R and D tactics: applications of RPD decision analysis

Abstract: The application of RPD decision analysis to R & D tactics is discussed and the role of the technique as an aid to self-consistent decision making is enaphasized. RPD decision analysis is used to define limits to its own cost effectiveness.
Two example problems are analysed in detail. Simple priority ratings are defined for two special cases: the sequence of independent tests all of which must succeed, and the sequence of independent problem solving attempts, any of which may succeed. The compromise between project duration and project cost is analysed in terms of time dependence of the value of success.
The discrimination study is defined as an investigation which aims to provide information for an improved assessment of project success probability.
It is shown that such a study is never worth more than one quarter of the total expected benefits of the project.     

RISK,UTILITY AND STOCKING RATE*

A simple utility-based model of risky wool production is presented. Evaluation of the model indicates the effect on optimal stocking rate of changes in the degree of risk aversion, farm area, variable cost, fixed cost, wool cut, wool price, variance of wool price, climatic variability and tax rate. It is shown that the utility hypothesis implies a lower optimal stocking rate than does expected profit maximization and hence implies a discrepancy between private and public optimal resource use which it is suggested, might be mitigated by a progressive bounty on wool production.     

Exploring deception and puffery in television advertising

Public policy decisions dealing with deceptive advertising have relied extensively on case-by-case adjudication with the Federal Trade Commission. Unfortunately, behavioral evidence has not been considered in the vast majority of these cases. The final determination rests with the Commission’s own expertise in judging an advertisement’s “capacity to deceive.” Consumer response data are not required, although recent developments suggest the FTC is seriously considering the inclusion of meaningful behavioral evidence in policymaking and adjudicative proceedings. This study is one of a series dealing with dimensions of perceived deception across different respondent populations (including students, lawyers, housewives, children, and minority groups). The focus here is on the semantics of deception, i.e., the way in which subjects evaluate selected television commercials which were unofficially rated for deception by FTC staff attorneys. The factor analytic paradigm provides one approach for generating summaries of viewer’s evaluative (affective) responses, and thereby providing some normative or benchmark data of potential value in the regulatory process.     

National Determinants of Family Firm Development? Family Firms in Britain, Spain, and Italy in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries

We provide here a complement to recent work on family business,which has demonstrated the need to go beyond the generic definitionof the family firm to place personal capitalism in an appropriateinstitutional, historical, and cultural framework. By focusingon the nineteenth- and twentieth-century experiences in Britain,Spain, and Italy, we challenge the notion that in the nineteenthand twentieth centuries there was anything so simple as a Mediterraneanmodel for family business. Rather, we demonstrate the need toconsider family businesses in national and regional contextsif we are to understand their various capabilities and characteristics.We use similarities and differences in the experiences and responsesof families and firms in the three countries to support thisclaim.     

An ideal Kyoto protocol: emissions trading, redistributive transfers and global participation

We demonstrate that an interregional policy scheme featuringtrading of carbon dioxide emissions, redistributive resourcetransfers and global participation, a scheme which we call ‘IdealKyoto Protocol’, yields an efficient equilibrium allocationfor a global economy. An altruistic international agency—say,the Global Environment Facility—should operate the resourcetransfer mechanism. In addition, regional governments shouldbe able to make independent policy commitments regarding howto control regional emissions of carbon dioxide in anticipationof the redistributive transfers. Our efficiency result suggeststhat the USA should be ‘bribed’ to reverse its decisionof not participating in the Kyoto Protocol.