THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES: EVIDENCE AND THEORY

Abstract. The term structure of interest rates is an old topic. Over the years, both the hypotheses debated and the research techniques used have changed considerably. Two fairly recent developments which distinguish current research are the widespread adoption of rational expectations and the integration of the term structure with the general theory of asset pricing. This survey reviews previous work from this perspective. The main objective is to catalogue available evidence about term premia and to interpret this evidence in light of alternative models of term premia determination.     

Public engagement through social media: the spending review experience

This paper, relying on three empirical cases of spending reviews carried out in Europe, investigates how social media has been used to engage citizens in spending review processes. The authors explain the differences in levels of engagement between the use of social media (Web 2.0 tools) compared to traditional Web 1.0 tools. Finally, they discuss how government might genuinely listen to its citizens and work with them.     

Fundamental‐based Market Strategies

A significant body of literature has raised the possibility that portfolio outperformance based on a simple accounting‐based investment strategy can persist through time because markets may ignore and potentially misinterpret financial market signals. Employing a fundamental‐based strategy, we show that superior performance can be earned consistently through time by identifying and investing in firms with more favourable performance and credit signals. The strength of these portfolios are additionally characterised by the ability of the strategies to avoid firms with poor future prospects. These findings are robust across varying time periods after both transaction costs and related market constraints are considered.     

Environmental degradation as engine of undesirable economic growth via self-protection consumption choices

We analyze growth dynamics in an economy where the well-being of economic agents depends on three goods: leisure, a free access environmental good and a private good that can be consumed as a substitute for the environmental resource. The processes of production and consumption of the private good by each agent impose negative externalities on other agents through the depletion of the environmental good.This paper shows that, in such context, the existence of private substitutes for environmental goods may fuel an undesirable economic growth process. This process is driven by the continuous increase in agents' needs for private consumption generated by the progressive reduction in free consumption of the environmental good.     

Risky procurement with an insider bidder

Procurement auctions carry substantial risk when the value of the project is highly uncertain and known only to insiders. This paper reports the results from a series of experiments comparing the performance of three auction formats in such complex and risky settings. In the experiment, every bidder knows the private value for the project but only a single insider bidder knows the common-value part. In addition to the standard second-price and English auctions we test the “qualifying auction,” a two-stage format commonly used in the sale of complex and risky assets. The qualifying auction has a fully “revealing” equilibrium that implements the revenue-maximizing outcome but it also has an uninformative “babbling” equilibrium in which bidders place arbitrarily high bids in the first stage. In the experiments, the latter equilibrium has more drawing power, which causes the qualifying auction to perform worse than the English auction and only slightly better than a sealed-bid second-price auction. Compared to the two other formats, the English auction is roughly 40% more efficient, yields 50% more revenues, avoids windfall profits for the insider, while protecting uninformed bidders from losses.     

Medical practice and malpractice litigation in an evolutionary context

We model the interactions between the behaviors of physicians and patients, subject to clinical and legal risks, by means of evolutionary game theory. We propose an original game in which patients may sue their physician for medical malpractice, and physicians have to choose between two alternative treatments, with different levels of benefits and risks. The safer treatment is also the less effective, therefore its provision corresponds, under the assumptions of our model, to practicing negative defensive medicine. We study the Nash equilibria, test their stability in the replicator dynamics, and analyze their welfare properties. We find that the accuracy of the judicial system plays an important role, with possible counter-intuitive effects related to legal reforms. If the court is not sufficiently accurate, defensive medicine can be favored, paradoxically, by an increase in the probability that defensive physicians are sanctioned by the court. A similar outcome can be generated also by an increase in the compensation paid to patients by physicians, when sanctioned for medical malpractice.     

Market Fairness: The Poor Country Cousin of Market Efficiency

Both fairness and efficiency are important considerations in market design and regulation, yet many regulators have neither defined nor measured these concepts. We develop an evidencebased policy framework in which these are both defined and measured using a series of empirical proxies. We then build a systems estimation model to examine the 2003–2011 explosive growth in algorithmic trading (AT) on the London Stock Exchange and NYSE Euronext Paris. Our results show that greater AT is associated with increased transactional efficiency and reduced information leakage in top quintile stocks. For less liquid stocks, manipulation at the close declines. We also document the tradeoff between reduced spreads and increased manipulation or information leakage following the introduction of MiFID1.     

A study on the attributes involved in the hedonic pricing of Brazilian clothing

The objective of this study is to identify the weighted importance of intrinsic and extrinsic attributes. Intrinsic attributes are defined as the specific features of products. Extrinsic attributes refer to other characteristics that are also important for price composition, such as brand, store layout and services, and purchasing experiences. In a survey with 1,923 collected responses, it was possible to identify and quantify intrinsic and extrinsic influencing factors beyond price strategy in the Brazilian fashion market for blue jeans. The statistical analysis was based on the hedonic price method. The idea of expressing the price based on a series of intrinsic and extrinsic variables avoids the problem of using the regression technique. In this research, multiple linear regression and quantile regression were applied. The results show that extrinsic attributes have greater influence than intrinsic features on explaining the final market prices using log-linear and quantile regression statistical methods.     

The earliness of exporting and creeping sclerosis? The moderating effects of firm age,size and centralization

By using a sample of 644 manufacturing firms in four EU countries and five regions, we investigate the earliness/exporting relationship. Firstly, we examine the firm’s ability to retain LAN over time as it gets older and bigger. Secondly, we examine the role played by the firm’s decision-making structure. Our results reveal that exporting sclerosis does set in, as age and size of the firm significantly and negatively affect the earliness/exporting relationship. In addition, however, we find that centralization plays a role in the sclerotic effects of size (though only weakly for age), exacerbating their moderating effects on the earliness/exporting relationship. Our study claims to contribute to internationalization research by advancing the idea that LAN is not path-dependent but subject to liabilities. Beyond age and size, we add the more nuanced “liability of centralization” to boundary conditions for retaining LAN. Theoretical and managerial implications emerge.     

Measuring the cost of economic fluctuations with preferences that rationalize the equity premium

Abstract Lucas (2003) argues that the potential welfare gains from stabilizing the business cycle are small. In fact, he shows that the benefits of eliminating all economic fluctuations are small, especially when compared with the potential gains from other reforms. His estimates are obtained using standard preferences. I show that a model consistent with observed data on asset returns leads to very different conclusions. Calibrating preferences to observed asset market data raises the estimated welfare gains from completely eliminating aggregate fluctuations by approximately two orders of magnitude. Most of the gains, however, come from the elimination of low‐frequency contributions.