Power laws in firm size and openness to trade: Measurement and implications

Existing estimates of power laws in firm size typically ignore the impact of international trade. Using a simple theoretical framework, we show that international trade systematically affects the distribution of firm size: the power law exponent among exporting firms should be strictly lower in absolute value than the power law exponent among non-exporting firms. We use a dataset of French firms to demonstrate that this prediction is strongly supported by the data, both for the economy as a whole and at the industry level. Furthermore, the differences between power law coefficients for exporters and non-exporters are larger in sectors that are more open to trade. While estimates of power law exponents have been used to pin down parameters in theoretical and quantitative models, our analysis implies that the existing estimates are systematically lower than the true values. We propose two simple ways of estimating power law parameters that take explicit account of exporting behavior.     

Why does democracy need education?

Across countries, education and democracy are highly correlated. We motivate empirically and then model a causal mechanism explaining this correlation. In our model, schooling teaches people to interact with others and raises the benefits of civic participation, including voting and organizing. In the battle between democracy and dictatorship, democracy has a wide potential base of support but offers weak incentives to its defenders. Dictatorship provides stronger incentives to a narrower base. As education raises the benefits of civic engagement, it raises participation in support of a broad-based regime (democracy) relative to that in support of a narrow-based regime (dictatorship). This increases the likelihood of successful democratic revolutions against dictatorships, and reduces that of successful anti-democratic coups.     

Models of Multi-Category Choice Behavior

Given the advent of basket-level purchasing data of households, choice modelers are actively engaged in the development of statistical and econometric models of multi-category choice behavior of households. This paper reviews current developments in this area of research, discussing the modeling methodologies that have been used, the empirical findings that have emerged so far, and directions for future research. We also motivate the use of Bayesian methods to overcome the computational challenges involved in estimation.     

Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect Against "Sudden Stops"?

There is a debate on whether some forms of financial flows offerbetter protection against crises than others. Using a largepanel data set that includes advanced, emerging, and developingeconomies during 1970–2003, this article analyzes thebehavior of several types of flows: foreign direct investment(FDI), portfolio equity investment, portfolio debt investment,other flows to the official sector, other flows to banks, andother flows to the nonbank private sector. Differences acrosstypes of flows are limited with respect to volatility, persistence,cross-country comovement, and correlation with growth at homeor in the world economy. However, consistent with conventionalwisdom, FDI is the least volatile form of financial flow, whenthe average size of net or gross flows is taken into account.The differences are striking during "sudden stops" in financialflows (defined as drops in total net financial inflows of morethan percentage points of GDP compared with the previous year).In such episodes, FDI is remarkably stable, and portfolio equityseems to play a limited role. Portfolio debt experiences a reversal,though it recovers relatively quickly, and other flows (includingbank loans and trade credit) experience severe drops and oftenremain depressed for a few years.     

Bounds of ruin probabilities

Abstract

Upper and lower bounds are obtained for ruin probabilities with safety margin ρ in the case of known expectation, variance and range for the claim severity function.     

Competition and Industrial Organisation in Transition Markets: What Can We Derive from Empirical Studies?

Competition is the basic concept for both industrial organisation theory and institutional economics. Transition economies, including Russia, are natural laboratories allowing us to trace the emergence of competition, the influence of competition on the conduct of market participants, the relationship between competition and market structure and the institutional foundation of competition. This article provides a summary of the results of empirical studies in the above area. We try to explain some puzzles concerning the influence of competition on the conduct of Russian market participants and interpret the results in the framework of institutional and industrial economics. Overall, the results of empirical studies can be generalised as follows. Competition in Russian markets has been gaining momentum over the last 15 years. The results of empirical studies have confirmed the assumption that competition is an incentive for active restructuring of privatised enterprises. Many of the data collected are evidence in favour of the endogenous market structure approach. From the institutional viewpoint, the history of the evolution of Russia's transition economy shows interdependence between private property and competition: better protection of property rights is a precondition for the development of competition. At the same time, the model of corporate governance that allows the property rights of private owners to be protected in the Russian institutional environment restricts organisational diversity and therefore competition in Russian markets.     

Short-term predictability of equity returns along two style dimensions

This study uses daily return data on 20 portfolios split along two dimensions, growth/value and market size, over the period of four decades and employs over 12,000 trading rules to investigate the short-term predictability of portfolio returns. It shows that, historically, portfolios of small stocks and value stocks have been more suitable for active trading strategies since returns on value portfolios exhibit more predictability than returns on growth portfolios and returns on portfolios of large stocks appear to be less predictive than returns on portfolios of small stocks. The predictive ability of trading rules is all but gone during the 2000s. Popularization of exchange-traded funds and the introduction of quote decimalization on the exchanges are the most likely reasons behind the lack of predictability.     

Evolution of corporate governance in Russia: government policy vs. real incentives of economic agents

This article is devoted to analysing the evolution of corporate governance mechanisms in Russia. Special attention is paid to the causes of dramatic discrepancies between the expected outputs of institutional reforms implemented by the Russian government with World Bank and IMF support and the actual behaviour of Russian companies. Why was the model of interaction between enterprises and investors, owners and managers, which had been successful in other countries, rejected by Russian business in the 1990s? And how can we evaluate certain positive changes that have occurred recently in corporate policies of major Russian companies? These questions are answered on the bases of analysis of economic agents' motivation at different stages of development of corporate structures in Russia. The article argues that the need for comprehensive organisational and technological restructuring of enterprises led to the need for a concentrated ownership structure. The formation of such a structure in the late 1990s (which occurred, in fact, contrary to the government's activities) created preconditions for extending the time horizon of dominant owners and managers and for positive qualitative changes in the relations between major Russian companies and their shareholders and investors.