ABSTRACTStabilizing monetary policy in a small open economy is constrained by the open economy trilemma. In this paper, we investigate whether foreign exchange market interventions and the Central Bank’s credit rationing at the official rate (CROR) may soften this constraint and improve the results of monetary policy for different monetary regimes. We construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model appropriate for analyzing the forward-looking behavior of households facing non-zero probabilities of losing access to financial market and CROR. We have found significant credit rationing in the quarterly Russian data of 2001:Q1–2014:Q2. The probability of losing access to financial market and the probability of CROR are estimated as 22% and 66%, respectively. Using Russian data of 2001:Q1–2014:Q2 we demonstrate that CROR provoked forward-looking activity in financial market, which led to more Ruble devaluation in the crises of 2008–2009. It improved poor countercyclical performance of two Russian monetary policy rules, whereas made small effect on welfare. Welfare maximization exercises reveal a tradeoff between low-inflation and high-welfare solutions and favor of a floating exchange rate regime. We found the optimal value of the probability of CROR in both exchange rate-based and Taylor rule-based models but resulting improvement in welfare is very small. 相似文献
We consider a class of Markovian risk models perturbed by a multiple threshold dividend strategy in which the insurer collects premiums at rate ci whenever the surplus level resides in the i-th surplus layer, i=1, 2, …,n+1 where n<∞. We derive the Laplace-Stieltjes transform (LST) of the distribution of the time to ruin as well as the discounted joint density of the surplus prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin. By interpreting that the insurer, whose gross premium rate is c, pays dividends continuously at rate di=c?ci whenever the surplus level resides in the i-th surplus layer, we also derive the expected discounted value of total dividend payments made prior to ruin. Our results are obtained via a recursive approach which makes use of an existing connection, linking an insurer's surplus process to an embedded fluid flow process. 相似文献
Background:Defensive medicine represents one cause of economic losses in healthcare. Studies that measured its cost have produced conflicting results.Objective:To directly measure the proportion of primary care costs attributable to defensive medicine.Research design and methods:Six-week prospective study of primary care physicians from four outpatient practices. On 3 distinct days, participants were asked to rate each order placed the day before on the extent to which it represented defensive medicine, using a 5-point scale from 0 (not at all defensive) to 4 (entirely defensive).Main outcome measures:This study calculated the order defensiveness score for each order (the defensiveness/4) and the physician defensive score (the mean of all orders defensiveness scores). Each order was assigned a weighted cost by multiplying the total cost of that order (based on Medicare reimbursement rates) by the order defensiveness score. The proportion of total cost attributable to defensive medicine was calculated by dividing the weighted cost of defensive orders by the total cost of all orders.Results:Of 50 eligible physicians, 23 agreed to participate; 21 returned the surveys and rated 1234 individual orders on 347 patients. Physicians wrote an average of 3.6?±?1.0 orders/visit with an associated total cost of $72.60?±?18.5 per order. Across physicians, the median physician defensive score was 0.018 (IQR?=?[0.008, 0.049]) and the proportion of costs attributable to defensive medicine was 3.1% (IQR?=?[0.5%, 7.2%]). Physicians with defensive scores above vs below the median had a similar number of orders and total costs per visit. Physicians were more likely to place defensive orders if trained in community hospitals vs academic centers (OR?=?4.29; 95% CI?=?1.55–11.86; p?=?0.01).Conclusions:This study describes a new method to directly quantify the cost of defensive medicine. Defensive medicine appears to have minimal impact on primary care costs. 相似文献
We introduce a framework to theoretically and empirically examine electoral maldistricting—the intentional drawing of electoral districts to advance partisan objectives, compromising voter welfare. We identify the legislatures that maximize voter welfare and those that maximize partisan goals, and incorporate them into a maldistricting index. This index measures the intent to maldistrict by comparing distances from the actual legislature to the nearest partisan and welfare-maximizing legislatures. Using 2008 presidential election data and 2010 census-based district maps, we find a Republican-leaning bias in district maps. Our index tracks court rulings in intuitive ways. 相似文献
This article is based on the adaptation of Ajzen’s theory of planned behavior (TPB) to build an entrepreneurial intention framework tailored to the specific context of researchers involved in eco-label industry, who can be perceived as nascent entrepreneurs. The entrepreneurial intention model is tested on a convenience sample of researchers involved in eco-label industry from a wide range of countries. The configurational effect of research experience, personal attitude, funding instruments and entrepreneurial education level is tested for causal condition related to entrepreneurial intention of 25 eco-label researchers. The qualitative approach of data reveals that research experience and personal attitude relate positively to entrepreneurial career intentions and that these relationships are mediated by entrepreneurial education level. A multi-sided online platform connecting innovators and potential investors is considered a suitable solution for funding respondents’ results of research and innovation activities. Stimulating entrepreneurial motivations and intentions may help researchers to better adapt to alternative career perspectives. Results of this study suggest several ways to stimulate entrepreneurial career choices among researchers involved in eco-label industry.
This study aimed to synthesize fragmented knowledge about international student mobility (ISM) in higher education to provide an understanding of existing studies and directions for future research. To this end, the authors conducted a systematic literature review using a hybrid approach that integrated bibliometric analysis with the theory, context, and method (TCM) framework (Paul et al., Journal of World Business, 2017;52(3):327–342). Applying bibliometric analysis, this study found publication trends, prolific journals, influential articles, and major themes in the field, whereas the TCM framework helped identify widely used theories (motivation theory, immigration theory, acculturation theory, learning theory, and capital theory), research contexts (destination country or region, population, and others), and methods in research and provided future study directions. The identified gaps in the existing literature suggest that future research should develop theoretical foundations and research designs to analyse new processes, patterns, and issues in ISM in higher education within the context of today's changing international environment. In addition to identifying the key research themes and research foundations of ISM in higher education, this review can help add value to the ISM literature from a marketing perspective. This is the first comprehensive literature review of this topic using a hybrid approach. 相似文献
In the underwriting and pricing of nonlife insurance products, it is essential for the insurer to utilize both policyholder information and claim history to ensure profitability and proper risk management. In this paper, we apply a flexible regression model with random effects, called the Mixed Logit-weighted Reduced Mixture-of-Experts, which leverages both policyholder information and their claim history, to categorize policyholders into groups with similar risk profiles, and to determine a premium that accurately captures the unobserved risks. Estimates of model parameters and the posterior distribution of random effects can be obtained by a stochastic variational algorithm, which is numerically efficient and scalable to large insurance portfolios. Our proposed framework is shown to outperform the classical benchmark models (Logistic and Lognormal GL(M)M) in terms of goodness-of-fit to data, while offering intuitive and interpretable characterization of policyholders' risk profiles to adequately reflect their claim history. 相似文献