The Effect of Mandatory IFRS Adoption on Conditional Conservatism in Europe

We study the effect of mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in Europe in 2005 on conditional conservatism. We capture conditional conservatism with a modified version of the Khan and Watts measure (C_Score) that also controls for potential shifts in unconditional conservatism and cost of capital. From a sample of 13,711 firm‐year observations drawn from 16 European countries spanning the 2000–2010 period, we document an overall decline in the degree of conditional conservatism after the adoption of IFRS. We show that the decline in conditional conservatism is less pronounced for countries with high quality audit environments and strong enforcement of compliance with accounting standards using the Brown et al. audit and enforcement index. As asset impairment tests are a key mechanism ensuring conditional conservatism in the IFRS framework, we further examine these. We show that firms booking an asset impairment present a smaller decline in the degree of conditional conservatism relative to firms that do not. We also demonstrate that firms that do not book an asset impairment when evidence suggests the probable need to do so experience a more pronounced reduction in conditional conservatism. We argue that IFRS are conceptually conditionally conservative but that inappropriate application of conditional conservatism principles is likely to prevent financial reporting from reaching the level of conservatism targeted by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB).     

Information percolation,momentum and reversal

We propose a joint theory of time-series momentum and reversal based on a rational-expectations model. We show that a necessary condition for momentum to arise in this framework is that information flows at an increasing rate. We focus on word-of-mouth communication as a mechanism that enforces this condition and generates short-term momentum and long-term reversal. Investors with heterogeneous trading strategies—contrarian and momentum traders—coexist in the marketplace. Although a significant proportion of investors are momentum traders, momentum is not completely eliminated. Word-of-mouth communication spreads rumors and generates price run-ups and reversals. Our theoretical predictions are in line with empirical findings.     

Power laws in firm size and openness to trade: Measurement and implications

Existing estimates of power laws in firm size typically ignore the impact of international trade. Using a simple theoretical framework, we show that international trade systematically affects the distribution of firm size: the power law exponent among exporting firms should be strictly lower in absolute value than the power law exponent among non-exporting firms. We use a dataset of French firms to demonstrate that this prediction is strongly supported by the data, both for the economy as a whole and at the industry level. Furthermore, the differences between power law coefficients for exporters and non-exporters are larger in sectors that are more open to trade. While estimates of power law exponents have been used to pin down parameters in theoretical and quantitative models, our analysis implies that the existing estimates are systematically lower than the true values. We propose two simple ways of estimating power law parameters that take explicit account of exporting behavior.     

Quantifying the defensive medicine contribution to primary care costs

Background:

Defensive medicine represents one cause of economic losses in healthcare. Studies that measured its cost have produced conflicting results.

Objective:

To directly measure the proportion of primary care costs attributable to defensive medicine.

Research design and methods:

Six-week prospective study of primary care physicians from four outpatient practices. On 3 distinct days, participants were asked to rate each order placed the day before on the extent to which it represented defensive medicine, using a 5-point scale from 0 (not at all defensive) to 4 (entirely defensive).

Main outcome measures:

This study calculated the order defensiveness score for each order (the defensiveness/4) and the physician defensive score (the mean of all orders defensiveness scores). Each order was assigned a weighted cost by multiplying the total cost of that order (based on Medicare reimbursement rates) by the order defensiveness score. The proportion of total cost attributable to defensive medicine was calculated by dividing the weighted cost of defensive orders by the total cost of all orders.

Results:

Of 50 eligible physicians, 23 agreed to participate; 21 returned the surveys and rated 1234 individual orders on 347 patients. Physicians wrote an average of 3.6?±?1.0 orders/visit with an associated total cost of $72.60?±?18.5 per order. Across physicians, the median physician defensive score was 0.018 (IQR?=?[0.008, 0.049]) and the proportion of costs attributable to defensive medicine was 3.1% (IQR?=?[0.5%, 7.2%]). Physicians with defensive scores above vs below the median had a similar number of orders and total costs per visit. Physicians were more likely to place defensive orders if trained in community hospitals vs academic centers (OR?=?4.29; 95% CI?=?1.55–11.86; p?=?0.01).

