Disentangling regulatory policy: The effects of state regulations on trucking rates

This paper combines state-level data on trucking rates with information on state-level regulations to estimate the independent effect on rates from three different types of motor carrier regulations: rate regulation; entry regulation; and the provision of antitrust immunity for decisions made jointly by motor carrier rate bureaus. The empirical results indicate that state-level motor carrier regulations generally increase trucking rates, with entry regulation having the largest effect in the LTL (less-than-truckload) sector and rate regulation having the largest effect in the TL (truckload) sector. The study also examines interaction effects among the three types of regulations and concludes that the combination of strict entry requirements and antitrust immunity leads to significant increases in trucking rates.This project was begun when both authors were in the Bureau of Economics of the Federal Trade Commission. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Commission or any individual Commissioner. We are grateful to Ed Rastatter of the Department of Transportation for granting us access to the data analyzed in this report, and to Bruce Allen of Wharton who provided them to us in machine readable form. We thank James MacDonald, Paul Pautler and Ed Rastatter for comments on an earlier draft. We also are grateful to Lynn Carpenter, Karen Condor, Effie Georges, Dolly Howarth, Andrew Kim, Georges Pascoe, and Carolyn Samuels for their research and programming assistance.     

CUTTING CARBON EMISSIONS AT A PROFIT (PART I): OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE UNITED STATES

This article identifies and corrects shortcomings in recent modeling studies on the economics of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. The major assessments of the Kyoto Protocol—by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Clinton White House Council of Economic Advisers, the U.S. Department of Energy Interlaboratory Working Group, and the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum—are found to be seriously incomplete. Each study omits one or several of four major cost-reducing policy options, resulting in cost estimates that are far too pessimistic.
In the present study, these shortcomings are overcome through the integrated evaluation of all major cost-cutting policy options within a coherent least-cost framework. Three domestic policies—a national carbon cap and permit trading program, productivity-enhancing market reforms and technology programs, and recycling of permit auction revenues into economically advantageous tax cuts—are combined with international emissions allowance trading.
This analysis shows that an integrated least-cost strategy for mitigating U.S. greenhouse gas emissions would produce an annual net output gain of roughly 0.4% of GDP in 2010 and about 0.9% of GDP in 2020. On a cumulative net present value basis, the United States would gain $250 billion by 2010 and $600 billion by 2020. International flexibility mechanisms (including emissions trading) are of only secondary significance in realizing these productivity, output, and welfare gains.     

The recursive approach to time inconsistency

We introduce a new class of finite horizon stochastic decision problems in which preferences change over time, and provide a proof of the existence of a recursively optimal strategy. Recursive optimization techniques dominate many areas of economic dynamics. However, in decision problems in which tastes change over time, the solution technique most commonly applied is not recursive, but rather strategic (subgame perfection). In this paper we argue in favor of the recursive approach, and we take the necessary theoretical steps to make the recursive methodology applicable.     

Twitter investor sentiment and corporate earnings announcements

We examine the impact of firm-specific investor sentiment (FSIS) on stock returns for negative and positive earnings surprises. Using a measure constructed from firm-specific tweets, we find that FSIS has a greater impact on stock returns for negative relative to positive earnings surprises. We further show that the impact of FSIS is greater for firms whose valuation is uncertain and difficult to arbitrage. Moreover, we provide evidence of return reversals over post-announcement periods. Our results highlight the importance of FSIS around earnings announcements.     

Incumbency preservation through electoral legislation: The case of the secret ballot

The secret ballot was designed to eliminate the incentive for candidates to purchase votes through direct vote buying. When voters have private information on their candidate preferences, incumbent candidates will generally be less efficient in purchasing votes than their challengers. Incumbent candidates may therefore benefit from the elimination of direct vote purchasing. Viewed in this vein, passage of secret ballot laws by state legislatures can be seen as an institutional mechanism to protect their incumbency advantage, rather than as an act of necessary electoral reform to create fair elections and protect democracy. Submitted: May 25, 1999 / Accepted: July 24, 2000     

Coordination, Differentiation, and the Timing of Radio Commercials

This paper examines the timing of commercial breaks by contemporary music radio stations. A simple model shows that stations may prefer, all else equal, to choose the same times (coordination) or different times (differentiation) for breaks depending on how listeners behave. It also shows that how much commercials overlap in Nash equilibrium should vary in different ways with observable market characteristics, such as the number of stations, depending on whether stations prefer to coordinate or differentiate. Panel data on the timing of commercials by 1,094 stations provide consistent support for the hypothesis that stations prefer to coordinate on timing .     

Did working families' tax credit work? The impact of in-work support on labour supply in Great Britain

In-work benefits are promoted as a way to make low-income families better off without introducing adverse work incentives. In 1999, the structure of in-work benefits in the UK changed, and their generosity almost doubled, through the introduction of Working Families' Tax Credit (WFTC). With micro-data from before and after its introduction, a structural model of labour supply and programme participation estimates that, by 2002, WFTC had increased labour supply of lone mothers by around 5.1 percentage points, slightly reduced labour supply of mothers in couples by 0.6 percentage points, and increased the labour supply of fathers in couples by 0.8 percentage points, compared with the programme that preceded it. Other tax and benefit reforms contemporaneous with WFTC acted to reduce the labour supply of parents, though. Without any form of in-work benefit in the UK, labour force participation by lone mothers would be around 45 percent, rather than the 55 per cent we now observe. Participating in family credit, the UK's in-work programme before October 1999, conferred a utility loss as well as a utility gain from the extra income, but this utility cost of participation was lower in the final year of WFTC than under previous programmes for lone mothers, and no different for individuals in couples: this in itself induced more lone mothers to work.