Combining forecasts: An application to elections

We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six US presidential elections from 1992 to 2012, we report the reductions in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and across four election forecasting methods: poll projections, expert judgment, quantitative models, and the Iowa Electronic Markets. Across the six elections, the resulting combined forecasts were more accurate than any individual component method, on average. The gains in accuracy from combining increased with the numbers of forecasts used, especially when these forecasts were based on different methods and different data, and in situations involving high levels of uncertainty. Such combining yielded error reductions of between 16% and 59%, compared to the average errors of the individual forecasts. This improvement is substantially greater than the 12% reduction in error that had been reported previously for combining forecasts.     

Aggregation of Directional Distance Functions and Industrial Efficiency

Three main objectives are pursued in this paper. First, we intend to analyze the aggregation problem of directional distance functions from a constructive viewpoint. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions concerning the structural properties of the production technology and of the nature of groups of firms. Indeed, exact additive aggregation holds for a linear technology and for a direction solely defined in the output space. Second, since these conditions are somewhat restrictive, we are interested in providing a measure for the aggregation bias through the relationship between industrial and structural technical efficiency. Finally, we show that this aggregation bias is a lower bound for industrial allocative efficiency.     

Surplus liquidity,central bank losses and the use of reserve requirements in emerging markets

Since the turn of the millennium, stocks of foreign reserves held by central banks in many emerging markets and developing countries have exceeded currency in circulation. To steer money market rates, these central banks have been absorbing liquidity from, rather than providing it to, the banking sector in their regular monetary policy operations. When interest rates in countries with major reserve currencies are low, the yield on foreign reserves is low. A higher interest rate on liquidity‐absorbing operations may expose central banks to losses. Although a central bank is not a profit‐maximizing institution, central bank losses can undermine the independence of the central bank. Using data for a large panel of central banks, this paper provides some evidence that central banks tend to apply low‐remunerated reserve requirements when profitability is at stake.     

Work and the human condition: Understanding difficulties in work adaptation

Except for the slave-owning areas of the south, no country has been as work-oriented as the United States. The American of all classes was expected to be “good with his hands.” But we shouldn't forget that work subcultures have their own mystique, they aren't “natural,” and one becomes a participating member through a process of enculturation which may be as difficult as the process of becoming Americanized is difficult for some immigrants.     

Demand for redistribution,support for the welfare state,and party identification in Austria

This paper describes subjective wage inequality and the demand for redistribution in Austria using individuals’ estimates of occupational wages from the International Social Survey Program. Although these estimates differ widely across individuals, the data clearly show that most individuals would like to decrease wage inequality, relative to the level of inequality which they perceive to exist. The empirical analysis also shows that the demand for redistribution is strongly associated not only with variables describing self-interested motives for redistribution, but also with perceptions of and social norms with respect to inequality. Further, the demand for redistribution is a strong predictor for whether an individual is supportive of redistribution by the state. On the other hand, however, I find almost no evidence for an empirical association between the demand for redistribution and individuals’ party identification.     

MEASURING RICHNESS AND POVERTY: A MICRO DATA APPLICATION TO EUROPE AND GERMANY

In this paper, we define a new class of richness measures. In contrast to the often used headcount, these new measures are sensitive to changes in rich individuals' incomes and, therefore, allow for a more sophisticated analysis of richness. We demonstrate the application of these new measures in analyzing the development of poverty and richness over time in Germany. Moreover, we compare Germany to many other European countries and investigate the impact of tax reforms on poverty and richness. Using these examples, we show the importance of taking the intensity of changes into account and not only the number of people beyond a given richness line (headcount). We propose to use the new measures in addition to the headcount index for a more comprehensive analysis of richness.     

Die reale Zahlungsbereitschaft für Klimaschutz

Der Klimawandel und das globale ?ffentliche Gut Klimaschutz genie?en gro?e Aufmerksamkeit in der ?ffentlichen Debatte. Klimaschutz verursacht jedoch Kosten und es stellt sich die Frage, was die Menschen in Deutschland tats?chlich für Klimaschutz bereit sind zu zahlen. Dieser Beitrag stellt eine neue Studie zur Ermittlung der realen Zahlungsbereitschaft für Klimaschutz vor und diskutiert die Ergebnisse aus der Perspektive der Klimapolitik.     

Mobil im Alter

Selbstst?ndigkeit f?rdern - Mobilit?t ist die F?higkeit, sich in seiner Umgebung frei zu bewegen und die Aktivit?ten des t?glichen Lebens unabh?ngig auszuführen. Im Alter ist sie eine wichtige Voraussetzung für ein selbstst?ndiges Leben. Oft entscheidet gerade die Mobilit?t darüber, wie sich für den betagten Menschen die weitere Lebenssituation gestaltet.