Conclusions:

This study describes a new method to directly quantify the cost of defensive medicine. Defensive medicine appears to have minimal impact on primary care costs.     

On the analysis of a multi-threshold Markovian risk model

We consider a class of Markovian risk models perturbed by a multiple threshold dividend strategy in which the insurer collects premiums at rate c _i whenever the surplus level resides in the i-th surplus layer, i=1, 2, …,n+1 where n<∞. We derive the Laplace-Stieltjes transform (LST) of the distribution of the time to ruin as well as the discounted joint density of the surplus prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin. By interpreting that the insurer, whose gross premium rate is c, pays dividends continuously at rate d _i =c?c _i whenever the surplus level resides in the i-th surplus layer, we also derive the expected discounted value of total dividend payments made prior to ruin. Our results are obtained via a recursive approach which makes use of an existing connection, linking an insurer's surplus process to an embedded fluid flow process.     

Monetary Regime Choice and Optimal Credit Rationing at the Official Rate: The Case of Russia

ABSTRACT

Stabilizing monetary policy in a small open economy is constrained by the open economy trilemma. In this paper, we investigate whether foreign exchange market interventions and the Central Bank’s credit rationing at the official rate (CROR) may soften this constraint and improve the results of monetary policy for different monetary regimes. We construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model appropriate for analyzing the forward-looking behavior of households facing non-zero probabilities of losing access to financial market and CROR. We have found significant credit rationing in the quarterly Russian data of 2001:Q1–2014:Q2. The probability of losing access to financial market and the probability of CROR are estimated as 22% and 66%, respectively. Using Russian data of 2001:Q1–2014:Q2 we demonstrate that CROR provoked forward-looking activity in financial market, which led to more Ruble devaluation in the crises of 2008–2009. It improved poor countercyclical performance of two Russian monetary policy rules, whereas made small effect on welfare. Welfare maximization exercises reveal a tradeoff between low-inflation and high-welfare solutions and favor of a floating exchange rate regime. We found the optimal value of the probability of CROR in both exchange rate-based and Taylor rule-based models but resulting improvement in welfare is very small.     

Determinants of Internationalization Strategies of Emerging Market Firms: A Multilevel Approach

Recently, debates about uniqueness of emerging market firms’ (EMFs) internationalization strategies were a focus of research. Yet, findings regarding their determinants are mixed, and conclusions on how EMFs’ internationalization strategies can be theoretically explained vary greatly. This article elaborates on the underlying reasons for these inconclusive results and addresses them by the development of a multilevel theoretical framework allowing for a better understanding of integrative influence of institutional, sector, and firm-specific determinants of EMFs’ internationalization strategies. This framework is validated by evidence from Russia, and a multiple case study approach is adopted to investigate the determinants of internationalization strategies of Russian firms.     

Why does democracy need education?

Across countries, education and democracy are highly correlated. We motivate empirically and then model a causal mechanism explaining this correlation. In our model, schooling teaches people to interact with others and raises the benefits of civic participation, including voting and organizing. In the battle between democracy and dictatorship, democracy has a wide potential base of support but offers weak incentives to its defenders. Dictatorship provides stronger incentives to a narrower base. As education raises the benefits of civic engagement, it raises participation in support of a broad-based regime (democracy) relative to that in support of a narrow-based regime (dictatorship). This increases the likelihood of successful democratic revolutions against dictatorships, and reduces that of successful anti-democratic coups.     

Models of Multi-Category Choice Behavior

Given the advent of basket-level purchasing data of households, choice modelers are actively engaged in the development of statistical and econometric models of multi-category choice behavior of households. This paper reviews current developments in this area of research, discussing the modeling methodologies that have been used, the empirical findings that have emerged so far, and directions for future research. We also motivate the use of Bayesian methods to overcome the computational challenges involved in estimation.     

Bounds of ruin probabilities

Abstract

Upper and lower bounds are obtained for ruin probabilities with safety margin ρ in the case of known expectation, variance and range for the claim severity function.