Wavelet Analysis of the Bombay Stock Exchange Index

The fluctuations in the rate of returns of the Bombay stock exchange are analyzed through wavelet transform. The fluctuations, in various time scales, naturally separated by the wavelets, are subjected to statistical analysis. The localization and multiresolution properties of the wavelets enable one to identify collective behaviour in the stock market and the extent of their influence at various time scales. The Gaussian nature of the rate of returns at certain scales and the periodic nature of the same, at other scales, are clearly brought out by this analysis. The utility of this approach for modeling purpose is also elucidated.

     

Casinos,casino size,and crime: A panel data analysis of Michigan counties

Growth in legal gaming in the United States over the past quarter century or so is well-documented. One important factor fueling this growth was the passage of the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act of 1988, which permitted Native American tribes to establish, under agreements or “compacts” with the states in which they are located, casinos offering what is known as Class III gaming: slot machines, blackjack, roulette, and other games. Since the passage of the Act, there have been 21 Native American casinos established in Michigan. Also, three non-Native American casinos opened in Detroit in 1999 and 2000. This growth in the number of casinos has sparked a wide-ranging debate over the social and economic impacts of casino development.The purpose of this research is to focus on the crime issue in the broader casino debate. We investigate the impact of these Michigan casinos on the rates of burglary, robbery, larceny and motor vehicle theft (property crimes) in casino host counties as well as in nearby counties. We employ a panel data set with annual observations on all 83 Michigan counties for the period 1994–2010. The dataset includes crime rates taken from the FBI crime data series, variables for the presence of a casino in a county or in a nearby county, the scale of a casino's operations as measured by revenues, and a variety of control variables suggested by the broader literature investigating the factors that determine crime rates generally.Our results suggest that in most cases the property crime rates studied are not affected by the presence or size of a casino in a county or in a nearby county. The largest such impact, which is negative, is for motor vehicle theft. The size of a casino does have a small positive effect on the motor vehicle theft rate.     

Enough is Enough: Cognitive Antecedents of Workaholism and Its Aftermath

Workaholism is commonly conceptualized as a compulsive inner drive to work excessively hard. This study investigates to what extent rigid personal beliefs—i.e., performance‐based self‐esteem (self‐esteem that is contingent upon good performance) and an enough continuation rule (continuing with work until one feels one has done enough)—contribute to exhaustion through workaholism. To examine these potential antecedents and consequences of workaholism, data of a two‐wave longitudinal survey study with a six‐month time interval was used (n = 191). Results of structural equation modeling provided support for our hypotheses. Taken together, our findings show that rigid personal beliefs at T1 predicted primarily working compulsively at T2, and working compulsively at T1 influenced exhaustion at T2. Moreover, reciprocal relationships were found between applying the enough continuation rule and working compulsively, and between working compulsively and exhaustion. These results suggest partial mediation from cognitive antecedents (personal beliefs) through workaholism to exhaustion. In practical terms, the results indicate that cognitive antecedents may provide a good starting point for interventions for preventing exhaustion and workaholism. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION FOR LONG‐TERM INVESTORS: PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY AND PRIOR INFORMATION

We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on the long‐run risk for three asset classes: stocks, bills and bonds. Using a Bayesian vector autoregression with an uninformative prior we find that parameter uncertainty raises the annualized long‐run volatilities of all three asset classes proportionally with the same factor relative to volatilities that are conditional on maximum likelihood parameter estimates. As a result, the horizon effect in optimal asset allocations is much weaker compared to models in which only equity returns are subject to parameter uncertainty. Results are sensitive to alternative informative priors, but generally the term structure of risk for stocks and bonds is relatively flat for investment horizons up to 15 years. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regulated firms in pollution permit markets with banking

This paper examines a competitive intertemporal market for bankable emission permits, such as sulfur dioxide allowances. Without profit regulation, firms are willing to bank permits if permit prices rise over time with the rate of interest, but will not bank if prices rise more slowly.The market achieves aggregate emission targets at least total cost if there is no profit regulation, but may not do so if firms are subject to profit regulation. Firms must arbitrage differences both in abatement cost and in the regulatory treatment of permits to achieve least total cost.The impetus for this work came from research we initiated during the Summer of 1990 for the Energy Information Agency. We would like to thank Chuck Howe for his detailed comments and enthusiasm, and Jim Alm, Dave Bjornstad, Charles deBartolome, Mike Greenwood, Robert Hahn, Douglas Hale, Carolyn Lang, Jim Markusen, Edward Morey, Till Requate, and Tom Tietenberg. We are grateful to the editor and two anonymous referees for stressing the importance of regulation in these markets and for their helpful and clarifying advice.     

A Cost Function Analysis of the Australian Transportation Equipment Industry

This article investigates the existence of economies of scale and input cross and direct price elasticities of demand in the Australian motor vehicle industry. Our estimated cost elasticities were less than one (consistent with economies of scale), but not significantly less than one at the 10 per cent level for two versions of the model. However, the estimated cost elasticity was significantly less than one at approximately the 2.5 per cent level for a third. Thus, these results give some credibility to the infant industry argument for continued assistance to the Australian transportation equipment industry. A four-input model separating domestic and foreign intermediate goods inputs suggests that while restrictions on imported components may have given some short-run relief to the domestic components industry and increased the demand for labour domestically, they decreased the demand for domestic capital. Although the infant industry argument could support short-run protectionist policies for the industry, it appears that such policies regarding the Australian motor vehicle industry must be designed carefully with a specified phase-out period if long-term adverse results are to be avoided.     

ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT POSITION OF FOUR ASIAN COUNTRIES BEFORE THE 1997 CRISIS

Abstract.  The current paper presents an empirical analysis of the current account positions during the pre Asian crisis period, in the four most crisis-hit countries (namely Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea and Indonesia). We have employed the procedures advocated by Husted for the presence of stationarity in current accounts by estimating a cointegration relationship between any country's exports and imports. The results do not substantiate the presence of cointegration between the series, implying that the macroeconomic fundamentals in these countries prior to the crisis were far from robust, at least from the perspective of current account sustainability.     

Pitfalls in estimates of the relationship between stock returns and inflation

Empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis give conflicting results, regardless of whether income growth is accommodated in the estimates. This paper shows theoretically and empirically that standard methods of testing the Fisher hypothesis give biased results and that the bias depends on the specification of the Fisher equation, the process governing inflation, measurement of inflation expectations, and the time aggregation of the data. Alternative tests show that share markets take several years to adjust to innovations in inflation and therefore that the Fisher hypothesis cannot be maintained. Helpful comments and suggestions from Hans Christian Kongsted, Darrel Turkington and seminar participants at the University of Western Australia, and University of Konstanz and, particularly, two referees, are gratefully acknowledged.