The recursive approach to time inconsistency

We introduce a new class of finite horizon stochastic decision problems in which preferences change over time, and provide a proof of the existence of a recursively optimal strategy. Recursive optimization techniques dominate many areas of economic dynamics. However, in decision problems in which tastes change over time, the solution technique most commonly applied is not recursive, but rather strategic (subgame perfection). In this paper we argue in favor of the recursive approach, and we take the necessary theoretical steps to make the recursive methodology applicable.     

Twitter investor sentiment and corporate earnings announcements

We examine the impact of firm-specific investor sentiment (FSIS) on stock returns for negative and positive earnings surprises. Using a measure constructed from firm-specific tweets, we find that FSIS has a greater impact on stock returns for negative relative to positive earnings surprises. We further show that the impact of FSIS is greater for firms whose valuation is uncertain and difficult to arbitrage. Moreover, we provide evidence of return reversals over post-announcement periods. Our results highlight the importance of FSIS around earnings announcements.     

Incumbency preservation through electoral legislation: The case of the secret ballot

The secret ballot was designed to eliminate the incentive for candidates to purchase votes through direct vote buying. When voters have private information on their candidate preferences, incumbent candidates will generally be less efficient in purchasing votes than their challengers. Incumbent candidates may therefore benefit from the elimination of direct vote purchasing. Viewed in this vein, passage of secret ballot laws by state legislatures can be seen as an institutional mechanism to protect their incumbency advantage, rather than as an act of necessary electoral reform to create fair elections and protect democracy. Submitted: May 25, 1999 / Accepted: July 24, 2000     

Coordination, Differentiation, and the Timing of Radio Commercials

This paper examines the timing of commercial breaks by contemporary music radio stations. A simple model shows that stations may prefer, all else equal, to choose the same times (coordination) or different times (differentiation) for breaks depending on how listeners behave. It also shows that how much commercials overlap in Nash equilibrium should vary in different ways with observable market characteristics, such as the number of stations, depending on whether stations prefer to coordinate or differentiate. Panel data on the timing of commercials by 1,094 stations provide consistent support for the hypothesis that stations prefer to coordinate on timing .     

Did working families' tax credit work? The impact of in-work support on labour supply in Great Britain

In-work benefits are promoted as a way to make low-income families better off without introducing adverse work incentives. In 1999, the structure of in-work benefits in the UK changed, and their generosity almost doubled, through the introduction of Working Families' Tax Credit (WFTC). With micro-data from before and after its introduction, a structural model of labour supply and programme participation estimates that, by 2002, WFTC had increased labour supply of lone mothers by around 5.1 percentage points, slightly reduced labour supply of mothers in couples by 0.6 percentage points, and increased the labour supply of fathers in couples by 0.8 percentage points, compared with the programme that preceded it. Other tax and benefit reforms contemporaneous with WFTC acted to reduce the labour supply of parents, though. Without any form of in-work benefit in the UK, labour force participation by lone mothers would be around 45 percent, rather than the 55 per cent we now observe. Participating in family credit, the UK's in-work programme before October 1999, conferred a utility loss as well as a utility gain from the extra income, but this utility cost of participation was lower in the final year of WFTC than under previous programmes for lone mothers, and no different for individuals in couples: this in itself induced more lone mothers to work.     

Predatory Pricing and the Speed of Antitrust Enforcement

A common complaint is that in certain industries antitrust action against predation istoo slow to ensure that a true victim can survive until the antitrust process has beenconcluded. This paper discusses, in the context of two recent antitrust cases, the sources of delay in the antitrust process, and different policy reforms aimed at speeding up the process or otherwise protecting a true victim.     

Universal Banking Under Bilateral Information Asymmetry

The Gramm–Leach–Bliley (GLB) Act of 1999 repealed many provisions of the Glass–Steagall Act that curtailed competition between banks and commercial firms. Significantly, however, the GLB Act did not repeal the constraint on banks from owning equity in commercial firms (“universal banking”). Should banks be allowed to hold equity in corporate borrowers? If allowed, would banks optimally choose to do so? Despite its relevance from a policy perspective, there are surprisingly few theoretical analyses of this issue of “universal banking”. We develop a model in which the bank's advisory role as an “inside” shareholder hinges on its equity stake. The optimal capital structure and the bank's and entrepreneur's equity stakes are endogenously determined in a world with potential double-sided moral hazard. In certain scenarios, the bank may prefer not to hold any equity. Our analysis indicates that allowing optimal bank equity participation may foster improved corporate performance. This benefit of universal banking should be considered in policy debates.