (ii) if CEOs are learning, economically motivated and rational, a declining CAR from deal to deal should be observed, (iii) predictions can be derived about the impact of learning and hubris on the time between successive deals and, finally, (iv) predictions about the CAR and about the time between successive deal trends lead to testable empirical hypotheses.     

Old-age benefits and retirement decisions of rural elderly in Brazil

I estimate the impact of social security benefits on retirement decisions of rural workers by studying changes in the rules governing old-age benefits for rural workers in Brazil. I focus on a reform implemented in 1991, which reduced the minimum eligibility age, increased benefits, and extended the program to non-heads of households. Because those benefits come with no strings attached — they are not means or retirement tested — any behavioral response is a pure income effect. The main finding of the paper is that access to old-age benefits is a strong determinant of retirement of rural workers in Brazil: receiving old-age benefits increases the probability of not working by about thirty-eight percentage points and reduces total hours per week by 22½ h.     

Investment, credit, and endogenous cycles

This paper presents a general-equilibrium dynamic Ramsey-type model that can generate endogenous cycle. We assume two different representative agents, borrowers and lenders, and financial intermediaries with inside and outside money. We investigate under which conditions this model presents a cyclical relationship between capital and loans. The sources of endogenous fluctuations in this model come from a credit restriction in the representative-borrower problem.     

The cost of disinflation and the European Monetary System

In this paper we present empirical evidence indicating that the EMS-countries have experienced a worsening of their inflation/unemployment trade-off during 1978–88, which on average was more pronounced than in the rest of the OECD-area. We explain this evidence by unfavorable labor market institutions in the EMS-countries, and by the nature of the deflationary policies which these countries have followed.     

Factors that influence the consumption of food outside the home in Brazil

The food sector has taken on an unprecedented dynamism in recent years. The processing and distribution of food, although heavily influenced by tradition, have seen intensive innovations, leading to changes in the way individuals consume. One of these changes is the consistent growth of the habit of eating outside the home. Consuming food outside the home involves a number of practices such as eating at commercial establishments that specialize in food (restaurants, fast food restaurants and snack bars) and those that offer food as a part of their services (hotels, in‐flight meals), and non‐commercial alternatives such as the homes of family and friends. In order to describe the eating habits of consumers in the town of Lavras in Minas Gerais State, Brazil, especially when it comes to eating outside the home, a quantitative study was conducted, with 413 questionnaires being distributed by convenience sampling. Among the main results are: (a) a search for variety as a motivator for eating outside the home; (b) convenience as an important element on many occasions of consumption; (c) more intensive consumption and more favourable attitudes towards eating out on the part of younger people, people with higher incomes, no children and a higher degree of schooling; (d) importance of paying for food by the kilo. When compared with a study conducted in England, important similarities were identified in socio‐demographic influences, although the cultural factors are notable when it comes to dishes and the types of eating establishment. The growing habit of eating out has therefore become a worldwide phenomenon, but with cultural and regional differences that have led to different rhythms in terms of change and the way food is supplied. The recovery of embedded cultural habits, with increased value being given to slow food, traditional dishes and tradition itself, appears to co‐exist with a productivity model of food courts, pasteurization and accessible prices. The occasion for consumption, which may be understood as the dichotomies of ‘weekday versus weekend’ or ‘convenience versus leisure’, is an important element that influences consumer behaviours. The undertaking of a cross‐cultural comparative study can be seen as an important step in this field of research.     

The potential impact of abolishing company tax in Ciskei

The purpose of this paper is to examine the likely effect of the abolition of company tax on the Ciskeian economy. After considering the case for and against a corporate tax exemption, the issues involved are analysed on two levels. Using aggregate data, drawn from available census data, we find that most firms seem likely either to prefer the existing package of industrial concessions to the tax holiday, or to be indifferent to either option. Similarly, a recent survey of manufacturing enterprises in Ciskei indicated that the majority would prefer the incentive package. Firms that might be attracted by the tax‐free option are likely to be relatively profitable, subsidiaries of multinational companies, and enjoying a higher turnover per worker than firms opting for the incentive package.